1980: Zambia gets the Bomb

Thande

Donor
Zambia will overnight become the leader of any Pan-African movements, since they have nukes.

Which means that Gaddafi will redouble his efforts to get them for Libya due to his wanting to commandeer the Pan-African movement.

Kenneth Kaunda of Zambia was one of the top respected elder statesman of African independence leaders even in OTL though, it's worth remembering.
 
It takes bucket loads of money and industry to make a bomb. South Africa had a MUCH larger economy and population and industry, and still needed Israel's help.

A small, poor, landlocked country like Zambia?

ASB, I'm afraid.
 
I'm not so sure about that. After all, plenty of small nations like Switzerland, Sweden, Israel, Algeria, Romania, and Taiwan had nuclear programs. And Israel in the 70's was a very poor country, hardly the economic "little-giant" that is today. A gun-type bomb might not be that far out of reach, engineering wise for Zambia.
 
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Tovarich

Banned
Just a thought, but what if there was another, non-African POD, and Mao pops his clogs back in the '50s?
Is there anyway China could start its 'scramble for Africa' early and just gift Zambia a lot of the technology needed?
 
Well, it'd be pretty interesting, but I'd have been a bit worried if some nutjob in Lusaka decided that it'd somehow be necessary to launch a pre-emptive strike on one of the neighboring countries{Most run by tin-pot dictators, with the exception of Rhodesia, run by a wanna-be tin-pot dictator calling himself Ian Smith.}
 
{Most run by tin-pot dictators, with the exception of Rhodesia, run by a wanna-be tin-pot dictator calling himself Ian Smith.}

Googling "Rhodesia anthrax", "Rhodesia cholera", "Rhodesia organophosphate" and "Rhodesia warfarin" will provide minutes of fascinating reading. (Warning: not for the squeamish.)

Interestingly, while various persons pointed out that Smith's government had almost certainly used biological and chemical warfare in the Bush War, Mugabe never bothered pushing the point and in fact was slightly annoyed when the facts came out during South Africa's Truth and Reconciliation hearings in the middle 1990s. (Of course, Mugabe had any number of skeletons in his own closet, and deeply disliked the whole idea of some bourgie committee trying to let in some sunshine.)

Also of note: in the early 1990s at least one researcher wrote a thoughtful, carefully researched article pointing out that the evidence for biological warfare was overwhelming. (Just for starters, nobody was able to explain a strain of anthrax that could somehow distinguish between black Rhodesians and their cows, who died in droves, and white Rhodesians and their cows, who escaped completely unscathed.) She was aggressively attacked and her work trashed because -- I am not making this up -- she had, twenty years earlier, protested the Vietnam War.

Point being, in 1980 Ian Smith was still considered at worst a very stubborn racist, as opposed to a guy guilty of massive war crimes and the use of WMDs.


Doug M.
 
I'm not so sure about that. After all, plenty of small nations like Switzerland, Sweden, Israel, Algeria, Romania, and Taiwan had nuclear programs. And Israel in the 70's was a vary poor country, hardly the economic "little-giant" that is today. A gun-type bomb might not be that far out of reach, engineering wise for Zambia.

This is my working assumption. I'd be happy to see it picked apart, but I'd prefer some more detail than "no way could a poor African country do that".

My underlying assumptions are easy access to uranium, either local or from Congo/Zaire; a steady stream of money, including lots of foreign exchange diverted from Zambia's export minerals; unswerving political commitment from Kaunda; and a little over twelve years' time to work on it. I think we would see a civilian reactor a little past the halfway point, but I'm flexible on that.


Doug M.
 
If this butterflies away Mugabe in Zimbabwe, so much the better.

It doesn't. (Why would it?) And Mugabe's response should be interesting. OTL he and Kaunda were close, but after independence he tended to look down on Kaunda a little. (Because Zambia's revolutionary struggle hadn't been bloody enough, you see.)


On the other hand, things will get very tense in Southern Africa. Since South Africa now has a nuclear-armed state in open opposition to its policies, it will be very nervous.

