1980s PODs, and a small challenge

I have a wee list here of 1980's PODs. The challenge is to come up with a short TL running to 2008 for any that take your fancy...

In no particular chronological order:

1. Carter puts together a larger expeditionary force to snatch the hostages in Iran, and it actually succeeds (well, only a _few_ of the hostages die in the rescue, and only a couple helicopters crash and burn in the desert).

2. Thanks to the UK selling off more of their fleet (which if IIRC was in the works OTL when the crisis broke out), Thatcher finds she doesn't have the necessary naval projection power to rescue the Falklands. This can go either of two ways: impotent fuming, or sending in what forces exist, and losing.

3. Reagan is assassinated, 1982. Hinkley's girfriend is still unimpressed.

4. Gorbachev fails to get the job. Pick your favorite alternate choice.

5. It's just another day on the job at Chernobyl.

5. Mario Cuomo, not Dukakis, is the 1988 democratic candidate.

6. Iranians beat the Iraqis. Probably don't occupy all of Iraq, since this would get them in a fight with the Turks, who are serious badasses.

7. Iraqis beat the Iranians. Probably don't occupy all Iran, because even Saddam would realize that lethal indigestion would follow.

8. Indira Ghandi avoids pissing off the Sikhs, lives to a ripe old age.

9. Chinese government clears out Tienamin sqaure before the protest becomes an international spectacle. Hoses and police are used, not tanks.

10. NAFTA negociations fall through.

11. Nelson Mandela dies in prison, mid-80's.

12. Margaret Thatcher assassinated by the IRA, 1986.

13. On his visit to to Kosovo in 1987, Slobodan Milosevic dies in an unfortunate accident while visiting a pig-fattening facility. (There was some dispute afterward as to where the pigs concerned should be sold for meat or not).

14. 1984 -alarmed by what they see as a headlong plunge into capitalism, hardliners in the party manage to remove Deng from power, and put the brakes on the pace of economic reform.

15. Able Archer ends up leading to an accidental nuclear war, 1983. Can the Brazilians make it as the world's leading power?

16. Iran-Contra remains secret.

17. Reagan fails to end the grain embargo on the USSR (1981 OTL)

18. John Paul II is assassinated, 1981.

19. After the Challenger disaster, NASA makes a more determined effort to develop a more reliable successor to the Shuttle.

20. Prince Charles and Diana Spencer fail to hit it off.

21. Anwar Sadat survives the assasination attempt (1981).

And just a couple of ASB ones:

22. Gorbachev is more successful at economic reform and political dickering than OTL, and in 2008 a rump Union of Russia, Belorus, the Ukraine, Kazakhistan, Armenia and Mongolia* still exists and enjoys the luxurious living standards of Hungary.

23. Pons and Fleischmann actual _do_ discover cold fusion in 1989. It has its limitations - given low power densities, it's not very useful for anything smaller than a major power plant. OTOH, it essentially runs on water.

* - facing total economic collapse, Mongolia joined up in the mid-90's in hope of subsidies and protection from the Chinese

add more, if you like.

Bruce
 
No.19

The doctrine of "smart war" develops as both sides in the Cold War take outwardly friendly steps of decreasing their nuclear arsenals while furiously adapting new nuclear platforms. The US winds up with aerospace bombers that use a trick of gravity to cross the world in record time, while the Soviets (being far behind technologically) go with comparatively low-tech but reliable ABM technology - developing better and better material-cannons capable of shooting missiles (and space fighters) out of the sky...or orbit!

To deal with the continued and highly visible leaps of US technology, in this timeline the Soviets became more technocratic - focused on using their resources and military more efficiently, which helps stem the capitalist influences growing in the nation.

In 2008 the US has unveiled it's new aerospace fighter while the USSR has unveiled it's new matter-cannon (which might lead to non-rocket developments in the neglected Soviet space-program...launching things into orbit via a rail-gun type system and leaving actual powered space travel to the Americans. Thus in ten, twenty, or thirty years you might have Soviet orbital colonies and a space elevator while the Americans have colonies on the moon and Mars).
 
That was interesting, but you do realize that Armenia has no common border with Russia, right?

Neither did East and West Pakistan, the US and Hawaii, the two halves of Prussia after 1815, or the average 20 or 30 separate bits of land ruled by many a ruler in the old HRE. Armenians generally were one of the better off minorities in the old USSR, and border on Turkey and Azerbaijan, with which they do not get along well at all. Also OTL Armenian independence was an economic disaster of the first order. I'm assuming that the Georgians aren't so pissy that they don't allow Russian and Armenian trade, etc. passing through: and after all, it's not necessarily the case that Armenia has been part of the union for the _entire_ 1985-2008 period....

Bruce
 
A few more:

24 - Big Hair bands fail to catch on.

25 - The Israelis avoid a lengthy stay in Lebanon (1982)

26 - the union of Senegambia proves a success, and by 2008 several other West African countries have joined into a federation.

27 - The USSR's man in Poland is not Jaruzelski, and he is less successful at suppressing Solidarity and it's supporters than OTL, and the government shows alarming signs of collapse. Does the USSR hold its nose, grimace, and jump into the icy waters of military intervention? Or does it back off, leading to a "Finlandized" Poland and an earlier (but slower, more drawn-out, and messier) collapse of Soviet rule in Eastern Europe?

