1976 US election WI: Carter doesn't do the Playboy interview

Inspired by the new 1976 campaign feature on the "American History USA Campaign Trail" game.

Like it says on the tin, what if Carter decided not to give an interview to Playboy magazine, out of fear of the possible repercussions? How much would it affect the race?

(On the Campaign Trail game, the Playboy interview is treated as a monumental cock-up, with Carter going from a 1972-style victory to having his lead drastically cut in virtually every state. However, by all indications Ford's good performance in the first televised debate in September also was a major factor in the race tightening as much as it did, only scuppered by Ford's gaffe in the second debate...)
 
Like most "gaffes" it probably had no effect whatever. As I keep on pointing out, huge post-convention leads in the polls almost inevitably erode, not due to bad campaigns but because those leads were illusory to begin with. https://www.alternatehistory.com/Discussion/showpost.php?p=10749600&postcount=5

if the Playboy interview really did hurt Carter, one would expect it to hurt him worst in the socially conservative South. Yet Carter carried ten of the eleven ex-Confederate states (only very narrowly losing Virginia), some of them by margins that look incredible today--65-35 in Arkansas! http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/u/usa/pres/1976.txt
 
I think Carter does better. I see him beating Ford 52% to 46% in the popular vote. Carter carries California, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, South Dakota, Virginia and Washington. So Carter gets an Electoral College landslide of 429 to 109. Psychologically Carter gets the boost of beginning declared the winner much earlier in the evening. OTL he was declared the winner at 3am, long after my Mom made me go to bed.
 
??? the Democrats keep more of the evangelical vote, including through the 1980s ???

And this potentially has huge ramifications.
 
??? the Democrats keep more of the evangelical vote, including through the 1980s ???

And this potentially has huge ramifications.
I doubt one interview had much lasting effect on the evangelical vote. As others have noted, Carter still carried the South handily in '76, and there were very real divides in the evangelical movement in 1980.
 
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