It will indeed. "See, we were right to get nukes all along!"



Zambia will be very aggressive in pressuring the South Africans as well, since they have a nuclear deterrent.

Note that I haven't said a thing about delivery systems.



Doug M.
 
This is my working assumption. I'd be happy to see it picked apart, but I'd prefer some more detail than "no way could a poor African country do that".

- No money,
- No scientists,
- No infrastructure,
- No vital and strategic industries, so import of all equipments,

and if news of an African country developing Bomb A reach Apartheid South Africa = preventives strikes and invasion, Namibia borders are not far, and south africans troops were already fighting in Angola...
 
Actually, Zambia had a burgeoning mineral industry (I think there was uranium involved, right?) and had pretty much the most infrastructure of any African nation besides Egypt, Rhodesia, and South Africa. So a lot. As for scientists, well, actually, they did have some physicists, I believe. And Mobuto can certainly lend them the technicians needed. And finally, while Zambia didn't have the greatest supplies of hard, cold cash, that mineral industry does count for something,
 
Actually, Zambia had a burgeoning mineral industry (I think there was uranium involved, right?) and had pretty much the most infrastructure of any African nation besides Egypt, Rhodesia, and South Africa. So a lot. As for scientists, well, actually, they did have some physicists, I believe. And Mobuto can certainly lend them the technicians needed. And finally, while Zambia didn't have the greatest supplies of hard, cold cash, that mineral industry does count for something,

Infrastructure means also : schools and universities to form technicians, engineers and scientists...

Mineral industry means they have mines and they extracted minerals, not that they cant' transform it...

In basic economy, as I learn it, mines are not industry, they are in the primary sector as agriculture, fishing and wood...

France was a leader in atomic and nuclear research before WWII, after WWII, it need still 15 years to develop a A-bomb without american or british help...

South Africa and Israel need also a lot of time to develop it common A-bomb... Probably 20 years, because israelian A-Bomb was develop between 1967 and 1973...

North Korea develop an A-Bomb in the 2000's after starving their own population and sacrificing 2 millions citizens in 1990's famine...

So sorry, Zambia developping an A-Bomb is ASB...

And if apartheid South Africa or South Rodhesia discovered this pre-1980, they will have no problems to invade and destroy everything...
 
I do wish people would read upthread, so that stuff doesn't have to be repeated.

-- Zambia was an export powerhouse during this period, and one of the few African nations to run a consistently positive balance of trade.

-- Zambia's mining industry was not limited to extraction, but included refining and processing; they were exporting refined copper and copper sheets, cable and wire, for instance, not copper ore.

-- While Zambia had almost no physicists or advanced scientists in 1968, they did have a surprisingly robust base of engineers and basic technicians. No Feynmans, but lots of guys who were very comfortable with metal-bashing and making things explode in a controlled manner.

(I've just read the memoirs of a white colonist who was a fireman in Lusaka in the 1950s and '60s. He describes road construction techniques: Lusaka is on hard limestone, so instead of using bulldozers, they just dynamited road cuts using excess dynamite from the mines. Had to clear the neighborhood for safety, but they got really good at it.)

-- By 1970, there were nuclear reactors in Congo, the Philippines, Egypt and India. None of these countries had a large scientific or technical class at independence; all of them acquired them fairly quickly thereafter.

OTL Zambia had less than 500 university graduates at independence. However, by the early 1970s they'd increased that number to around 10,000. OTL they were spread across a wide range of topics, from agronomy to history. But it's not hard to imagine a top-down push towards more engineers and scientists.

-- OTL, before Kaunda's misguided policies caused them to lose all motivation, Zambians were seen as some of the hardest working and most technically savvy black Africans. Three examples.

1) Most of the workforce that built the Kariba Dam -- at the time one of the world's largest and most sophisticated -- was Zambian.

2) After Rhodesia cut off Zambia's only rail line, Zambian workers and engineers (with Chinese assistance) built the Tazara rail line through Tanzania. This line went across some of Africa's most rugged and difficult terrain, and included what was then the longest rail tunnel on the continent.