28 - George Lucas come out with the first prequel in 1986.


29 - the gunman hits Yoko Ono, not Lennon.

Bruce
 
Neither did East and West Pakistan, the US and Hawaii, the two halves of Prussia after 1815, or the average 20 or 30 separate bits of land ruled by many a ruler in the old HRE. Armenians generally were one of the better off minorities in the old USSR, and border on Turkey and Azerbaijan, with which they do not get along well at all. Also OTL Armenian independence was an economic disaster of the first order. I'm assuming that the Georgians aren't so pissy that they don't allow Russian and Armenian trade, etc. passing through: and after all, it's not necessarily the case that Armenia has been part of the union for the _entire_ 1985-2008 period....

Bruce

A common border is unnecessary if there is coastline. Prussia got around its obstacle through agreements with northern German states. Regimes in Georgia and Azerbaijan hostile to Moscow would not make such agreements with their ex-oppressors.
 
A common border is unnecessary if there is coastline. Prussia got around its obstacle through agreements with northern German states. Regimes in Georgia and Azerbaijan hostile to Moscow would not make such agreements with their ex-oppressors.

I see you live up to your nickname. :D

I _said_ Georgia, not Azerbaijan. And why should Georgia be so idiotically defiant to a vastly larger and stronger country which has not been playing stupid games of the sort Putin's Russia has been OTL? That sort of shit leads to wars. (See, recent events).

Now, if you could provide some citations to Georgia's vicious hostility towards Armenia and Russia right from the 1991 start, I'll agree you have a point.

Anyhoo, does anyone besides Superwhatsit actually want to contribute anything on-topic to this thread, or should I just ask Ian to delete it, to make room for the 10,000th thread explaining How The Nazis Could Have Won?

Bruce
 
I see you live up to your nickname. :D

I _said_ Georgia, not Azerbaijan. And why should Georgia be so idiotically defiant to a vastly larger and stronger country which has not been playing stupid games of the sort Putin's Russia has been OTL? That sort of shit leads to wars. (See, recent events).

Now, if you could provide some citations to Georgia's vicious hostility towards Armenia and Russia right from the 1991 start, I'll agree you have a point.

Anyhoo, does anyone besides Superwhatsit actually want to contribute anything on-topic to this thread, or should I just ask Ian to delete it, to make room for the 10,000th thread explaining How The Nazis Could Have Won?

Bruce

Was there not a war in 2008 that clearly demonstrated a willingness in Georgia to do exactly the opposite of that which would please Moscow?:confused:

By the way, your scenario did not mention Azerbaijan. If the Azeris stay in the USSR, then there is no real issue, but if the Azeris are out, the Armenia is an isolated piece of the USSR. If one is the Soviets in such circumstances, then, is it not better to merely have a puppet Armenia, rather than one which remains an integral part of the USSR despite the independence of all of its neighbors?
 
23. Pons and Fleischmann actual _do_ discover cold fusion in 1989. It has its limitations - given low power densities, it's not very useful for anything smaller than a major power plant. OTOH, it essentially runs on water.

How great are the start up costs?
 
Was there not a war in 2008 that clearly demonstrated a willingness in Georgia to do exactly the opposite of that which would please Moscow?:confused:

By the way, your scenario did not mention Azerbaijan. If the Azeris stay in the USSR, then there is no real issue, but if the Azeris are out, the Armenia is an isolated piece of the USSR. If one is the Soviets in such circumstances, then, is it not better to merely have a puppet Armenia, rather than one which remains an integral part of the USSR despite the independence of all of its neighbors?

Georgia OTL has been enjoying frequent Russian meddling, support for separatist movements, "oil diplomacy", etc. for quite a while. And they got a quite unwarrented notion that they would get some US support, and it was _still_ recognized pretty much universally as a dumb idea. My scenario postulates a rather stronger post-transition state (quite possibly no longer called the USSR, although I doubt it's the "Commonwealth of Independent States" either: that name always struck me as preemptive surrender) which feels rather less need to play such dick-swinging games with the parts of the Near Abroad it no longer holds.

And it's also a fairly federal sort of place: the Armenians are in to a substantial degree because they see advantages in staying in, and the Union government feels it would be a rather bad international-image thing to say "no, you gotta go. We're too scared of what the Georgians might do." But if it will end this rather tedious argument, just assume Azerbaijan is still a part of the USSR, or Armenia isn't, whatever you prefer. As I said, It's sorta ASB anyway: the USSR surviving to 2008 in even a rump form has always struck me as unlikely with post-1985 PODs.

Bruce
 
23. Pons and Fleischmann actual _do_ discover cold fusion in 1989. It has its limitations - given low power densities, it's not very useful for anything smaller than a major power plant. OTOH, it essentially runs on water.
Wouldn't that require, um... somewhat different fundamental physical laws?

I mean, all the other ones you list are political changes... they could work. :)
 
11 Gathza Buthelzi, takes charge leads south africa to majority rule, appoints Benjamin Skosana, my buddy, Minister of defense.
 
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