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Here's the rough idea.

1976:
Ronald Reagan wins the Republican Primary but loses the General Election
Ron Paul, after having won a special election, proceeds to win reelection in the general
>>OTL Paul won the Special but lost the General a few months later, coming back to win in 1978.
1980:
Gerald Ford runs for President and is GOP nominee. He chooses Howard Baker as his running mate.
>>Baker, though Conservative, isn't conservative enough for many.
Ron Paul, now a 2.5-term Congressman, is disillusioned with the GOP and is the Libertarian nominee
>>Like OTL, David Koch runs as VP, granting the ticket access to the family's tremendous wealth
With Ford as GOP nominee, John Anderson opts not to run.

Carter proceeds to dominate much of the south and Ford loses some liberal states (MD, MA, and HI) because without Anderson more liberals vote for Carter despite more moderates voting for Ford TTL. I increase Carter's share of the popular vote due to Anderson voters and the South though he's weaker outside the south here.

Paul gets the support of hardcore economic conservatives, pro-amnesty types, anti-war types, civil libertarians, and anti-draft folks (likely meaning a strong youth appeal). OTL Anderson got a lot of youth support due to his social liberalism and opposition to the draft.

Paul is likely endorsed by Eugene McCarthy here. OTL he supported Ed Clark before meeting with Reagan and being impressed by him personally. I think he'd stick with Paul here, giving the ticket a somewhat high-profile surrogate.

I gave Paul a couple of Faithless Electors. One from his state of Texas (where he got an electoral vote in 2016) and another from Alaska, where Ed Clark came in third ahead of Anderson in 1980 and there were a few elected Libertarian state legislators at the time. I imagine that Paul could potentially come second in the state ahead of Carter TTL (something like 44R-28L-26D).

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