1976: Rockefeller v Carter v Buckley

Lynette Fromme tried to assassinate President Ford in September 1975. Had she succeeded, Vice President Rockefeller would become President.

Rocky had quite the ego and I think he'd run for President in 1976. Let's say that after a resignation and an assassination, the conservatives in the GOP opt not to primary Rockefeller. He then proceeds to not even give them an olive branch when he picks a running mate.

Buckley and Helms proceed to run an independent conservative campaign.

Carter picks Proxmire trying to soak in part of the divided conservative vote.

I think Rockefeller likely picks Ed Brooke as his running mate in order to bolster the liberals within the party.

Thoughts? I'd think Rockefeller would win New York and Massachusetts here, though Buckley might win New York via plurality. Carter has the southern advantage, but maybe Helms could carry North Carolina for the ticket.
 
Firstly, the country would be devastated after losing a war, experiencing such horrible riots and social strife, Watergate, and two Presidential assassinations all within twelve years. I know Rocky is popular on this forum (while Reagan is widely hated), but putting America through this POD just isn't worth it to make him President. A better way to make him President is Nixon appoints him VP in 1973 (this almost happened, Bush 41 was also considered) and Rocky becomes President on 8/9/1974.

Certainly Rockefeller would benefit from a rally-around-the-flag effect that not only makes him very popular, but he easily wins the GOP nomination and crushes Carter. Many on this forum have argued that Rocky would be primaried by Reagan, but as Barry Goldwater learned the hard way everyday people just would never want so many Presidents in so short a time. And they certainly are not going to replace a popular incumbent with a right wing extremist. Even if the neocons go third party, they're not likely to gather anything more than say 10% of the vote at most.

Oh, and Rocky would never pick Brooke as VP. They are both northeastern liberals and that will never do. Rocky was not above working with the conservatives either; as I've explained in one of my threads on 1976 Rockefeller and Reagan teamed up to try to deny Nixon the nomination in 1968 but their egos prevented the plan from working to completion and Tricky Dick got the nod. So I think Rockefeller picks Reagan in 1976 and they win handily.
 
(1) I doubt that Reagan--who in OTL primaried and almost defeated Ford as insufficently conservative--would resist the temptation to do so against Rockefeller, who was far more vulnerable in a Republican primary. (2) If Reagan did so refrain, some other conservatives would almost certainly challenge Rockefeller in the primaries. (3) Rockefeller, with the prospect of serious conservative primary opposition, is never going to choose Brooke as VP, (4) assuming that Rockefeller does win the nominatiion against weak or divided conservative primary opposition, there may indeed be a right-wing third party, but I doubt that either Buckley (you don't say which) will lead it. Rocjkefeller had for some time been courting conservatives, including the Buckleys; in 1970 he even used Henry Kissinger as an intermediary to try to persuade Bill Buckley to get the New York Conservative Party to endorse Rocky. Buckley was noncomittal about this "but--perhaps seeking to boost his brother's chances in the Senate race--declarred to Kissinger that 'I stand ready to help him [Rockefeller] in any way.'" https://books.google.com/books?id=ZlRpAgAAQBAJ&pg=PA313 Rockefeller in that race in effect helped James Buckley by giving his own appointee Charles Goodell only a tepid endorsement. In 1974, Senator Buckley voted to confirm Rocky as VP (only seven senators voted No) https://www.govtrack.us/congress/votes/93-1974/s1092 In 1976, endorsing Senator Buckley for reelection, Vice President Rockefeller called him "our own Jim Buckley...our candidate." https://www.nytimes.com/1976/09/17/...upstate-and-then-upstaged-by-rockefeller.html

Anyway, in a three way race between Rockefeller, Carter , and a conservative third-party candidate, Carter would win fairly easily, because he would just need the core Democratic vote to win, while the third pary (whether led by a Buckley or anyone else) wil take dar more votes from the Republicans. (Even Geoege Wallace, despite his Democratic background and blue-collar appeal, took more votes away from Nixon than from Humphrey in 1968 according to polls.)
 
I don't know if Buckley and Helms would get on that well. Helms, for one, was consistently a protectionist, which Buckley would have not been okay with. At the same time, Helms wasn't all that prominent in the 1970s and Buckley would have tried to get someone better to raise his profile. Stylistically, they didn't match up all that much either; while Buckley opposed busing, he wasn't really into populism on the issue.

A better choice would be a prominent conservative Democrat.
 
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