1991 Iraqi Revolution and Beyond

Good ideas but needs some polishing, a little better idea of which personalities fall where, of how loyalties match up. I do not see a clean break after Saddam's quick fall, with Baathist insurgents and Iranian supported militias jousting for power.

And I am okay with calling Saddam 'Stalinist', if only because of the mustaches :D
 
Good ideas but needs some polishing, a little better idea of which personalities fall where, of how loyalties match up. I do not see a clean break after Saddam's quick fall, with Baathist insurgents and Iranian supported militias jousting for power.

And I am okay with calling Saddam 'Stalinist', if only because of the mustaches :D

Moustache is one of the few things that Stalin and Saddam Hussein had in common the other being self-centered.
Stalin for all his lack of scruples was at least consumate politician and Soviet Union became stronger with his inhumane and heavy-handed tactics. Price for that was of course the gulag, forced industralization and red terror.
Hussein OTOH was simply incompetent nutcase with delusions of grandeur who handily messed up every war he started. And his older son was completely bonkers.
 
Good ideas but needs some polishing, a little better idea of which personalities fall where, of how loyalties match up. I do not see a clean break after Saddam's quick fall, with Baathist insurgents and Iranian supported militias jousting for power.

Thanks for the advice. Yes, Iraq won't be stable but it'll probably be better than in the OTL Iraq War.
 
I'll be watching this with baited breath. Consider me subscribed. :cool:

Maybe this time the clusterfluck that is the IMN (the Iraqi Media Network, aka al-Iraqiyya can be avoided. IIRC the original plan, as per the 2003-04 plans, was to make the IMN something like the BBC; that plan faltered completely when it turned out that the Coalition Provisional Authority didn't really like criticism coming from their own public broadcaster so that got muted fast. Maybe this time it can be different, and building on the foundations of the old Broadcasting Service of the Republic of Iraq (which was part of the Iraqi Broadcasting and Television Establishment). According to the 1991 WRTH, the BSRoI had:
  • For radio:
    • a General Service in Arabic using MW, FM, and SW, including a special programme for Egypt on its SW frequencies
    • the Voice of the Masses, which IIRC was Iraq's answer to Egypt's Voice of the Arabs, on MW and SW, including special programming for Saudi Arabia (2 hour blocks max.) on SW
    • an FM service, called "FM Radio Baghdad", which had music along with news in English, Kurdish, Assyrian, and Turkmen (actually Azerbaijani, but in Iraq all Azeris are called "Turkmen")
    • and the Foreign Service in Arabic, Azerbaijani, English, French, German, Hebrew, Kurdish, Persian, Russian, and Spanish, as well as the "Voice of Peace" aimed at US Forces
  • For television:
    • Apparently there were two channels, listed simply as the 1st Programme and the 2nd Programme, both of which had somewhat decent coverage. There was also a regional programme emanating from a transmitter in Al-Taamin (modern-day Kirkuk). All were broadcast on SECAM-B&G, what is also known amongst home video buffs as "MESECAM" due to the unique video recording format devised for the Middle Eastern market.
Yet the Library of Congress country study back in the late 1980s mentions that there were also government-owned commercial TV stations in the major Iraqi cities, with the WRTH does not show, whilst the rest is largely faithful to the WRTH presentation (the languages on the Foreign Service are slightly different, however). Regardless, maybe the BSRoI can be salvaged and reformed to be an actual public broadcaster, complete with licence fees and the like.

Also, in terms of the government, how will post-Saddam Iraq be organized in TTL? Will it be like post-1994 South Africa in OTL? Will it be a variation of the Iranian system? Will it be something different?
 
Good ideas but needs some polishing, a little better idea of which personalities fall where, of how loyalties match up. I do not see a clean break after Saddam's quick fall, with Baathist insurgents and Iranian supported militias jousting for power.

Yes, but remember at the time Islamic extremism was an unpopular ideology. Extremism wouldn't be so widespread and so that would mean a more stable Iraq.
 
As butterflies, I heard that deosing Saddam would increase Bush Sr's popularity. Maybe he gets re-elected in 1992.
 
Thing is what really hurt him was:


"Read my lips: No New Taxes!"


Although anything is possible.


Yes, probably. Just I heard that a longer Gulf War would distract people from taxes. And it did look bad if Saddam got called the new Hitler and Bush only did half the job, along with letting thousands die.
 
