1992 US Presidential Election: Ford (D) vs Duke (R)

(x-post from https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/alternate-electoral-maps-iii.460973/page-48)

I'm going to do something a bit different, this will basically be an alternative timeline, but not a fully fleshed out one. to sum up, the 1992 Presidential election is between David Duke - who barely won the Republican primary after initially finishing in third behind Patrick Buchanan and incumbent President George H.W Bush, who were nearly deadlocked after it was revealed that H.W had some involvement in Iran Contra - however at the convention Duke made a deal with Buchanan whereby if he agreed to name Buchanan as his running mate, Buchanan would get his delegates to vote for Duke and allow him to win the nomination. meanwhile on the Democratic side, popular Kentucky Senator Wendell Ford narrowly defeated Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton and several other more minor candidates to clinch the Democratic nomination. Ford, sensing a possible weakness in the deep South due to Duke's open racism, decided to pick Alabama Senator Richard Shelby, a very centrist Southern Democrat, to help keep the Deep South in Democratic hands. Independent candidate Ross Perot was initially running and sometimes pulling as much as 25-30% in national polls, but when David Duke clinched the Republican nomination, Perot dropped out and endorsed Wendell Ford - believing that defeating the radical white supremacist Duke was far more important than running a third party bid which he knew was quite unlikely to succed in the end. after the party nominations were settled, Ford consistently led Duke in the polls by gargantuan margins, never once falling below the 60% mark in any credible poll and far exceeding that in many others. the day before Election Day, this was the polling map:

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Dark Red states are considered safely in Ford's corner, medium red States appear very likely to vote for Ford but may be somewhat competitive, and pink states appear to be in play for Duke, although with Ford still having the edge. As election day approaches, the only question on anyone's mind is whether Duke will even manage to win a single state or crack 35% of the popular vote. barring an unprecedented, massive polling error, Duke is likely going to lose in the largest landslide since the modern two party system began.


To Be Continued...
 
Alabama Results
I will be showing county results for all 50 states, individually, in alphabetical order. we start off with Alabama, a state where Ford consistently maintained a large lead in the polls due to having popular Alabama Senator Richard Shelby as his running mate.

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In the end, Ford did indeed carry the state by a wide margin - winning by nearly 30% over David Duke. while Alabama had been considered Safe for Ford nearly from the moment he picked Richard Shelby to be his running mate, the final margin has to be very concerning for Duke, and indicates that national polls were indeed accurate in showing that Duke would lose in a historic blowout.

As we can see from the county results, Ford easily won ancestrally Democratic rural white areas, as well as the majority African-American black belt counties, where turnout spiked due to Duke's candidacy, while also doing exceptionally well in the suburban and urban areas, which had gone strongly for Republican George H.W Bush 4 years earlier. Ford even won Shelby County, which has become the most Republican county in the state in recent years, but bucked that trend this time around. Duke was only able to narrowly win two counties, Baldwin (51-49%) and St. Clair (50.2-49.8%). overall these results indicate, as was expected, that Duke is almost certainly going to lose all 50 states - but it's still very early, and only time will tell whether this trend holds throughout the rest of the nation.

Next, we'll be taking a look at Alaska, where Duke had been consistently behind in most polls but was thought to still have some chance of pulling off a victory.
 
I will try to upload at least one county map daily, with analysis as well, until the results for all 50 states are shown. stay tuned!
 
How in the world does David Duke win the Republican presidential nomination with, presumably, a point of divergence in 1991 or 1992?
 
How in the world does David Duke win the Republican presidential nomination with, presumably, a point of divergence in 1991 or 1992?

As I mentioned in the initial post, Duke decided to run sometime in 1991 for whatever reason, rather than running for Governor or Senator instead, and through a bizarre backroom deal with Pat Buchanan, who was deadlocked with George H.W Bush in terms of delegates after Bush's involvement in the Iran Contra scandal was revealed, Duke was able to secure the GOP nomination with Buchanan as his running mate.

I realize this scenario is pretty unrealistic, of course, but it's an interesting concept to me so I decided to do it anyway.
 
As I mentioned in the initial post, Duke decided to run sometime in 1991 for whatever reason...

Duke ran for governor in 1991 and lost. He did get publicity and national name recognition from getting the second spot in the runoff. Without that, he has no national appeal at all.

