1976 scenarios

Nixon continues his campaign as per OTL, and on Nov. 5, 1968, the trends are clear. Richard Nixon/Spiro Agnew, 45%, 318 ECV
Hubert Humphrey/Buford Ellington, 43%, 191 ECV
George Wallace/Curtis Lemay- 12%, 29 ECV

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Agree, but how will my RFK/Reagan matchup turn out in 1980? In 1976 RFK will probably win, for Reagan is seen as too extreme and the GOP is damaged goods, as they were last year. 1980 is far more debatable. Depending on how RFK handles the economy, such as letting Volcker perform his OTL role, we can see a narrow victory for the Democrats. RFK's charisma matches Reagan's. I'd say, depending on how Iran goes and Lebanon, where Kennedy would not send Marines, Bush Senior succeeds him. The presidencies go the same as OTL, minus Reagan. If this causes the RFK branch of the family to overtake JFK's branch politically, the Dems will gallop, not walk towards Pelosi-wank. Forgetting for a moment the felonies, strange vaccine theories, etc. I can't imagine RFK Jr getting elected outside of Pelosi's district or a very liberal NY one :p.

Robert Kennedy (1977-85), George H.W. Bush (1985-93) Bill Clinton (1993-2001) John McCain (2001-09) George W. Bush (2009-)

Robert F. Kennedy/James E. Carter- 316 ECV, 54.4%
Ronald Reagan/ John Connally- 218 ECV, 45.3%

1976 election results.
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1. In OTL the margin of victory was a lot closer in 76, in fact if the election were held 2 or 3 weeks later Ford would have narrowly beaten Carter.

2. Something very fishy with this ATL: all the presidents in past 32 years have served two terms in office.:rolleyes:

3. Highly unlikly George Bush Sr would have been the GOP presidential candidate in 84 especially when there were more viable Republicans such as Senator Bob Dole, Dick Luger, Congressman Jack Kemp and James Baker. At this point Bush would have been an obscure bussinessman. Your timeline comes off as a bit unimagiantive.

4. I am far from convinced that the Watergate scandal could be butterflyed away. Like I said RFK could make an another presidential bid in 76 but under the circumstances he will likely lose out to Carter. But there's still another possibility; he obviously will not accept the VP spot and will go likely go along with Carter's choice of Senator Mondale, perhaps he makes a deal with Carter at the Convention to make him Secretary of State after he's elected president. Think about it Secretary of State Robert F. Kennedy 1977-1981? He steps down as Governor of New York and his Lieutennat Mario Cuomo becomes Governor six years earlier than in OTL. RFK would have a distinguished career as Secretary of State during the Cater Administration: Brokering peace between Egypt and Israel,Treaty with Panama. restoring full diplomatic ties with mainland China, handling the U,S. response to the Soviet invasion of Afganistan and finally, the biggest test of all, the Iranian Crisis. Just a thought.
 
I just flipped CA, which was within 2% in OTL. As we saw in the 1968 primary, RFK's 90+ turnout in urban areas clinched it. I will not have Carter as President in this TL. Watergate isn't butterflied, but since the smoking gun is *disposed of*, he won't resign. Or Carter can lose the gubernatorial primary in 1970, and he's a nobody. I modified the Presidents. Whoever's elected in '88 will lose because of the recession. 1) Irrelevant for this TL 2) I just fixed that 3) Fixed 4) See above.
 
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June 5, 1968- Sen. Robert Kennedy thanks his supporters at the Ambassador Hotel after a narrow victory over Gene McCarthy. He decides to exit through the crowd instead of the kitchen, going with instinct over convenience. On June 18th, he wins the New York primary 60-40 over McCarthy. Now it appears that he has momentum, and the media spins it as such. June 26, 1968- Gene McCarthy announces that: "I am ending my campaign for the Presidency, because our goal of not having Lyndon Johnson as the nominee has been successful. Therefore my delegates are hereby released from their commitment to me. They may vote for whomever they choose." Giving HHH the delegates negates the whole point of the campaign, and since he didn't merge with RFK earlier, why now? Now it's down to Kennedy and Humphrey...

Fast forward to August 26, 1968- 1st ballot- Humphrey 850, RFK 600, and McCarthy 150. That only accounts for about half the delegates.
2nd ballot- HHH 1500, RFK, 1200. Now we're near deadlock, since Daley is leaning towards HHH, but wants to consult the others.
3rd ballot- Daley announces: "I cannot endorse an act of betrayal." Therefore, the Illinois delegation votes for Hubert Humphrey. 1750 votes for HHH, and he is duly nominated. RFK declines the Veep slot, like Hillary, and instead asks for State in the event of a Democratic victory.

Meanwhile Richard Nixon is watching the proceedings in New York. He tells Finch that "they just lost it. Humphrey is a LBJ clone and obeys everything he says. If they nominated Bobby, we'd have to worry. Now we just attack the Administration. No debates either."

Nixon-Agnew is nominated at the RNC, and HHH chooses Gov. Ellington of Tennessee as his running mate. Preliminary polling, shows Nixon with a fifteen-point lead, and he and Wallace will split the South...

First of all, the necessary # of delegates for a Democratic candidate to achieve in 1968 primaries was 1312, So Humphrey would have more than achieved that necessary on the 2nd ballot when got 1500 votes. And secondly, Governor Buford Ellington of Tennessee was an LBJ man and would not have been acceptable to the RFK faction. Party unity was very crucial if the Democrats wanted to win in 68 and HHH couldn't afford to alienate or piss off the RFK partisans. Therefore the acceptable VP candidates would have been Senators Ed Muskie of Maine, Fred Harris of Oklahoma, Ralph Yarborough of Texas, Vance Hartke of Indiania, and Gov. Carl Sanders of Georgia. Most likely he would pick Muskie, as he did in OTL
 
Nixon continues his campaign as per OTL, and on Nov. 5, 1968, the trends are clear. Richard Nixon/Spiro Agnew, 45%, 318 ECV
Hubert Humphrey/Buford Ellington, 43%, 191 ECV
George Wallace/Curtis Lemay- 17%, 29 ECV

genusmap.php

A careful look at the math will tell that Wallace/LeMay would have gotten 12% not 17 :p
Looks like you're laying the ground for RFK 72?
 
Sorry about that :eek:. The TL is called RFK Renewed if you're interested. I'm starting fresh from June 4.
 
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