1974 Greco-Turkish war

[MUC]

What were their mission objectives? As i say i always heard as a child they were only after the majority Turkish areas and wanted a quick, relatively clean war where they seized the deep water port on the island and what was at hte time its biggest tourist areas. Did they stop because they were beaten back, because they were pressured to, or because they had what they came for? It matters. And what was their potential strength? Cyprus is not in the Aegean after all. It is 76 km from the turkish coast at the nearest point on google maps and nearly 400 miles fromt he nearest greek island.

There is no way Turkey can annex the entire island and subdue hundreds of thousands of Greek Cypriots. The international community would not have allowed that. That is simply too much.
There is nowhere for all those refugees to go. Even then annexation of half of the island was at the edge of what was achievable from the diplomatic point of view and only possible because there was a strong Turking element in the areas that were annexed. You can't simply erase the Cypriot Republic off the map, that's too much.

 

[MUC]

Plus, in an all out war, would the greek air lift be as successful with aerial interdiction from the turkish mainland, with the greeks needing to fly 5 times further?

Noone knows. Surely the Greeks would take casualties, but airlifting troops would be easier and faster than sending them by ship. By the time you get a convoy going, the war would be over.

 

[FairlyUninformedGraduate]

Thanks. That's pretty much in line with what I heard and put together, actually.

So is the below about right?

The Greeks were disorganized, under pressure not to intervene, and the Turks had already achieved everything they set out to and were themselves being pressured to put a stop to things. Had they advanced further it would have been to occupy an ungovernable mess anyway.

 

[FairlyUninformedGraduate]

There is no way Turkey can annex the entire island and subdue hundreds of thousands of Greek Cypriots. The international community would not have allowed that. That is simply too much.
There is nowhere for all those refugees to go. Even then annexation of half of the island was at the edge of what was achievable from the diplomatic point of view and only possible because there was a strong Turking element in the areas that were annexed. You can't simply erase the Cypriot Republic off the map, that's too much.

Very much in accordance with what I understood, thanks for the confirmation. It seems from the opinions here that the war was about as long as it could have been and the Turks achieved about as much as they viably could. I suspect the Greek mobilisation would have been way too slow, and horribly risky flying reinforcements so close to Turkey. So if OPs scenario of escalation occurred, it'd mean otl outcome with a few more downed fighter planes, even more political turmoil in Greece, and even more acrimony?

 

[ThecrownPrince]

Very much in accordance with what I understood, thanks for the confirmation. It seems from the opinions here that the war was about as long as it could have been and the Turks achieved about as much as they viably could. I suspect the Greek mobilisation would have been way too slow, and horribly risky flying reinforcements so close to Turkey. So if OPs scenario of escalation occurred, it'd mean otl outcome with a few more downed fighter planes, even more political turmoil in Greece, and even more acrimony?

Well if we use the scenario I put forward then the initial Turkish landing force is not only harassed by Greek submarines but also bombed by the Greek Air Force. It’s most likely that the Turks would not be able to achieve a beach head. It’s important to remember that the Turks did not achieve there goals tell the completion of operation Attila 2(weeks after the initial invasion). With the failure of Attila 1 the Turks would be extremely demoralized by the loss and as a domino effect the Greek high command would probably swing in the pro war direction. If anything the war will be way shorter than otl with Greece having the upper hand in negotiations. The negotiations mediated by the USA would probably result in no Greek annexation of Cyprus but a recognition of the pro enosis government.

 

[FairlyUninformedGraduate]

Well if we use the scenario I put forward then the initial Turkish landing force is not only harassed by Greek submarines but also bombed by the Greek Air Force. It’s most likely that the Turks would not be able to achieve a beach head. It’s important to remember that the Turks did not achieve there goals tell the completion of operation Attila 2(weeks after the initial invasion). With the failure of Attila 1 the Turks would be extremely demoralized by the loss and as a domino effect the Greek high command would probably swing in the pro war direction. If anything the war will be way shorter than otl with Greece having the upper hand in negotiations. The negotiations mediated by the USA would probably result in no Greek annexation of Cyprus but a recognition of the pro enosis government.

I think my uncertainty is wether the Greeks can mobilise a large army, gain air superiority in turkeys back garden (flying fighters to Cyprus isn't enough, you need more fuel and munitions and engineers and air defences) and inflict the killer naval blow before turkey, which is bigger, nearer, and more determined, beats them to it. Add in the us actively deterring the Greeks from attacking and it really seems the island is likely on its own even with a full Greek DOW?

