1979 Sino-Soviet War

This site has only discussed a Sino-Soviet War that starts in 1969.

However, in 1979, another causes belli occured: China attacked Vietnam. The Soviets tried to deliver weapons but it proved too difficult. They ultimately decided to abandon Vietnam rather than start a conflict with China.

What if they decided to go to war with China at that point in time? Would the PRC have a better chance of winning than it would have in 1969?
 
Marginally ASB

By 1979, the Soviets would have lost one or two major European cities, as well as Vladivastok and Irkutsk (which is are the lynchpins of their operations in the Far East, and thus the only way that they hold it) no matter what they were able to do in China. This is in addition to the high probability that the US would become entangled in the affair, thus massively increasing the risk for the USSR. The PRC had made it abundantly clear after the Ussuri River follies 10 years earlier that they were not going to engage in any sort of limited war on their territory, and that they were more than willing to do what it would take to 'punish' any Soviet invasion of Chinese territory.

WIth this in mind, unless you want to postulate an insane (or deeply senile) Soviet leader, there is simply no (as in none/zero/zip/zilch/nada) chance of the Red Army crossing the Chinese border. The risk is far too high by this time, and the potential gains are limited at best. Vietnam was an ally, but not an important one in any event. The NVA was capable of giving the PLA a bloody nose (it did, as you might remember) that it didn't soon forget, without any Soviet involvement.
 
Rule 1 never attack any country armed with Nukes its insane and might just be fatal

79 is just way too late for the USSR to achieve a favorable outcome Vs the PRC. 69 is the better choice for a non glowing outcome
 
I happened to be on my first trip to China when this war began. We still had "minders" back then and the group I was with always had two or three LuXingShe folks keeping an eye on what we saw and the newspapers we had access to. I remember saying to another round-eye in our group when we were in Hangzhou a few days before the invasion that I thought something was up, because the civil airport there shared a runway with a PLAAF airfield of the "Military Region" (MR) that had primary responsibility for Taiwan. The first F-9 Fantans were just becoming visible and I was taking every opportunity to sneak a chance to photograph them. I was able to get pics of F-9s being repainted from their basically bare-metal finish to the southern MR jungle camo. I figured this marked a southward redeployment.

We didn't find out that I was right until we exited China to HK over the old rail bridge at Shenzhen. By then, the invasion was well under way.
 
China will get back territories lost Russia.


What drugs are you on? Short answer WWIII breaks out, many cities in China and in Far Eastern USSR go up in mushroom clouds. China ceases to exist as a country and the USSR's eastern reaches becomes a radioactive "No man's land.".
 
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