The POD is the United States doesn't divide Indochina at Geneva in 1954, and free elections see a united Vietnam twenty-one years early. Back at home, US Presidential elections from 1956 to 1964 follow the same course and in 1968 LBJ is still President. Without the Vietnam War dividing the Democratic Party and destroying Johnson's popularity, how would the 1968 election play out? Would LBJ run for a second full term? Would Nixon be his opponent, or would the Republicans nominate someone else entirely?
1968 US Presidential Election Without the Vietnam War
- Thread starter Amadeus
- Start date
Without Vietnam LBJ gets to fulfill his dream of being a second FDR by focusing more on the Great Society throughout his ten-year tenure as President.
I doubt Nixon would lose California, his home state. Anyway, LBJ still wins.
Nixon isn't well remembered there, especially after his "last press conference".
It's also worth noting that Johnson would do much better in the South than Humphrey.
There is another issue to consider: the anti-war movement. The OTL counter-culture grew out of an inconsistency in history classes in the fifties between ex post facto laws and the Nuremburg trials after WWII. Americans were taught first that ex post facto laws were absolutely wrong. Then later in the text book, Nazi officers were convicted of violating laws that did not apply to them during the war. Or, put bluntly, a young lieutenant was obligated, when asked to work at a concentration camp, to say "this violates the Geneva convention. Take this job and shove it, mein Fuhrer."
So, the Cold War military staffs Europe and draftees are not sent off to war. Germany and Italy were nice places, after all, even if you did have to drill for a possible Soviet attack. The counter-culture will still evolve, with the Baby Boom responding to new music and Beatles haircuts, or dress code changes in general. In terms of drugs, I'm not sure, but there won't be anti-war protests at the 1968 Democratic convention. Another issue, JFK was lenient with the draft for men who had already started families. Would the trend continue in the absence of a war? Could we still have a peacetime draft today?
So, the Cold War military staffs Europe and draftees are not sent off to war. Germany and Italy were nice places, after all, even if you did have to drill for a possible Soviet attack. The counter-culture will still evolve, with the Baby Boom responding to new music and Beatles haircuts, or dress code changes in general. In terms of drugs, I'm not sure, but there won't be anti-war protests at the 1968 Democratic convention. Another issue, JFK was lenient with the draft for men who had already started families. Would the trend continue in the absence of a war? Could we still have a peacetime draft today?
Yeah, I wasn't originally going to flip it, but I went back and checked the returns, and margin was only 3.08% in OTL 1968, which really surprised me.
California only just barely went for Nixon in 1960 as well. Considering he couldn't get elected Governor in a race he was expected to win, I'm not at all surprised that California wasn't very enthusiastic for Dick Nixon in presidential elections.
Nixon was a foreign policy guru, so perhaps he wouldn't have bothered running again, or perhaps he wouldn't have been nominated if he had.
Someone like Jim Rhodes or Spiro Agnew could emerge as a compromise candidate between Rockefeller, Romney and Reagan. LBJ wins again. Wallace doesn't do as well (much of his OTL support was based, I suspect, on the sight of anti-war protests almost as much as it was on the racial issue).
Strong chance that LBJ doesn't last until January 1973, thereby putting Humphrey into the Oval Office.
Someone like Jim Rhodes or Spiro Agnew could emerge as a compromise candidate between Rockefeller, Romney and Reagan. LBJ wins again. Wallace doesn't do as well (much of his OTL support was based, I suspect, on the sight of anti-war protests almost as much as it was on the racial issue).
Strong chance that LBJ doesn't last until January 1973, thereby putting Humphrey into the Oval Office.
IMO, without Vietnam 1968 sees George Romney go up against LBJ, who wins but not by anywhere near as much as in 1964. Instead of Vietnam, the dominating issues would be crime, law and order, civil rights, and poverty. LBJ gets 338 electoral votes to Romney's 152 and Wallace's 48. Democrats maintain their majorities in both Houses of Congress.
"CULTURAL BACKLASH: Would the counterculture have produced a socially conservative backlash even without the flag burning and the rhetorical (and at times actual) violence of the antiwar movement? Perlstein's *Nixonland* suggests that the rising crime and cultural upheaval at Berkeley and other California campuses was a huge asset to Ronald Reagan's campaign for governor in 1966; and the first major disruptions at Berkeley, in late 1964, occurred *before* the Vietnam escalation, and had nothing to do with the war at all. It's reasonable to assume that long hair, drug use, open sexuality, and other signs of the cultural apocalypse would have led to a strong reaction from those embracing more traditional social values..."--Jeff Greenfield, *If Kennedy Lived.* (I have quite a few quarrels with that book, but I think it is plausible enough on this point.)
