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PoD circa 1985.

Assuming George HW Bush still wins 1988 after eight years of Reagan, how would the 1992 US elections be affected had the Soviet Union survived?
A few scenarios to work with:

SCENARIO 1: Eastern Bloc still collapses in 1989-90, but the USSR survives under reformist leadership. Soviet combat troops still withdraw from Afghanistan in 1989. From 1991 - 1992, the New Union Treaty is adopted by nine of the fifteen SSRs. While Armenia, Georgia, Moldova, and the Baltics secede, Russia, Ukranine, Belarus, and the Central Asian SSRs remain to form the Union of Sovereign Soviet Republics.
This new USSR is a much more liberal, democratic state than it’s predecessor (though it’s far from perfect). US-Soviet relations have improved dramatically from just a few years prior, though there continue to be disagreements over issues such as the wars in Yugoslavia and Soviet arms sales to Iran.

SCENARIO 2: Similar to the above in that the East Bloc collapses in 1989; however, a coup by Soviet hardliners in early 1991 succeeds in taking control of the Union. New leadership is hostile to the United States and NATO. Former East Bloc states heavily lobby for NATO membership.

SCENARIO 3: USSR and Warsaw Pact survive with moderate political and economic reforms. Soviets withdraw from Afghanistan in 1989. Soviets still able to directly threaten Western Europe, but East-West relations are fairly good. Both sides pursue policies of detente, deconfliction, and disarmament, particularly in regard to the Yugoslav wars, the Gulf War, and proxy conflicts across the globe.

SCENARIO 4: USSR and Warsaw Pact survive under hardline leadership. Soviet leadership hostile and confrontational toward NATO. Soviet tanks directly threaten Western Europe. Pro-democracy movements in East Germany and Poland are brutally stamped out. Soviet combat troops remain in Afghanistan. Proxy wars rage across the globe. Failure of INF negotiations in 1987 butterflies START I and CFE, meaning US and USSR still engaged in massive arms buildup and arms race. In 1990, the Soviet Union diplomatically supports the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. In early 1992, the Warsaw Pact invades Yugoslavia after that state disintegrates into civil war. US-Soviet tensions higher than any point since Cuban missile crisis.

I feel like you would probably see a Democratic victory in the case of Scenario 1. Scenario 3 could go either way; Bush might be credited for better relations, but there might also be less of a focus on foreign relations thanks to that. Scenario 2, they might go either way as well, though for different reasons. Scenario 4 I feel would almost assure a Bush victory as the US votes for a strong, experienced leader to stand up to the Soviets.

Might we see an alternate Democratic nominee in any of these scenarios? If so, who?

How would Ross Perot fare in this scenario? What would his Cold War campaign policies be like?
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