1996: Mandela removes Mugabe from power in Zimbabwe?

What if we could butterfly away the fact that Mugabe had supported the ANC and let them use Zimbabwe as a safehaven during Apartheid in S.A?

And after the elections in Zimbabwe of 1995 which are to this date desputed as being anything but democratic. And then having Mandela being openly hostile towards Mugabe which could have culminated in the South African Army being send over the border to Zimbabwe to remove Mugabe from Power by order of Mandela...

What could this have changed in Africa in 1990s? Having a South Africa openly hostile to any dictatorial regime in the continent?
 
Why? Cause South Africa has the strongest millitary and potentialle the strongest economy in the whole continent of Africa.

I meant a great number of Africa states are dictatorships, so if South Africa gets a rep of not liking and over throwing them, South Africa finds it has few friends in Africa, also Mandela and Mugabe are a lot a like, thats really why South Africa has never gone after him, they're the same, leftist black nationalists fighting a all white british left over government for black majority rule, Mugabe went evil and Mandela/ANC didn't but they're brothers in a way so how can the ANC turn on him?
 
The ANC is not likely to turn on Mugabe in 1996 unless the crapstorm that broke out in 2000-01 breaks out then and causes an exodus of Zimbabweans to South Africa. The SANDF at that point had its hands full integrating the various guerrilla groups into the formal army structure. Mandela in 1996 had his hands full, and while a big military victory over Zimbabwe might help him in the short term, South Africa probably wouldn't bother then. The only way I can see this is if South Africa decided to get help to do this, and getting help from the British or Americans will just make more trouble and give Mugabe all the propaganda ammo he needs.
 
What if we could butterfly away the fact that Mugabe had supported the ANC and let them use Zimbabwe as a safehaven during Apartheid in S.A?

And after the elections in Zimbabwe of 1995 which are to this date desputed as being anything but democratic. And then having Mandela being openly hostile towards Mugabe which could have culminated in the South African Army being send over the border to Zimbabwe to remove Mugabe from Power by order of Mandela...

What could this have changed in Africa in 1990s? Having a South Africa openly hostile to any dictatorial regime in the continent?

Read about South African invasion of Lesotho, it was a complete joke. The ANC have ruin the South African army, today South Africa could not fight it way out of a wet paper bag.

HIV infection rate of up to 50 per cent.
Only four of its 168 battle tanks operational.
The 76,000-strong army is so poorly equipped and manned that at present only a single brigade of about 3,000 soldiers could be deployed, according to a briefing given to MPs by Defence Ministry officials.
One battalion of 600 infantry soldiers recently received only £250 for a month's food, ammunition, fuel and other supplies.
The air force runs out of aviation fuel in September of each year because of lack of funding and has to cancel all training sorties. And the navy is worried it will not have enough fit sailors with adequate training to man four new corvettes and three submarines ordered as part of a £4 billion arms procurement package.
"It has become a bit of a farce," said Philip Schalkwyk, the defence spokesman for the opposition Democratic Alliance.
"People think we have first-class armed forces but sadly the opposite is now true.

In short Mugabe would hand Mandela his ass on a plate. Mugabe's 5th Brigade was trained by the North Koreans.

The 5th brigade alone wiped out 20,000 people in Matabeleland...
 
What if we could butterfly away the fact that Mugabe had supported the ANC and let them use Zimbabwe as a safehaven during Apartheid in S.A?
Then you've butterflied away so much of southern African history that Nelson Mandela will never be president of SA.

Really, the 'Front Line States' were very united in their opposition to apartheid, and if you change that, you change everything. IMO.

If you want to change the PoD to say that history up to the ANC taking power stays the same, but that the ANC strongly supports democracy and takes a harder line when Mugabe starts turning into a tinpot dictator (previously he had been a dictator, but a restrained one), then you might, MIGHT get a TL where SA (in conjunction with other southern african democratizing nations) ousts Mugabe to e.g. prevent the US and UK from doing so... I don't see such a TL happening, but it's probably not ASB.
 
