1972 Presidential Primaries With President Humphrey.

Gorrister

Gorrister

Inspired by a thread where Ford gets a second term,I decided to do something similar,but with HHH winning in 1968.
Here's just a basic start,who else should be added or taken away?

Republicans.
Ronald Reagen.
Nelson Rockefeller.
Spirio Agnew.
George Romney.
John Volpe.
Harold Stassen.
Paul Laxalt.
Jack Williams.
Jim Rhodes.
Howard Baker.
John Tower.
William Scranton.
Chuck Percy.
Wally Hickel.

Democrats
Hubert Humphrey.
George Wallace.

American Independant:
George Wallace.
Lester Maddox.
John Schmitz.
Thomas Anderson.
 
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Plumber

Plumber

No Goldwater. Probably no Lodge or McCloskey. Agnew is Reagan's greatest threat to win the nomination.

There is evidence the Nixon WH used George Wallace's tax liabilities against him to force him into the Democratic primary. Humphrey would have a vested interest in another independent Wallace run.
 
Gorrister

Gorrister

Plumber said:
Agnew is Reagan's greatest threat to win the nomination.

There is evidence the Nixon WH used George Wallace's tax liabilities against him to force him into the Democratic primary. Humphrey would have a vested interest in another independent Wallace run.
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I was just thinking if Wallace was going to do it in '64,maybe he was going to do it in '72?
 

Duke 4

Would Wallace switch over to the GOP? Most of the South switched over to the GOP 68-88. I would think Reagan would be HHH opponent in 72.
 
Gorrister

Gorrister

Duke 4 said:
Would Wallace switch over to the GOP? Most of the South switched over to the GOP 68-88. I would think Reagan would be HHH opponent in 72.
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Well Wallace might pull of a Thurmond,need some proof though that he could be a Republican.
 

Ariosto

George Wallace would almost certainly run on the American Independent ticket again, considering that he would have no hope of taking the nomination away from Hubert Humphrey; in OTL there was at least a small hope for him to succeed in the primaries, if not in the general. Schmitz might be his running mate, but his previous choice of Curtis LeMay could possibly put him off to the idea, wary of a candidate who he would perceive as a drag on the ticket. Someone similar, but without the gaffes or controversial statements.

Spiro Agnew would have an increased national profile, I'll admit that much, but I don't think he would have much of a chance of attaining the nomination given he would be fighting between Reagan and Rockefeller for his voting base. In essence he is a strong candidate that is squeezed out of the race but two heavy-weights. Reagan I think wins the nomination largely because Rockefeller, while a popular governor, is anathema to many Republicans by this point, and will have alienated many southern delegates. Taking a page from a previous TL by one known as Historico, I'll say he names John Volpe as his running-mate to placate the more liberal elements of the party.

Normally I would give the election narrowly to Reagan given Humphrey would not exactly be popular at this point, though not unpopular either mind you, but George Wallace is going to divert a lot of potential Reagan voters and cost Reagan states, especially in the vital Rust Belt. Humphrey could very well lose the popular vote but still win the electoral college, something that could have happened in '68 in this TL as well. I'm not sure if I would want to be President if I won two elections without winning the popular vote in either one.
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Gorrister

Gorrister

Nofix said:
After all these years I think it would finally be Rockefeller's chance.
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Like Ariosto said,it would probably come down to a fight between Reagen and Rockefeller,unless a candidate could come out and suprise(Romney,Agnew,Axalt,Volpe?)
 

Paul V McNutt

Banned
I see Reagan winning the nomination unless the OTL increase in the number of primaries does not happen. I see him losing the general election. The economy is good. We are out of the Vietnam War. There is detente with the Soviet Union and China. Humphrey does not have to play defense as much he has more time to go after Reagan's unpopular views. His opposition to Medicare is a big one.wwWallace may skip the Democratic primaries, avoid getting shot and split the Conservative vote.
 
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Nofix

HeilHimmler said:
Like Ariosto said,it would probably come down to a fight between Reagen and Rockefeller,unless a candidate could come out and suprise(Romney,Agnew,Axalt,Volpe?)
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Well the Republicans have had right (Nixon), far-right (Goldwater), middle-right (Nixon and his Law and Order shtick), and last time they elected a man was Eisenhower, who was practically centrist, they'll start to moderate. Remember, by 1972 they would have been out of power 32 out of 40 years. But with the shenanigans of Wallace the fiasco of 1968 could be considered a fluke.
 

Rich Rostrom

HeilHimmler said:
Inspired by a thread where Ford gets a second term,I decided to do something similar,but with HHH winning in 1968.
Here's just a basic start,who else should be added or taken away?
Click to expand...

These should be out.

Spiro Agnew - a lightweight on a losing ticket; maybe if he's re-elected in 1970
Hiram Fong - never interested; it's too early for an exotic
Everett Dirksen - died in 1969
John Ashbrook - only ran in OTL 1972 as an anti-Nixon protest candidate
Harold Stassen - irrelevant

Possible adds:

Howard Baker
Chuck Percy

A major factor is how the mid-term elections play out. Also, OTL Nixon continued enforcement of the Johnson-era civil rights laws in the South, he just didn't play it up. That allowed white Southerners whose conditioned-reflex loyalty to the Democrats was cracking to switch to Republican voting (though mainly at the Presidential level, and then the odd House and Senate seat; the switch at the state level didn't come for decades). However, with the Federal government in Republican hands, the national Democrats were not continually responsible for enforcement, somewhat defusing that conflict.

Humphrey as President would continue enforcement, and he neither could nor would low-profile it. He'd own it proudly. That would keep the conflict with the Dixiecrats boiling. Wallace was the natural leader of the Dixiecrats. The question is whether he takes the 1968 or 1964 path. Another question is what effect it has on the mid-terms. For instance, does G H W Bush win the Senate race in Texas?
 
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Gorrister

Gorrister

Rich Rostrom said:
These should be out.

Spiro Agnew - a lightweight on a losing ticket; maybe if he's re-elected in 1970
Hiram Fong - never interested; it's too early for an exotic
Everett Dirksen - died in 1969
John Ashbrook - only ran in OTL 1972 as an anti-Nixon protest candidate
Harold Stassen - irrelevant

Possible adds:

Howard Baker
Chuck Percy
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Well Harold Stassen probably would compete in '72,Humphrey or no.
 

John Fredrick Parker

Donor
I agree with those saying Reagan is the most likely to win the Republican nomination; I'd add, though, that TTL has seen Democrats holding the White House for 12 years as of then, and even if the US has drawn out of Vietnam, that doesn't mean the voters aren't going to have complaints (there's still inflation, white backlash, etc). I'd say the Gipper's likely to be the President associated with TTL's 1970's. (Man, I remember talking about that years back.)
 
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