1991 Persian Gulf War

[csa945]

1992 Persian Gulf War

Was there any specific reason that Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait when he did? More specifically, is there any reason that would have prevented him from waiting one year?

I have an idea for a TL based upon that, but I'd rather not post it if the premise is completely ridiculous.

 

[Dave Howery]

he could have been dissuaded from attacking by more firm American statements. I don't recall the exact details, but apparently an American representative didn't make it clear to Saddam that if he invaded Kuwait, we wouldn't tolerate it. If she had said, "no, you can't invade Kuwait.. if you do, make no mistake, we'll get a coalition together and kick you out and then go to Baghdad and remove you from power", it likely would have given him pause... either permanently, or maybe for the year you are looking for....

 

[csa945]

In that case, then, these were my thoughts. They're pretty sketchy.

If Saddam had invaded a year later (and the Gulf War had taken place in generally the same fashion), George H W Bush would be able to ride his astronomical approval ratings through the '92 election. Republicans in both houses of Congress ride his coattails to a majority.

In the '96 Republican primaries, Colin Powell defeats Dan Quayle and later defeats Mario Cuomo in a landslide. Senator Richard Lugar of Indiana is VP.

In 1998, after a number of Al-Qaeda attacks around the world, President Powell proposes military action against the Taliban in Afghanistan to the UN Security Council, which drafts authorizing its removal.

Later in 2001, after Powell's re-election against Dick Gephart, it was discovered that Kim Jong Il of North Korea had gone back on agreements made in 1995. In 2002, after a year of diplomatic failures, the 1953 armistice was revoked and UN forces crossed the DMZ, supported by Chinese and Russian troops from the north. Kim Jong Il launched nuclear missiles at Seoul, Beijing, Tokyo, Vladivostok, and Seattle. The last of these was intercepted by the US missile defense shield.

I do have some blanks that need to be filled in: like what happens 1992-98, other than elections.

 

[aktarian]

Was there any specific reason that Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait when he did? More specifically, is there any reason that would have prevented him from waiting one year?

Well, main reasons were economical (huge debt Kuwait refused to cancell) and need to use military that had experience. But I guess waiting couple of years is plausible. In fact waiting till 1993 would be Saddam's best move.

 

[csa945]

In fact waiting till 1993 would be Saddam's best move.

Yeah for the purposes of this TL, it would need to be late 1991/early 1992. If that's not plausible, I could just nix the whole thing.

 

[aktarian]

Yeah for the purposes of this TL, it would need to be late 1991/early 1992. If that's not plausible, I could just nix the whole thing.

I was thinking about Bosnia. But your timeframe is realistic.

 

[Thande]

I think the main reason is that the Iran-Iraq War had drained Iraq's coffers - Saddam basically said to the Kuwaitis "give me all your money now now now!", they said no, and he invaded, not believing the rather vaccilating American and UN statements. As simple as that.

 

[aktarian]

I don't know how much this is important but IIRC in 1991 Ramadan was around november.

 

[BurningWickerman]

Kim Jong Il launched nuclear missiles at Seoul, Beijing, Tokyo, Vladivostok, and Seattle. The last of these was intercepted by the US missile defense shield.

Was Kim jong Il just searching for coins in the back of his sofa in the mid-90's when he went 'hey heres a bunch of nuclear technicians and weapon grade pluntonium in the back of my sofa. Oh and whats this behind the coffe table. Oh a Inter Continental Ballisitic Missile system. And look at this, enough money to build missile silos that no one can see.'

Theirs a reason why only 5 countries on Earth have ICBM missiles capable of delivering a nuclear warhead. The mere cost of developing nukes alone would be enough to destroy North Koreas economy like a skinny twig.

N.Korea can barely afford to feed their population at the moment.

 

[Kadyet]

Only three countries have ICBMs actually. US, China, and Russia. All the others have smaller missiles.

 

[BurningWickerman]

Only three countries have ICBMs actually. US, China, and Russia. All the others have smaller missiles.

And the UK and France.

 

[Thande]

With the usual question mark over Israel.

 

[csa945]

The mere cost of developing nukes alone would be enough to destroy North Koreas economy like a skinny twig.

N.Korea can barely afford to feed their population at the moment.