Just summarising the thread really, I'm curious to know consensus.

 

[Guardonion]

We know the figures of Greek mobilization, does anyone have any sources on just what kind of a force Turkey could mobilize of they decided to mobilize?

 

[FairlyUninformedGraduate]

We know the figures of Greek mobilization, does anyone have any sources on just what kind of a force Turkey could mobilize of they decided to mobilize?

Agreed, that's one of the things I wondered about. I just have a hard time believing that if the Greeks had naval and aerial superiority and a large mobilised force and the approval of the global community they wouldn't have acted, so I suspect they had only some or none of the above.

 

[MUC]

Very much in accordance with what I understood, thanks for the confirmation. It seems from the opinions here that the war was about as long as it could have been and the Turks achieved about as much as they viably could. I suspect the Greek mobilisation would have been way too slow, and horribly risky flying reinforcements so close to Turkey. So if OPs scenario of escalation occurred, it'd mean otl outcome with a few more downed fighter planes, even more political turmoil in Greece, and even more acrimony?

Not entirely clear to me.
If the Greek junta leadership is able to make up its mind, ignore the Americans and order an all out attack on the invasion fleet / beachhead, while flying in supplies per aircraft, the invasion may actually fail. But that's a lot of Ifs.
Otherwise, yes. Limited clashes over the Aegean with downed fighters, perhaps a combat ship ot two get sunk and that's about it.

 

[ThecrownPrince]

I think my uncertainty is wether the Greeks can mobilise a large army, gain air superiority in turkeys back garden (flying fighters to Cyprus isn't enough, you need more fuel and munitions and engineers and air defences) and inflict the killer naval blow before turkey, which is bigger, nearer, and more determined, beats them to it. Add in the us actively deterring the Greeks from attacking and it really seems the island is likely on its own even with a full Greek DOW?

Just summarising the thread really, I'm curious to know consensus.

It’s not really about which can field the bigger army because the war wouldn’t last long enough for them to use them. In my opinion after the Turkish landing force is harassed by Greek submarines and bombed by Greek planes, once the landing force that did make it arrives on shore theyre met with Cypriots and pushed back in the sea. The USA seeing that two NATO allies are now fighting(unlike otl were the Greeks just supported Cyprus) would put there foot down and force both sides to the negotiation table. I see the war lasting maybe 2 days.

 

[Pesterfield]

Would Greek propaganda be able to influence the U.S. any, say playing off being the "Cradle of Western Civilization/Birthplace of Democracy"?

 

[FairlyUninformedGraduate]

Would Greek propaganda be able to influence the U.S. any, say playing off being the "Cradle of Western Civilization/Birthplace of Democracy"?

I rather think the Americans think that's them

 

[ThecrownPrince]

Would Greek propaganda be able to influence the U.S. any, say playing off being the "Cradle of Western Civilization/Birthplace of Democracy"?

No. Most people in the us didn’t really care what was happening and the people that did were Greek immigrants. The wider Greek community from what I could tell didnt like the junta.

 

[FairlyUninformedGraduate]

It’s not really about which can field the bigger army because the war wouldn’t last long enough for them to use them. In my opinion after the Turkish landing force is harassed by Greek submarines and bombed by Greek planes, once the landing force that did make it arrives on shore theyre met with Cypriots and pushed back in the sea. The USA seeing that two NATO allies are now fighting(unlike otl were the Greeks just supported Cyprus) would put there foot down and force both sides to the negotiation table. I see the war lasting maybe 2 days.

I just haven't heard anything to suggest the Greeks are a) able to dogfight over Cyprus and gain air superiority or b) that the Cypriots have a realistic shot of driving the Turks back into the sea. Even if the Greeks go against the us by engaging in the first place Crete is a lot further than turkey. Turn around time for missions would be hugely different. I'm not trying to argue for arguments sake, hope that's apparent, but I just think there's a whole lot of factors that need to swing hard in Cyprus' favour to survive long enough to either demoralise the Turks or get reinforcement.

 

[FairlyUninformedGraduate]

No. Most people in the us didn’t really care what was happening and the people that did were Greek immigrants. The wider Greek community from what I could tell didnt like the junta.

Plus it's irrelevant; Cyprus isn't the cradle of civilization birthplace of democracy to most people, Greece is, and Greece wasn't being invaded, ittl it declared war to help it annexe an independent island... Or so it might be spun.

