1978 UK Election Timeline

What if Callaghan hadn't "waited at the church", and instead called a General Election in the autumn of 1978?

Its a POD that's interested me for a long time, as it has doubtless interested others on this site. It has been discussed time and again on this forum (see links below), but to my knowledge has never generated a lengthy or completed timeline. A month and a half ago Meadow challenged me to take a crack at it, and that's what I've now decided to do.

But if its worth doing, it's worth doing well, and to that end I'm gathering forth as much background information as I can. I know the period well enough as general historical and political knowledge, and the next step is for me to fully flesh that out.

So AH.com (and especially PolitiBrits), what I'm looking for is recommendations. Recommendations for books, articles, documentaries; any useful sources on the time period (which for the purposes of a timeline I'm considering as being roughly 1974-1984). Listed below are those books already on my "reading list", said list will hopefully be widely expanded over the next few months. Meadow and Lord Roem I know have been breathing this stuff for Lavender, so I'm particularly interested in their suggestions.


Books I own and have read/plan to read for research purposes

Thatcher - The Downing Street Years
Healey - The Time Of My Life
Jones, Mervyn - Michael Foot
Morgan, Kenneth - Michael Foot [official biography]
Wilson - The Governance of Britain [pub. 1977]
Benn (via Mullin) - Arguments for Democracy
Davies, A.J. - To Build A New Jerusalem [Labour Party History]
Campbell, John - Roy Jenkins [1983 biography]
[I also have the memoirs of Major, Blair, and Mandelson; though these are all very light on '70s and '80s background, despite it being integral to their own respective rises].
[Plus there's a "Marxist History" of the Labour Party kicking around here somewhere, not mine though - as an Alt Historian I eschew Marxist historical determinism].


Books I intend to acquire for same research purposes

Hayter, Dianne (2005) - Fightback!: Labour's Traditional Right in the 1970s and 1980s [mostly available as a Google Book]
Heffernan, Richard. and Marqusee, Mike (1992) - Defeat from the Jaws of Victory: Inside Kinnock's Labour Party
Medhurst, John - That Option No Longer Exists: Britain 1974-76


As may be apparent, my unplanned accumulations to date have leaned towards biographies and memoirs (these being more easily acquired 2nd hand than "hard" historical works), and also towards the political left. Neither of these categories are inherently problematic so long as their partial reporting of events is kept in mind - and timelines with multiple opposing biased viewpoint accounts are IMO quite good fun. I'm keen though that this timeline should not be exclusively about the Labour Party - the Tories and Liberals deserve some love - so I need to flesh things out on that side of the political spectrum.

Also I have twice as much Michael Foot there as anyone else, but that isn't a problem for me :D


AH.com discussions about/relevant to this POD

A Thatcher Government in 1978 - May 2015
WI: Labour wins in 1979 election, Callaghan resigns, Foot or Benn becomes PM - Jan 2015
How to fix 1970s Britain - Jan 2015
No Lib-Lab Pact? - Nov 2014
Jim Callaghan and the election of 1978 - Nov 2014
AHC: Prime Minister Barbara Castle - Aug 2014
Callaghan goes to the polls in 1978? - July 2014
Callaghan doesn't wait at the church - July 2014
James Callaghan and the election of 1978 - June 2014
Wi Callaghan calls an election in 1978? - May 2014
Callaghan Calls an election in 1978 - Feb 2014
AHC WI No 1979 winter of discontent - July 2013
Election 1978 - Double Harness - March 2013 [timeline opening]
Callaghan's Choice - Nov 2012
WI: Callaghan in 1978? - Sept 2012
Waiting at the Church: Thatcher's Forward March Halted? - March 2012 [timeline opening]
Election '78. What If - Jan 2012 [timeline opening]


As to when I'll actually start on the timeline (provisionally and unimaginatively titled "Not Waiting At The Church"); it won't be until after I've finished "The Loud Blast That Tears The Skies", and probably after "Divided Kingdom" too. Also there's a TLIAD I've been itching to do for a few weeks now, that certain excellent phresh produce has jolted back to the front of my mind. In the mean time its reading and preparation only I'm afraid.

Thank you all in advance.
 
To capitalise on the wealth of knowledge already here and (hopefully) checking this thread, some early brainstorming:

- What would be the likely outcome of an October 1978 election? My feeling is a narrow result typical of the postwar period. Probably to Labour's favour, though a minority, but not definitely so.