Maybe you haven't been paying attention to the news for the past few years, but N. Korea does have nuclear weapons.

I'm not positive about N. Korea's abilities to hit Seattle, but I have heard multiple sources that state they have missiles capable of reaching the US West Coast.

 

[BurningWickerman]

Maybe you haven't been paying attention to the news for the past few years, but N. Korea does have nuclear weapons.

I'd like too know where you've been getting your news from.



They may have tried to make nukes. And failed repeatedly. They are and have never been anywhere near developing nukes.




http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=34341

 

[csa945]

I'd like too know where you've been getting your news from.

Will these be enough for you, or do I need to get more links? Maybe you didn't see the news about that enormous explosion in North Korea a few months ago -- I suppose it's possible that it could have been something like a few tonnes of conventional explosives, but not likely.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200501/s1291170.htm

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=adu1wMPJ101A&refer=japan

http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/SITE/data/html_dir/2005/01/24/200501240004.asp

http://newstandardnews.net/content/?action=show_item&itemid=1064

http://joongangdaily.joins.com/200501/26/200501262241583209900090309031.html

http://english.yna.co.kr/Engnews/20050122/301100000020050122183917E9.html

 

[Grimm Reaper]

csa945, it wasn't a nuclear explosion. As to whether NK has a few nukes, I would presume so. Another great accomplishment for Jimmy Carter.

Also, it's communism that has rendered NK destitute, not the cost of developing nukes or missles. No one can doubt that Japan or South Korea could do so without looking remotely like Pyongyang.


Thande, I doubt it. Israel would not have much to gain by building a handful of never-to-be-tested missles.

 

[BurningWickerman]

Print Email
Last Update: Friday, January 28, 2005. 1:24pm (AEDT)
North Korea has 'bought nuclear bomb'
North Korea has bought a complete nuclear weapon from either Pakistan or a former Soviet Union state, a South Korean newspaper has reported.

The newspaper Seoul Shinmun quoted an unnamed source as saying the United States was checking the intelligence.

 

[atlantabraves]

Maybe you haven't been paying attention to the news for the past few years, but N. Korea does have nuclear weapons.

I'm not positive about N. Korea's abilities to hit Seattle, but I have heard multiple sources that state they have missiles capable of reaching the US West Coast.

They may have nukes. They do NOT have an ICBM with a nuke.

 

[BurningWickerman]

Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) -- North Korea told a delegation of U.S. lawmakers visiting the country it has completed its nuclear weapons program, Nikkei English News reported, citing Representative Curt Weldon.

Because N.Korea always tells the truth.

Kerry took advantage of Thursday’s forum to echo this concern, accusing Bush of diverting resources to Iraq while doing little to prevent North Korea from seeking nuclear weapons.

According to John Feffer, author of the book North Korea/South Korea: US Policy and the Korean Peninsula, one of the major reasons North Korea is developing nuclear weapons

A top North Korean official told a U.S. delegation visiting the communist state that it possesses nuclear weapons, the first official acknowledgement according to some analysts, a U.S. radio station reported.

But some South Korean experts and a senior government official played down the remarks.

"The credibility of the remarks should be checked thoroughly first," said a senior ministry official, requesting anonymity.

The official noted there have been many cases of North Korean officials withdrawing their statements over nuclear weapons possession.

He said North Korea stressed that it could discard its nuclear ambitions if the United States gives up its "hostile policy" and promised the survival of its regime.

But Kang Jung-min, a nuclear expert at Seoul National University, was quoted as saying by Yonhap news agency that it is highly likely for the North to develop crude nuclear weapons aimed at targeting U.S. bases in South Korea.


SEOUL, Jan. 22 (Yonhap) -- North Korea declared its possession of nuclear weapons to a U.S. congressional delegation that visited there recently, a U.S. government radio station said Saturday.

Radio Free Asia said Curt Weldon, vice chairman of the U.S. House Armed Services Committee, made the claim in a briefing on the outcome of his recent trip to North Korea in Washington Wednesday.

Never actual proof or a properly recorded quote. This Curt Weldon guy seems to be the only one who heard this quote.

 

[Susano]

Matter of fact, Saddam even had a valid casus belli.
The Kuwaitis were drilling vertcially across the borders, thus pumping IRAQI oil...