3) The Luongwa Bridge was, when built in the 1930s, the longest suspension bridge between the Zambezi and the Mediterranean. After the Portuguese blew it up in 1968, Zambia rebuilt it -- bigger and better than before -- in less than eight months.

I don't want to overstate. Zambia was an is a poor country. But they had an unusually strong engineering tradition and -- for a young African country -- an impressive string of large completed projects.

-- Despite the treaty, active policing of nonproliferation barely existed before the early 1970s; the universal assumption was that only major powers could make a bomb. The Israeli and South African bombs shattered that illusion, and NNP policing got a lot tougher after 1973. However, there was a window when it was astonishingly easy to acquire information and dual-use technology.


Doug M.
 

Thande

Donor
It doesn't. (Why would it?)

Reading about the Rhodesia conflict, I tend to think it would, though it depends on when the POD for this TL is (I assume we're going earlier than just 1980 itself). Mugabe's path to become leader of Zimbabwe seems reliant on numerous events that could have been avoided, such as the death of Herbert Chitepo in 1975, Joshua Nkomo making a gaffe in a radio interview in September 1978 that destroyed his credibility, and the slightly suspicious death of Josiah Tongogara in a car crash at the end of 1979 in Mozambique.

Also thanks for the info about the Smith regime's biological warfare, quite interesting.
 
It doesn't. (Why would it?) And Mugabe's response should be interesting. OTL he and Kaunda were close, but after independence he tended to look down on Kaunda a little. (Because Zambia's revolutionary struggle hadn't been bloody enough, you see.)

Note that I haven't said a thing about delivery systems.

Well, if Zambia gets nukes before 1980, South Africa will be very nervous, as you said. I think that would make them a lot more interested in keeping white rule in Rhodesia going. The last thing they want is the possibility of Zambia deciding to smuggle nukes into Capetown and Pretoria via a black-controlled Rhodesia. Keeping Rhodesia on-side becomes a lot more vital now. I think a white leadership willing to stay on top at all costs, with foreign support, butterflies away Mugabe.


About delivery systems, I have no idea. I think the Zambians would be willing to pay for a few fighter-bombers if they've already spent so much money on nukes, but I have no idea.

Smuggle them across the border, maybe?
 
I'm not so sure about that. After all, plenty of small nations like Switzerland, Sweden, Israel, Algeria, Romania, and Taiwan had nuclear programs. And Israel in the 70's was a very poor country, hardly the economic "little-giant" that is today. A gun-type bomb might not be that far out of reach, engineering wise for Zambia.
Look at this:

http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds...ia#met=ny_gnp_mktp_pp_cd&idim=country:ZMB:ISR

In 1980, the earliest that graph shows, Israel's GNP is ~30G$ and Zambia's is ~4G$

Zambia may have lots of wonderful mining engineers, but it doesn't have world class universities, or money or ...


Zambia is also land-locked, so shipping stuff in clandestinely means it has to go through another country - which makes it a lot tougher.

Note that India and Pakistan took a long time to get their bombs, and they are much larger countries.
 
Artillery seems like a possible delivery mechanism.

Alternatively, if the bomb were light enough, it might have been possible to carry it on the MiG-21s or MB-326KBs in service with Zambia, or perhaps acquire some Canberras. Worst-case, drop it out the back of an An-26 from as high a height as possible, set it for ground or low-altitude burst, and ensure that you can fly away fast enough.

If Zambia gets a nuke before 1980, other nuclear weapons programs (e.g., Brazil, Argentina, Iraq, Libya, maybe Iran) may be accelerated; on the other hand, non-proliferation efforts would increase significantly.
 
Zambia is also land-locked, so shipping stuff in clandestinely means it has to go through another country - which makes it a lot tougher.

Tanzania was not only friendly but allied, although they didn't have a direct rail connection until 1976. The Congo -- Mobutu's Zaire -- was also friendly, although the rail link there started falling apart in the early 1970s.

Note that India and Pakistan took a long time to get their bombs, and they are much larger countries.

