1984: The Year of Three Elections And How They Changed The World
An Alternate History by
Lawrence Watson
NEW ZEALAND
"I think that everyone agrees that Muldoon's handling of the economy was disastrous. His National Government really did stand for privilege and that was something I hoped we would remedy and I feel we took steps to do so, but we didn't go far enough." - Roger Douglas
"Muldoon was increasingly a lonely figure. On the fateful night that he called the election, he'd clearly been drinking, and I think his diabetes and the fact that he'd had too much to drink cloud his judgement when Marilyn Wareing told him she was backing Labour's nuclear free bill, he lost his temper and blundered into an election he couldn't possibly win." - Richard Harman
"It was absolutely unprecedented in the history of New Zealand. Muldoon created the crisis entirely by himself, denied there was a crisis, and then when it became obvious there was a crisis, refused to do anything to fix it. He just stood there like King Canute, saying everyone is wrong but me." - David Lange
GREAT BRITAIN
"When the Falklands War went sour, I think it became obvious that she was going to carry on till the end of the Parliament. She thought the Alliance would eventually lose steam and that voters would continue to trust her over Michael Foot. We felt the momentum building for us from the start. It was a thrilling campaign and we felt like we were finally going to be able to do things the right way, unlike in the 70s." - Shirley Williams
"When we held rallies and walkabouts, voters treated her with either disdain or indifference. I thought they were being very ungrateful to the Prime Minister who did the best possible job with the war. Certainly better than what Michael Foot would've done. I thought these people must've taken leave of their senses." - Alan Clark
"Most of us saw it coming. Some of the smarter ones ratted to the Social Democrats. Many of the rest of us fought on, hoping that voters would see that with Michael's stance on the war, that we really could be trusted with defending the country. We just forgot that people still didn't like us very much... The bastards." - Denis Healey
THE UNITED STATES
"Reagan thought we were in for a nice, easy campaign. Everyone liked him, everything was just moving along fine. The Democrats couldn't find a top tier candidate, and they knew they were in for one of those "growing pains" elections that parties sometimes have to go through. Then the shit hit the fan." - Ed Rollins
"Absolutely no one thought he would run. They were going around thinking it was going to be Mondale or John Glenn. A few people even asked me. No one believed Teddy would make a go of it this time, not after 1980." - Mo Udall
"By the time of the conventions, we'd already seen the Reagan Administration went from inevitable winners, to maybe not. I think that possibility had most journalists salivating. I think in retrospect we may have enjoyed the show a bit more than we should've, but it was amazing theater." - Bob Schieffer.
They're going to be very important within the year to follow as I'm basically going through these stories in 1984 and will wrap it up with a "what happened after" when we finish.
On the night of June 14, 1984, a slurring, shambling Robert Muldoon called a general election to take place in the next month. While this would not be unusual in and of itself, most agree that Muldoon's decision was an impulsive and ultimately reckless one. When reporters asked National Party President Sue Wood when she found out about the early election, she replied that afternoon, but before she could elaborate, Muldoon cut her off and said they'd been discussing it "for quite some time". At the end of the impromptu press conference, Muldoon chuckled all the way down the hall.
But this was no laughing matter. Muldoon's decision to impose a price and wage freeze, keeping New Zealand's economy in a state of suspended animation and leading to an overvalued dollar was ripe to be run on. An election announcement triggered just such an emergency and while most of New Zealand remained unaware of what was going on, Muldoon ignored the frantic pleas from bank officials such as Roderick Deane and Bernie Galvin to devalue the currency, and soon there would be barely enough money left to continue running the government. Through this entire time, the Bank of New Zealand never warned David Lange, Roger Douglas, or any of the other leading figures within the Labour Party. According to Deane, the integrity of the Bank was paramount and that they never send reports to the Opposition.
The National Party campaign was a difficult one. Muldoon seemingly lacked the energy to fight the campaign from the start, and National was relying heavily on the old fashioned rallies. From the start, Muldoon faced half-empty halls and jeers. It wasn't just the crisis with the currency, but Muldoon's government ignored or disdained the pressure of societal changes such as gay and indigenous rights. The National Party, specifically Muldoon, did not want to discuss the issue of nuclear power and weapons, which was at the time, becoming a hot button issue elsewhere. Muldoon's government of the "ordinary bloke" was no longer holding in such turbulent times with the failures of projects like Think Big, which was meant to make New Zealand more energy independent after the oil crisis, and massive social upheaval.
On the Labour side, things were much more well organized. On the whole, the Labour leadership was younger, more energetic, offering fresh thinking. However, everything wasn't completely sunshine and roses. Labour wasn't an internally stable party as two sides fought for control of the party. The chance to gain power in 1984 meant that the factional battle could be put aside, but there were two very specific camps in Labour with two vastly different schools of thought.
One side was represented by Roger Douglas. Douglas was a diminutive, mustached, fox-like looking man who had spent most of his parliamentary career trying to change Labour's economic thinking. Douglas had been a cabinet minister in Norman Kirk's government, first as Minister of Broadcasting (where he devised the idea of two state-owned stations that could compete against each other). Douglas was later made Minister for Housing and Minister of Customs. While he was the most junior minister in the Cabinet, he was praised for the amount of hard work he put into his positions and no one denied that he had talent, however his economic ideas began shifting to the right and he alienated many of his colleagues with a radical alternative budget. Along with Douglas, who believed that the markets were being choked by National's paternalistic policies were the younger members of caucus. Specifically David Lange, Richard Prebble, David Caygill, and Michael Bassett, who together became known as the Fish and Chip Brigade that had attempted to seize control of the Labour Party first in 1980, and then successfully in 1983. Even though Douglas was the intellectual leader of the group, Lange, the witty, rotund, and charismatic former lawyer, was considered the best leader for the electorate and the only one who could match Muldoon rhetorically.
On the other side were the old school left wing thinkers represented by Douglas' relative, Jim Anderton, who was Labour Party President. The group around Anderton, which included Russell Marshall, Bill Rowling, Helen Clark, and Bob Tizard. The left wing faction, while agreeing with the right wing faction on social reform, broke entirely when it came to economic vision. The left faction wanted to retain the controlled economy that had been in place since the first Labour government. Anderton and Douglas, though relatives, bitterly disliked each other and the internal war between the sides brewed quietly for several years until it was to later burst out into the open. For now though, the Labour Party settled their differences with a middle of the road manifesto that didn't promise much of anything. Both sides later said that anything else would've left them uncomfortable.
Lange proved to be Labour's best weapon. Although he once weighed near 400lbs, surgery to staple his stomach had slimmed him down, he had a fresh new haircut (different from his flat slicked hair from a few years prior), and a new pair of more in style glasses. Also gone were his rumpled and ill-fitted suits. Lange was now tailored in well cut suits that made him appear in one person's words "Grand, rather than fat". Lange's new look was in direct contrast to Muldoon, who wore ill-fitting suits and rather than button his jacket in public or wear a vest as Lange did to hide even more of his paunch, Muldoon left his jackets open and wore only an ill-fitting shirt which accentuated his own paunchy gut. The contrast was even more apparent on television in the leader's debates. Lange made Muldoon look foolish and out of touch. Muldoon again was heard slurring at Lange, who at one point told the Prime Minister that if he would contain himself, Lange would be glad to have a real debate with him.
Muldoon and National's campaign was further injured by the presence of Bob Jones' New Zealand Party, who criticized the government from a libertarian-conservative perspective. While the New Zealand Party did not win any seats, they did win 12% of the vote and probably cost National in a few seats.