In 1992 he did run for President. Even with the boost from 1991, his best primary result was 11% in Mississippi. He couldn't break 10% anywhere else (9% in Louisiana; 7% in South Carolina; 3% in Tennessee and Texas; <3% anywhere outside the South). Buchanan outpolled him 2.9M to 119K.

So Duke would never get a serious bloc of delegates. Remember, he couldn't even win in Louisiana. (He narrowly won the nomination in a "jungle primary" after the unpopular incumbent Democrat governor changed parties, claiming to be a Republican.)

And even Buchanan would never touch the likes of Duke with a 10-foot pole.

Also: even if Bush was that damaged by Iran-Contra, Buchanan would not be a serious challenger. Besides which, if "Iran-Contra" was anything, it was an excess of anti-Communist zeal. How would that lead to Buchanan gains? Some other "established" Republican would step in.
 
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Duke ran for governor in 1991 and lost. He did get publicity and national name recognition from getting the second spot in the runoff. Without that, he has no national appeal at all.

In 1992 he did run for President. Even with the boost from 1991, his best primary result was 11% in Mississippi. He couldn't break 10% anywhere else (9% in Louisiana; 7% in South Carolina; 3% in Tennessee and Texas; <3% anywhere outside the South). Buchanan outpolled him 2.9M to 119K.

So Duke would never get a serious bloc of delegates. Remember, he couldn't even win in Louisiana. (He narrowly won the nomination in a "jungle primary" after the unpopular incumbent Democrat governor changed parties, claiming to be a Republican.

And even Buchanan would never touch the likes of Duke with a 10-foot pole.

Also: even if Bush was that damaged by Iran-Contra, Buchanan would not be a serious challenger. Besides which, if "Iran-Contra" was anything, it was an excess of anti-Communist zeal. How would that lead to Buchanan gains? Some other "established" Republican would step in.
Yeah, as I said I realize this couldn't have happened in reality, I just wanted to make a silly timeline as a thinly veiled excuse for an enormous Democratic landslide, I suppose :openedeyewink:
 
Alaska Results
Now we move onto Alaska, where most polls showed Ford ahead by 10-15% by election day...

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In the end, Ford won by about 17% by getting massive margins out of the Native Alaskan areas and Juneau, as well as a decisive win in Anchorage. Duke narrowly won 3 boroughs, all by 2 points or less. this was the first time Alaska had voted Democratic for President since Lyndon Johnson's massive landslide in 1964, and would likely be the last for the foreseeable future.

Next, we'll look at Arizona, a Western state that hasn't gone Democratic since Harry Truman won it in 1948, but which appears very likely to vote for Ford this time around.
 
Now we move onto Alaska, where most polls showed Ford ahead by 10-15% by election day...

ZdOvsjj.png


In the end, Ford won by about 17% by getting massive margins out of the Native Alaskan areas and Juneau, as well as a decisive win in Anchorage. Duke narrowly won 3 boroughs, all by 2 points or less. this was the first time Alaska had voted Democratic for President since Lyndon Johnson's massive landslide in 1964, and would likely be the last for the foreseeable future.

Next, we'll look at Arizona, a Western state that hasn't gone Democratic since Harry Truman won it in 1948, but which appears very likely to vote for Ford this time around.

Is there a program you use to see what counties go blue/red depending on the % the candidate won the state by, or do you do all the calculations by hand?
 
Is there a program you use to see what counties go blue/red depending on the % the candidate won the state by, or do you do all the calculations by hand?
I do all the calculations by hand based on actual election data, but I'm sure there is a program that could do it for you... I'm just not sure what it would be.
 
David Duke getting the nomination for one of the major parties is a sign that something is seriously wrong inside the party. For that matter, Pat Buchanan being on the ticket is enough of a sign of trouble, but when he’s not even the biggest asshole on the ticket, shit is getting bad.
 
Now we move on to Arizona, a state that hasn't gone Democratic since 1948 and has been far more Republican than that nation at large in nearly every election since then. Duke did attempt to contest this state, holding a couple rallies here in the past week, but it doesn't seem he was very successful...

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In the end, Ford swept every county in the state and won overall with a 17% margin of victory statewide. Ford performed very strong with Native American and Hispanic voters, who turned out at a far higher rate than in past elections due to Duke's ties to white supremacy. Ford easily won ancestrally Democratic rural counties like Greenlee and Gila, while also doing very well in more populous counties like Pima and Maricopa - Ford's 9.5-point win in Maricopa and 25-point win in Pima, when combined with his strong showing in rural areas, was enough to power him to a 17-point victory statewide. the fact that Duke contested this state and still only just barely received more than 40% of the vote is another terrible sign for his campaign - it's looking more and more likely that Duke will indeed lose all 50 states, looking at these returns.