Actually, India could have got its first bomb in well under a decade from achieving criticality. They delayed until 1974 for political reasons.
"Can you develop an atomic bomb?" Bhabha assured him that he could and in reply to Nehru's next question about time, he estimated that he would need about a year to do it. ... [Nehru] concluded by saying to Bhabha "Well, don't do it until I tell you to... A few weeks later, on 2 February, Bhabha was asked how long this would take and he responded "about two years I suppose".​
That was in 1962, just two years after their first reactor went critical. However, the death of Nehru put atomic weapons development on hold for the next five years; PM Shastri (1962-66) was a Gandhian who hated the whole idea, and then Indira Gandhi took a couple of years of persuading.

So, India didn't start trying to obtain a bomb until late 1967. From then until the first detonation was about six and a half years -- and that's including a year or more lost when their Phoenix plutonium plant developed a leak and shut down. If that hadn't happened, they could have detonated by late 1972 -- start to finish, five years or a bit less.

Also, because of the need for secrecy, India strictly limited the number of scientists and engineers allowed to work on Smiling Buddha. For much of the time there were fewer than 50 of them, and there were never more than 75. Of course thousands of workers and technicians worked on infrastructure, but nonetheless the core group was astonishingly tiny -- less than 1/10 the size of the equivalent group on Manhattan.



And then there's South Africa. They had a shoestring program exploring the possibility of a bomb from 1971, but we're talking enough staff to fit in one room and a budget measured in millions of dollars per year. Not until 1974 did the government decide to seriously pursue building a weapon. By 1977 -- just three years later -- they had a gun-type weapon chassis ready to go, but didn't yet have enough fissile material. They decided to test the chassis anyway, but then backed down in the face of fierce opposition from the Western powers.

If they had started enrichment in 1971 or '72 instead of '74, they could have gone from zero to having a test-ready bomb in 5 or 6 years.


So, 12+ years doesn't seem completely insane. As noted upthread, the major constraint would be keeping the thing secret.


Doug M.
 
I'm not sure how much it would have cost to develop a nuclear bomb, however it could not have possibly happened under the leadership of Kenneth Kaunda. He inherited a country that was overly dependent on a single commodity, copper and did little to diversify the economy. By 1978 the country was facing a debt crisis and would not recover until the 1990s.

Exports accounted for 54% of Zambia's GDP by 1970, this was the highest in the region. Zaire was in second place with 45% and Kenya third with 24%. Of these exports 93% were copper. The proportion of copper fluctuated between 92-97% of all export earnings up until the 1990s, meaning that Zambia was at the mercy of the world copper prices. Until the early 1970s Zaunda's government used the windfall from high copper prices to nationalise the copper industry and start companies such as Zambia Airways. However, in 1975 world copper prices fell by more than 40% whilst import prices were increasing at an average of 16% per annum.

With the mismanagement of the economy, Zambia's debt grew from $627 million in 1970 to $1.137 billion in 1975, $4,637 billion by 1985 and to over $7 billion by 1990. During that period debt grew from 36% of the GDP to over 300% by 1986. This meant that by 1986 it would take over 7 years of export earnings to finance the debt.

On top of this you have a landlocked country dependent on hostile neighbours to export its single largest export. While it's true that the Tanzam Railway was completed in 1975 by the Chinese to provide Zambia with an alternate route for its exports the railway was according to a report in 1985 "constructed cheaply with light rails, tight curves and steep gradients and has a low carrying capacity". During its first 8 years of operations 90% of the railway's locomotives had been cannibalised to keep the other 10% in running order. Dar es Salaam's port was unable to handle the volume of Zambia's bulky copper exports, so East London in South Africa became the primary port for Zambian exports by the mid-80s.

Finally I'm sure that Rhodesia and or South Africa would have launched a preemptive strike against Zambia had they even thought about acquiring nuclear capabilities. Lest we not forget that in 1978 the Rhodesian Air Force took command of Zambia's airspace to launch a raid on the country while the Zambian Air Force was unable to respond. Below is a link to the recording of the ATC from that incident.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z0ftw4bQq6g
 
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