Yep. All of this. The idea of Powell being nominated in a post-Lee Atwater Republican primary is farfetched.
The war hero thing is just not gonna be enough. You guys remember what happened in South Carolina in 2000? A bunch of conservatives who were Definitely In No Way Working For Karl Rove absolutely smeared John McCain in the primary. A massive blitz of innuendo, dogwhistles, outright lies, and race-baiting destroyed John McCain’s numbers there. They said he had fathered a “negro” child out of wedlock. That his wife Cindy was a drug addict. He gave VD to his previous wife. In addition to that, he was gay, and supported a “F*g Army.” He was a "Manchurian Candidate.” The war had messed up his brain. He’d abandoned Vietnam vets and POWs.
Colin Powell is black, pro-choice, and has a wife who publicly talked about her struggles with mental illness. Any Republican primary candidate who needed a boost in the polls knew exactly where in the playbook to draw from. And it would work. Especially on abortion, it would devastate his chances. McCain had to move significantly to the right to win in 2008, and he was already more conservative than Powell.
The other problem is that I don’t think Powell would have a base in the Republican primary — there’d be a number of people who liked or respected him, but it’s 1996, foreign policy is not a priority, and while the modern Republicans have always identified as a pro-military party, there’s not really a steadfast Military Guy lane. There’s a Lower Taxes lane. There’s a Stop Abortion lane, etc. But I don’t think Powell would get much first-choice passionate support in a ‘96 primary as a National Defense Republican, and he certainly won’t as a Social Liberal Republican.
But in a general election, he’d do well, much better than Bob Dole, I think. Probably not to the extent of the polls but he could win. It’s nominating him that’s so improbable.