Storms After The Storm
Post-Revolutionary Iraq


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In the wake of Saddam's fall, the old Sunni order was toppled. Over 400,000[1] US troops occupied Iraq and secured Baghdad and Basra. Initially, chaos erupted. Shi'ite militias ran rampant across Iraq. However, within weeks order was restored. US troops took the government offices and guards were sent to protect the Baghdad Museum.

The new interim government restored order to Iraq. Ahmad Chalabi was interim President and Ibrahim al-Jafaari was Prime Minister. The army was re-organised. Ba'ath party supporters were rooted out. It was agreed that Saddam Hussein would be tried by Iraqis, with the trial starting in April 1992. Elections were arranged for July 1993.

The issue of Kurdistan became very tense in the following years. Jalal Talabani and Massoud Barzani refused to relinquish Kurdish independence. Chalabi in turn refused to recognise Kurdistan. Turkey threatened to intervene in order to crush the 'Kurdish terrorists'.
Most of northern Iraq, including Kirkuk, was under Kurdish control. The Kurds declared Kirkuk capital of the Republic of Kurdistan.

Violence renewed in Iraq. Sunni militias began a wave of bombing attacks against US forces. Tikrit and Anbar Province were the most violent regions. In Baghdad, Ba'athists began attacks on Shi'ite militias. Shi'ites, supported by Iran, responded with retalitory attacks on Sunnis. The US troops moved in and began a surge to Tikrit. Most violence was quelled, for the moment.

US bases were established in Baghdad, Tikrit, Basra and across Central Iraq. In 1992, US elections were held. President George H.W.Bush lost with 40% of the vote against Democrat Bill Clinton. The new Clinton administration announced a plan for Iraq. By 1994, the majority of US troops would leave Iraq, with roughly 50,000 to stay and keep security in Iraq. The Clinton administration would work to secure security and democracy in Iraq. Funding and arms were sent to Iraq.

Most of Saddam's chemical arsenal was found and destroyed by the US. Chemical facilities were demolished and closed. Chemical weapons were handed over to the UN and dismantled. Evidence was found of Saddam's nuclear program. Much of this was handed over to the UN. However, rumour had it that parts of Iraq's nuclear and chemical weapons program fell into Iranian hands.

Elections were indeed held in Iraq in 1993. Ahmad Chalabi ran for the Iraqi National Congress(INC). Prime Minister Jafaari ran for the Dawa Party. Former Ba'athist Ayad Allawi also ran. Tariq al-Hashimi ran as candidate for the Iraqi Islamic Party(IIP). In the end, Chalabi gained a term as President, while Jafaari became Prime Minister. Allawi gained the vice presidency. Iraq's first elections endured intimidation and attacks on booths, and proved to be a turning point in Iraq's history turning it towards democracy.

Meanwhile, in the north, the Kurdistan War was about to begin. In 1992, the US organised the Geneva Talks between Kurdistan and Iraq. These failed to solve the Kurdistan issue. Talks bogged down on Kurdistan's level of autonomy or where an autonomous zone would be. Turkey repeatedly declared it would use force to crush an independent Kurdistan 'if necessary'. In Kurdistan, Barzani's Kurdistan Democratic Party(KDP) rivalled Talabani's Patriotic Union of Kurdistan(PUK). In August 1994, Iraq walked out of the Geneva Talks. The peshmerga mobilised for war with Iraq and Turkey. In November, war erupted. President Chalabi vowed to crush the Kurds, declaring " We shall not tolerate the terrorists" Iraq began a bombing campaign against the Kurds. The Iraqi army advanaced north, taking Kirkuk. The peshmerga continued guerilla resistance against Iraqi forces. From the north, Turkey intervened, sweeping into northern Iraq and capturing Mosul. Thousands of Kurds fled in the wake of the war. The Kurdistan War continued into 1995 and the peshmerga made an offensive south, re-taking Kirkuk. Turkish troops meanwhile were bogged down and made an offensive towards Erbil. The Kurdistan War continued to cause instability in Iraq and the Middle East...

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What do you think?

[1]There were 550,000 US troops in Saudi Arabia in 1991.

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Next up; More of the Kuredistan War.

Also, I think a democratic Iraq could result in an earlier Arab Spring by being a model to the Mid-East.
 
:):)What do you think will happen in Iraq and kurdistan?

While I would love an independent Kurdistan, I suspect Kurdish independence will fail and the suppression of the movement will be a blot on Iraq's fledgling democracy.

And, I do kind of like the idea of an early Arab Spring.
 
What would an earlier Arab Spring be like? Would there be revolutions in other places, like Algeria? Would it be more successful?

Also, what would Hillary Clinton's presidency be like?
 
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