Kenny, you're impressed by the 'fighting capacity' of the 5th Brigade, a unit whose great 'accomplishment' was murdering tens of thousands of civilians decades ago?
 
Kenny, you're impressed by the 'fighting capacity' of the 5th Brigade, a unit whose great 'accomplishment' was murdering tens of thousands of civilians decades ago?

I think he's got a point. Zimbabwe's military command practically wrote the book on fighting in the bush. Hell, the SADF had enough of a fiasco when they intervened in Lesotho, and that was WITH Botswana's help.

Regardless of their past, the 5th Brigade is one of the most fanatical and dangerous military forces in Africa. The SADF might be better armed, but shortcomings in army logistics and the lack of public support such a war would recieve in South Africa would end in disaster for South Africa.

Granted, Zimbabwe would probably be screwed over pretty badly in the end...
 
The problems suffered by the SADF in 1996 were largely caused by the integration of the other units. The South African Army fell badly in quality and discipline during the Mandela/Mbeki administrations, but if war was declared, that would be #1 on the list to fix, and in 1996 most of the pre-war SADF leadership remained.

The Fifth Brigade are tough, but remember that they fell apart in the 1990s too. If a mass exodus of people to South Africa comes, many members of the Zimbabwean Army will undoubtedly be among them.
 


Read about South African invasion of Lesotho, it was a complete joke. The ANC have ruin the South African army, today South Africa could not fight it way out of a wet paper bag.

HIV infection rate of up to 50 per cent.
Only four of its 168 battle tanks operational.
The 76,000-strong army is so poorly equipped and manned that at present only a single brigade of about 3,000 soldiers could be deployed, according to a briefing given to MPs by Defence Ministry officials.
One battalion of 600 infantry soldiers recently received only £250 for a month's food, ammunition, fuel and other supplies.
The air force runs out of aviation fuel in September of each year because of lack of funding and has to cancel all training sorties. And the navy is worried it will not have enough fit sailors with adequate training to man four new corvettes and three submarines ordered as part of a £4 billion arms procurement package.
"It has become a bit of a farce," said Philip Schalkwyk, the defence spokesman for the opposition Democratic Alliance.
"People think we have first-class armed forces but sadly the opposite is now true.

In short Mugabe would hand Mandela his ass on a plate. Mugabe's 5th Brigade was trained by the North Koreans.

The 5th brigade alone wiped out 20,000 people in Matabeleland...

Kenny, a few points on this:

1) The HIV infection rate in the armed forces isn't THAT bad. I know that maybe the case in some units of the army, but the Navy and Air Force are far better in this regard.

2) Those main battle tanks are decades old, and were supposed to be replaced in the 2000s, as part of the same rework of the SANDF that saw them buy new APCs, Gripen fighters, frigates and submarines. Those will get replaced eventually, too.

3) With a budget of USD $4.2 Billion in 2009, I don't buy the idea that a battalion only get 250 pounds for a month. I'd like to see where you got that one from. Corruption may hurt in the SA Army, but I do not believe that.

4) Mugabe's forces in 1996 were if anything worse that the South Africans. The South Africans have them outnumbered on size and have better equipment. They have a lot of equipment that needs work badly, but if nay sort of fight was imminent, that work would get done. And as I pointed out, such a war wouldn't happen unless the South Africans got help, and that in itself would mean a major upgrade of the SANDF.

5) Mugabe's Fifth Brigade are trained in intimidation, not warfighting. Killing civilians is not exactly something most soldiers boast about.
 
The problems suffered by the SADF in 1996 were largely caused by the integration of the other units. The South African Army fell badly in quality and discipline during the Mandela/Mbeki administrations, but if war was declared, that would be #1 on the list to fix, and in 1996 most of the pre-war SADF leadership remained.

You go to war with the Army you have, you can't just fix things as you invade a nation.
 
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