1990s goes better for Russia

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: After 1900' started by Noscoper, Jun 12, 2019 at 5:45 PM.

  1. Noscoper Well-Known Member

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    Anyway the 1990s could go better for Russia with it remaining within it's otl borders

    How much improve of Russian situation during the 1990s could there be

    would having the 1993 russian constitutional crisis going the other way or killing Yeltsin during the early 90s work

    If the 1990s went better how would Russia look like by modern times
     
    History Learner likes this.
  2. Freedom2018 Well-Known Member

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    Jul 22, 2018
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    India
    Killing Yeltsin would be the last thing Russia needs for stability, he did play an important role in holding Russia together after the collapse of USSR although he was responsible for it in the first place.
    Getting back to the topic Yeltsin is not actually the main and sole problem although he was a BIG PROBLEM , but what made things worse for Russia was
    A) Shock therapy treatment of 1992-1993 allegedly done to bring out the hidden inflation within the economy but all it did was cause the collapse of the economic system which lead to the 1993 constitutional crises of October , remove shock therapy you pretty much remove the major cause of economic collapse .
    Instead have a more spread out more gradual process of economic reform say first introduce tariff reforms , make foreign exchange reforms after a comprehensive banking restructuring not the other way around

    B ) The Soviet system of government which was not at all suitable for modern times and goes against the idea of Russia as a nation state . The system could not respond to the fast emerging challenges and had even granted Yeltsin large degree of power to make economic reforms . To give an example the central bank of Russia was a organ under parliament.

    The solution to this is to reach a political understanding with the deputies of the Congress to darft a new constitution for Russia over a period of two to three years and preferably agree on outline of the new political system such as the kind of government, the rights of persons etc . But given the political environment this is easier said than done.

    C) The commitment to cold war of the Soviet union
    I don't think I need to elaborate on this but to put it in short factory that produces tanks and missiles cannot produce Kitchen utensils or television they can but they take time and lot of money .
    The solution is well to maintain the huge Soviet military. This is not that hard to achieve surprisingly, just butterfly away the August coup and Allow the new union treaty which was similar to the treaty on creation of CIS , the reason why CIS failed is because the coup made the union centre loose a lot of political capital thus justifying the destruction of the union and so with it socio economic political relationship between the republics . By keeping the union together atleast economically and a military on basis of mutual defence like NATO the vast military industrial complex does not suffer a catastrophe but suffers hard times .

    D) collapse of the USSR
    Well the Soviet union was a huge market and resources super power the splitting of the union went with it both of the advantages so a successor union which based on a customs , market and currency union could prevent the loss of market and strengthen the bargaining power

    E) the planned socialist economic system

    The system was not compatible with the capitalist mode of production for that you need laws on contract , property, transaction and other commercial aspects , laws on banking insurance, laws on corporate governance, a well regulated securities market , a independent judiciary and some functioning democary , the Russia of the 1990s had none of those laws or institution, it tried to make reforms which was more suited for a country like India which had the basic structure of a market economy but suffers from over regulations but Russia the case was absence of these requirements.
    Another important aspect which many people forget is Finally, there is to the human dimension the failure of post-Soviet reforms in Russia. The former Soviet population was not necessarily uneducated. Literacy was nearly universal, and the educational level of the Soviet population was among the highest in the world with respect to science, engineering, and some technical disciplines, although the Soviets devoted little to what would be described as "liberal arts in the West or management techniques For example, former state enterprise managers were highly skilled at coping with the demands on them under the Soviet system of planned production targets, but discouraged the risk-and-reward centered behavior of market capitalism. These managers were responsible for a broad array of social welfare functions for their employees, their families, and the population of the towns and regions where they were located.
    Which brings us to another big problem the Soviet enterprises An obstacle, partly related to the sheer vastness and geographical diversity of the Russian landmass, was the sizable number of "mono-industrial" regional economies (regions dominated by a single industrial employer) that Russia inherited from the Soviet Union. The concentration of production in a relatively small number of big state enterprises meant that many local governments were entirely dependent on the economic health of a single employer; when the Soviet Union collapsed and the economic ties between Soviet republics and even regions were severed, the production in the whole country dropped by more than fifty percent. Roughly half of Russia's cities had only one large industrial enterprise, and three fourths had no more than four.Consequently, the decrease in production caused tremendous unemployment and underemployment.
    There is no solution for this from the government apart from creating the economic and commercial institution the actual working depends upon the people of Russia and their willingness to live under a new system

    F) Low oil and commodities prices during the 1990s
    Nothing can be done about this

    G) privatization

    In the Soviet era all enterprises belonged to the state and were supposed to be equally owned among all citizens. Privatization transferred much of this wealth into the hands of a few, making them immensely rich. Stocks of the state-owned enterprises were issued, and these new publicly traded companies were quickly handed to the members of former knowCPSU or criminal bosses. For example, the director of a factory during the Soviet regime would often become the owner of the same enterprise. During the same period, violent criminal groups often took over state enterprises, clearing the way by assassinations or extortion. Corruption of government officials became an everyday rule of life. Under the government's cover, outrageous financial manipulations were performed that enriched the narrow group of individuals at key positions of the business and government Mafia . Many took billions in cash and assets outside of the country in an enormous capital flight

    The largest state enterprises were controversially privatized by President Boris Yeltsin to insidersfor far less than they were worth.Many Russians consider these infamous "oligarchs" to be thieves. Through their immense wealth, the oligarchs wielded significant political influence.

    The solution to this is to have a transparent and simplified privatization process with judicial and Parliamentary oversight

    If these obstacle are overcome them Russia will not avoid a recession , its economy would shrink by 15-20 percent at best so by 1998 the size of the economy would be around 600 billion by exchange rate and a trillion dollars by ppp . Say post 1998 if the government is successful in establishing the institution needed for the Market economy And is able to keep the old Soviet union markets it can grow fast from 1999- 2008 at 8-9 percent per anum 2009 would be a bad year if the great recession does take place but it's got to happen at some point . If the Russian central bank is prudent in its foreign exchange exposure then Russian federation won't be hit that badly but the growth momentum is lost and will grow at the rate of 4-5 percent per anum . No Ukraine crises because Ukraine has firmly anchored with Russia if the Russian are able to sacrifice some of its interest in return for Ukrainian co operation.