- What would it actually take to induce Callaghan to go to the country when he OTL didn't? A favourable rogue poll? An opposition scandal or other bit of good luck that falls at a different time? Personally I'm keen to establish a POD that isn't a handwave of "he just does", 'cos I'm quite bad at that :)

- Who would win post-defeat leadership elections for each of the main parties, assuming that they would take place? Callaghan might likely stay on as in OTL (to 1980), though if he goes who replaces him? Healey iirc wasn't universally popular in the party after IMF-induced austerity (or indeed during the "his to lose" OTL leadership election of 1980, Foot wasn't a sure thing in standing even in 1980. Is it too late for Castle? Thatcher I assume would be out - replaced by Whitelaw (whose stock is falling and is less likely in '78 than in '75) or Howe, other names being too junior or senior. Is there a "wet" option, say Pym?

- How would Labour's internal politics develop in the event of a '78 victory? - I imagine that the Right would be strengthened relative to OTL 1979-1983 (both directly through victory, and when one looks at those MPs who lost close seats in OTL 1979, predominantly from the right of the party). Also how far would various CLP selections have proceeded by this point - perhaps there's less chance for the Left to win safe seats, while MPs planning to retire in '79 might be pre-empted (off the top of my head, Colin Phipps, later of the SDP for one).

- Whither the Liberals? Because heaven knows between Quiet Deaths and Loud Blasts I owe them a break.

- For that matter, what of any SDP-style shenanigans? Dick Taverne has already stood and won as an "Independent Democratic Labour" candidate in Lincoln in 1973, and the intellectual currents that led to the Limehouse Declaration were in full flow by this point in OTL.

- Foreign policy and international implications: I'm planning a predominantly British timeline, over a short-ish period, but I am still interested in wider butterflies. Big ones I suppose would be a) Anglo-American relations, and (potentially) Reaganomics without Thatcherism (or with earlier smaller mandate, more controversial Thatcherism), b) the development of the EEC, c) the fate of the Argentine junta, and d) the Mitterand government and social democracy in the 1980s, perhaps with a more ideologically aligned government in Britain enabling greater success.
 
I doubt that a Labour Government would announce the scrapping of the Endeavour without a replacement thus giving the Junta the impression that we weren't that bothered about the Falklands.(Especially if the "good" Doctor was still Foreign Secretary).
 
A useful book might be British Politcal Facts by David Butler and Gareth Butler, which has a huge variety of info, particularly for names and alot of useful granular level detail, useful for getting research started off.
 
I doubt that a Labour Government would announce the scrapping of the Endeavour without a replacement thus giving the Junta the impression that we weren't that bothered about the Falklands.(Especially if the "good" Doctor was still Foreign Secretary).

This chimes with what I understand as being the AH consensus on the Falklands - that the war wouldn't happen under a Labour government, and as such there'd be no electoral benefit/malus to its resolution. I'm interested in doing a bit more digging however, to see if there's more to it than this.

I would suggest "The Path to Power"; Mrs. T's pre-79 memoirs.

Very good shout. Post-79 (DSY) will be useful to see what "unbutterflied" events a re-elected Labour government will come up against, but pre-79 would be handy for both 70s context and for a six month early Thatcher premiership. Adding to the list.

A useful book might be British Politcal Facts by David Butler and Gareth Butler, which has a huge variety of info, particularly for names and alot of useful granular level detail, useful for getting research started off.

That's a cracking tome, and as you say, probably a very useful starting point. Sadly way beyond my budget.

[EDIT] Or not. Just found an edition going for £2.60. :D
 
The Liberals would probably suffer in a general election due to the Thorp scandal, and the Lib Lab pact. It wouldn't be a complete wipe out but worse than 1979- so instead of going from 13 to 11 they go from 13 to 6 or 7. Though even if the Liberals lost I still think Steel would stay on as leader

A possible POD could be not hiring Saachi and Saachi as an ad agency,

For your consideration here is a draft with Mrs T's edits, of a conservative manifesto for a 1978 general election
 
Last edited:
Dominic Sandbrook's "Seasons in the Sun" covers British Political and Social history from 1974 to 1979.

Also "Boom-Britain in the 1980's" the first two chapters covers the events of 1978/79 very well by Graham Stewart.
 
Top