 

[MUC]

I just haven't heard anything to suggest the Greeks are a) able to dogfight over Cyprus and gain air superiority or b) that the Cypriots have a realistic shot of driving the Turks back into the sea. Even if the Greeks go against the us by engaging in the first place Crete is a lot further than turkey. Turn around time for missions would be hugely different. I'm not trying to argue for arguments sake, hope that's apparent, but I just think there's a whole lot of factors that need to swing hard in Cyprus' favour to survive long enough to either demoralise the Turks or get reinforcement.

The Greeks would never achieve air superiority over Cyprus. That was never the goal.
Killing off the invasion fleet and dropping napalm on the beachhead however would shatter the Turkish invasion. That's all.

The point is quite simple. The US are going to step in and end the war, as soon as they find out that Turks and Greeks are fighting. And together with ending the war, they are going to end the invasion of Cyprus. If the Turks cannot establish a beachhead and break out of it in order to capture a chunk of the island, then they wont have a bargaining chip on the bargaining table.

 

[FairlyUninformedGraduate]

The Greeks would never achieve air superiority over Cyprus. That was never the goal.
Killing off the invasion fleet and dropping napalm on the beachhead however would shatter the Turkish invasion. That's all.

The point is quite simple. The US are going to step in and end the war, as soon as they find out that Turks and Greeks are fighting. And together with ending the war, they are going to end the invasion of Cyprus. If the Turks cannot establish a beachhead and break out of it in order to capture a chunk of the island, then they wont have a bargaining chip on the bargaining table.

I understand, but napalming thousands of troops and supplies isn't a cake walk 70 miles from Turkey and a few hundred from your own bases. You could raid and cause confusion but could the national guard and militia even take advantage of it? And who'd to say the us behave as we assume? In this scenario the Greeks have directly ignored the us explicit instructions not to get involved. How keen will they be to back them?

Even if the first attack is repelled what about the next when they're waiting, and angry?

Don't get me wrong, with my heritage I would prefer a scenario where Cyprus remains United and independent. I just feel it's not happening in this scenario either

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Who ever wins, America loses.

 

[Lascaris]

I just haven't heard anything to suggest the Greeks are a) able to dogfight over Cyprus and gain air superiority or b) that the Cypriots have a realistic shot of driving the Turks back into the sea. Even if the Greeks go against the us by engaging in the first place Crete is a lot further than turkey. Turn around time for missions would be hugely different. I'm not trying to argue for arguments sake, hope that's apparent, but I just think there's a whole lot of factors that need to swing hard in Cyprus' favour to survive long enough to either demoralise the Turks or get reinforcement.

The Greek operational plans certainly did NOT include establishing continuous air superiority over Cyprus, as opposed to hitting the beachhead and landing fleet. The intention was to kill any potential beachhead as it was getting established and inflict enough damage on the landing fleet that it would not be able to reinforce/do a second landing . In the event it failed to materialieze given the dithering of the high command. For the beachhead itself Georgitsis as the local Greek commander f... up by the numbers throwing away his strategic reserve instead of using it for the intended night attack against the beachhead as the operations plan called and which had a rather reasonable chance of success as the beachhead was contained and the Turkish navy had failed to land tanks to it. I covered the options in a bit more detail here I believe.

WI Decisive Greek Victory in 1974 Cyprus Crisis

Basically what it says. What would happen if the Greeks were able to decisively defeat the Turks in Cyprus during the 1974 Crisis? Would it have escalated? How might this have happened and what would the future path of Cyprus look like?

www.alternatehistory.com

As for Greek army mobilized strength CIA's national intelligence survey from March 1974 is publicly available here and makes for a pretty interesting read though a little behind as far as navy and air force strength go.

https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP01-00707R000200110030-0.pdf

Short version for the army:

Peacetime active strength 118,100
Wartime army strength 310,000
Wartime National guard strength 95,000

 

[MUC]

I understand, but napalming thousands of troops and supplies isn't a cake walk 70 miles from Turkey and a few hundred from your own bases. You could raid and cause confusion but could the national guard and militia even take advantage of it?

The national guard and militia did engage the beachhead in OTL, they were too weak to break thorugh though.

And who'd to say the us behave as we assume? In this scenario the Greeks have directly ignored the us explicit instructions not to get involved. How keen will they be to back them?

The US is not backing Greece. The US is merely making sure two NATO Allies don't move into an all out war against each other.

Even if the first attack is repelled what about the next when they're waiting, and angry?

There is no second attack. The US steps in at day 2 or 3 and ends it.