1981 The Pope is dead! What happens next?

Lets say that in 13 May 1981 Mehmet Ali Agca manages to kill the Pope and he is arrested for that as per OTL... What happens next? A diplomatic incident between Turkey and Italy?
Also who would have succeeded him? There would be a Benelli-Siri duel again as in the 1978 conclave?
 
Lets say that in 13 May 1981 Mehmet Ali Agca manages to kill the Pope and he is arrested for that as per OTL... What happens next? A diplomatic incident between Turkey and Italy?
Also who would have succeeded him? There would be a Benelli-Siri duel again as in the 1978 conclave?

Benelli likely becomes Pope in 1981 and names himself Pope John Paul III. Siri has no chance at the Papacy due in part to John Paul II's installation of 15 new cardinals, none of which are likely to swing his way.

Assuming that Benelli retains a similar death date, the result is that you have three Popes dying under mysterious circumstances in a row. Conspiracy theorists would flip out, especially given the already shady Soviet-Agca connections being reported by the Italian press. Expect the Church to swing even more anti-communist than OTL. Not sure if Reagan would use this to his advantage.
 
Benelli likely becomes Pope in 1981 and names himself Pope John Paul III. Siri has no chance at the Papacy due in part to John Paul II's installation of 15 new cardinals, none of which are likely to swing his way.

Assuming that Benelli retains a similar death date, the result is that you have three Popes dying under mysterious circumstances in a row. Conspiracy theorists would flip out, especially given the already shady Soviet-Agca connections being reported by the Italian press. Expect the Church to swing even more anti-communist than OTL. Not sure if Reagan would use this to his advantage.

Sure he would. Or someone from his staff at least.
 
Sure he would. Or someone from his staff at least.

If he plays his cards right, Reagan might be able to secure the Catholic vote for his party for a while. American Catholics have always tended to vote more Democratic than Republican but this might sway the tide a bit.


After Pope John Paul III, the Church is going to want someone relatively young and conservative. The Church needs time to recover and none of the Cardinals are going to want to reconvene for another conclave. Maybe Ratzinger gets elected twenty years ahead of schedule?
 
Casaroli

The most likely successor would be Pope John Paul II's Secretary of State, Agostino Cardinal Casaroli. Where JP II was both a political and theological pope Casaroli would be mostly a political pope.
 

Tovarich

Banned
....Maybe Ratzinger gets elected twenty years ahead of schedule?

I'm going to go out on a limb here - because I'm even less of an expert here than I am on most subjects! - and suggest that's highly unlikely.

My reasoning is that tarring Ratzinger, however unfairly, with that 'Nazi' tag he got some of even in 2005 will have been so much easier in 1981.
This would have had especially felt in Poland, I feel, because at that time the hatred of all things German/Nazi still overode even the hatred felt towards all things Russian/Communist, and the Church would not want to risk losing the considerable public influence they had there.
 
Benelli likely becomes Pope in 1981 and names himself Pope John Paul III. Siri has no chance at the Papacy due in part to John Paul II's installation of 15 new cardinals, none of which are likely to swing his way.

I agree. I recommend an excellent book about all the conclaves of the XXth Century, "Passing The Keys", by Francis A. Burkle-Young. A lot of interesting stuff on the two 1978 conclaves.
 
Any chance that the Cardinals elect another "foreigner" as Pope? Or they revert to the old practice of electing Italians?
 
My reasoning is that tarring Ratzinger, however unfairly, with that 'Nazi' tag he got some of even in 2005 will have been so much easier in 1981.
This would have had especially felt in Poland...

I think you have a good observation. What about the Nigerian Cardinal Arinze who seems to mirror JPII (charismatic, theologically conservative but socially liberal, at least to a degree)? If he was a Cardinal in 1981, he would seem to be a safe bet to continue JPII's direction in the same manner.
 
I think you have a good observation. What about the Nigerian Cardinal Arinze who seems to mirror JPII (charismatic, theologically conservative but socially liberal, at least to a degree)? If he was a Cardinal in 1981, he would seem to be a safe bet to continue JPII's direction in the same manner.

Francis Arinze was elevated to cardinal in 1985.
 
If the Cardinals decide to elect a "foreigner" how possible it is that Cardinal J. Villot (most influential man in the Curia) gets elected?
Also what are the chances of Cardinals J. Ratzinger and B, Gantin?
 
Cardinal Sin !

There's a cardinal from the Philippines (which has a huge catholic population), who was quite influencial at the time Cardinal Sin http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaime_Sin.

It's just the huge Pun factor which would make him quite a funny pope.

From Cardinal Sin (no pun intended).

To Pope Sin :p
 
Things might get messy in Poland if the Soviet Union is considered a serious suspect in the assassination.
Yikes, maybe even growing to a Prague Spring type rebellion. Would the Polish military refuse to supress the protests?

What do the Soviets do? They need the lines of cimmunication between the USSR and East Germany.
 
Sorry to bump this, but I was hoping to run a possible Pope list by those in higher powers on the subject. Some butterflies have been retained, and happy to edit them out.

Albino Luciani / Pope John Paul I
Death: 28 September 1978 [OTL]

Jean-Marie Villot / Pope John Paul II?
Death: 1979 [bronchial pneumonia OTL, but different time]

Karol Józef Wojtyła / Pope John Paul III?
Death: 13 May 1981 [Grey Wolves strike]

Giovanni Benelli
Death: Sometime 1982 [same sudden heart attack as OTL, different timing]

Aloísio Lorscheider
[Libertarian, and despite health problems lived to 2007 OTL]


So, would this calamity of Popes be possible? If at all, how would the Church react to the Seat of Peter being apparently cursed.
 
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