Next, we'll move onto Arkansas, which is expected to go strongly for Ford and has largely been ignored by both campaigns for that reason. Bill Clinton, the runner-up in the Democratic primary and popular Governor of the state has went all in for Ford and campaigned heavily for him, so that will likely give him a boost there as well. but exactly how well will Ford perform in Bill Clinton's home state? ...

Stay Tuned...
 
Arkansas Results
Now we move on to Arkansas, Ford has consistently been ahead in the polls here by landslide margins, no doubt in part because Bill Clinton has been campaigning hard for him ever since he gave his concession speech/endorsement at the DNC a few months ago. despite the electorate here looking better on paper for Duke than most other states, there's been little doubt that Ford would overwhelmingly carry this ancestral Democratic stronghold.

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Ford won here with nearly 70% of the vote, only narrowly losing a single county (Benton) to Duke. Ford performed strongly across the state, particularly in and around the Delta, where the black vote was energized and most white voters still rejected Duke's extremism. Ford won 16 counties with over 80% of the vote, his best county being Woodruff, where he won with 88.7% to Duke's 11.3%. this was the best performance by a Democratic Presidential candidate in terms of vote percentage since FDR in 1944, and the best in terms of margin of victory since Harry Truman's performance 4 years later - it's notable that given the results we've seen so far, it does not appear that Southern whites are flocking to Duke, but perhaps it'll be a different story once we start to see results from more racially polarized states like Mississippi and Duke's home state of Louisiana.

Next, we turn to the West Coast with California, a state where Duke is expected to possibly have one of his worst performances anywhere, in spite of Southern California's reputation as the birthplace of the Reaganite movement, Duke has shown a complete ability to appeal to any key demographic in the state and has consistently never got more than 25% in recent polls of the state. so, just how bad will Duke do in the Golden State? stay tuned to find out.
 
I do all the calculations by hand based on actual election data, but I'm sure there is a program that could do it for you... I'm just not sure what it would be.
Would you mind posting/pming me those calculations? How/where do you factor in things like ethnicity in state/counties?
 
Would you mind posting/pming me those calculations? How/where do you factor in things like ethnicity in state/counties?
I don't factor in ethnicity, at least not for these particular county maps. what I'm doing for this project, for the most part, is taking already existing election data for obscure statewide offices (State Treasurer, SoS, etc) and re-purposing it for this scenario. now, I'll also be creating some state maps from scratch for this, and for that what I'll do is start with an already existing election, apply the necessary swing so I get the margin I want, and then calculate what the vote totals for the candidates would have been in that scenario.
 
California Results
Now we move to California, a state that has been widely predicted to be one of Duke's worst in the nation - and that's really saying something.

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Ford won by a near 48-point margin, sweeping every county, including Orange and Sutter which haven't voted Democratic since 1936 and 1940, respectively. Ford ran especially strong in the Bay Area, keeping Duke below 10% of the vote in San Francisco and Alameda Counties. the third party vote was quite high here, with about 7% of the vote going to various independent candidates, which is notable since in the majority of states, Duke and Ford were the only candidates on the ballot. overall this result is exactly in line with what polls had been showing, and, as usual, a very bad sign for the Duke campaign.


Next, we move to Colorado, another state that appears to be safe for Ford, in spite of its status as a Republican-leaning state in recent decades.
 
Colorado Results
Now we move on to the Rocky Mountain state, a state which has pretty consistently been more Republican than the national average since the 1950s, but where David Duke has struggled to crack 30% in most polls.

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As was expected, Duke loses Colorado by a landslide 33-point margin and has failed to garner a majority of the vote in even a single county, making this the first time in history that a Democrat has swept all of Colorado's counties in a Presidential election. Ford performed exceptionally well in the rural Hispanic-heavy counties along the border with New Mexico, as well as in the suburbs, nearly cracking 80% in Denver County. Ford also strongly over-performed in rural white areas, which is probably not too surprising given Duke's performance in the other states whose results we've seen so far. this is the third state (out of six which have been reported thus far) where Ford has won every county, the other two being fellow Western states California and Arizona.

Next, we'll move to a state where Duke is almost certainly going to fail to crack 30% of the vote - Connecticut.
 
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