That's a real issue. LBJ died weeks after turning 65, and the stress of another term might have taken him sooner. So, Humphrey would be president but would he be the nominee if incumbent in mid 1972? He was only three years younger than Johnson. Another issue: age becomes an issue in future campaigns and Reagan is unlikely to get support unless it is in 1972, maybe 1976.
I doubt LBJ would die in his second term in this universe. Without the intense stress of the war, and the downward health spiral he entered after leaving office (he resumed heavy smoking and drinking over the protests of his family) Johnson is likely to live past 1973 and complete his second term.
Not likely. Without the war protests and anti-draft demonstrations, there is no flag-burning and the counterculture becomes an escapist movement of sorts. It would still be there but not as politically active. Now, the hippies would still be liberal on civil rights, voting rights, birth control, etc., but many of the key issues were already decided by 1968. Did they want to vote at 18? Yes, but without a war, it would not have been a protest issue. Without the "old enough to fight" argument, conservatives might have sold the stand that the young are sloppy, immature hippies.
RousseauX
Donor
LBJ really, really let himself go after 1968 and started the smoking habits he quit for more than a decade by that point
without a failed presidency and remaining popular he would have being a lot healthier and lived at least through his second term
I think the counterculture would still be socially divisive, but not near as much as OTL without the war. And instead of protesting the war, the counterculture would focus more on the environment, civil rights, and other issues that at the time enjoyed bipartisan attention. Instead of Nixon, today we'd be crediting LBJ for the EPA, the Philadelphia Plan, etc.
I am reviving my old thread.
I can see this as a likely outcome: without US ground troops Saigon falls by 1967. LBJ suffers a right-wing backlash which helps Nixon, but he remains popular enough to win a second term in 1968. Without the stress of Vietnam and the depression he suffered after being forced out of office, LBJ does not suffer the same decline in health which killed him in 1973. IOTL, after leaving office LBJ fell into a deep depression which led him to return to his old habit of chain smoking while he began to drink heavily. This resulted in his death at the age of 64. Without Vietnam, LBJ may live another 8-10 years and he serves out his second term.
After twelve years of Democratic rule, a recession in 1969, and right-wing backlash against busing, the Republicans would likely do well in the 1970 and 1972 elections. RFK is not likely assassinated if he is not running for President in 1968, so he and Humphrey would be the main contenders for the 1972 nomination. LBJ would likely strong-arm the convention into granting Humphrey the nomination, even if RFK wins the primaries. This splits the party and helps elect Ronald Reagan in 1972. Reagan has a rocky first term, but after presiding over an economic recovery and visiting China (under the advice of Secretary of State Richard Nixon) Reagan narrowly prevails over RFK. Four years later, RFK makes a comeback when he defeats Reagan's VP in 1980. Kennedy has a successful two term Presidency and lives into his 90s.
Overall, social liberalism is more successful without the Vietnam War and LBJ is remembered as a top 10 President. American society is less divided, while politics are less polarized in the late 20th Century. Reagan is not perceived as a demi-god who single-handily destroyed stagflation with his left hand and the Soviet Union with his right.
I can see this as a likely outcome: without US ground troops Saigon falls by 1967. LBJ suffers a right-wing backlash which helps Nixon, but he remains popular enough to win a second term in 1968. Without the stress of Vietnam and the depression he suffered after being forced out of office, LBJ does not suffer the same decline in health which killed him in 1973. IOTL, after leaving office LBJ fell into a deep depression which led him to return to his old habit of chain smoking while he began to drink heavily. This resulted in his death at the age of 64. Without Vietnam, LBJ may live another 8-10 years and he serves out his second term.
After twelve years of Democratic rule, a recession in 1969, and right-wing backlash against busing, the Republicans would likely do well in the 1970 and 1972 elections. RFK is not likely assassinated if he is not running for President in 1968, so he and Humphrey would be the main contenders for the 1972 nomination. LBJ would likely strong-arm the convention into granting Humphrey the nomination, even if RFK wins the primaries. This splits the party and helps elect Ronald Reagan in 1972. Reagan has a rocky first term, but after presiding over an economic recovery and visiting China (under the advice of Secretary of State Richard Nixon) Reagan narrowly prevails over RFK. Four years later, RFK makes a comeback when he defeats Reagan's VP in 1980. Kennedy has a successful two term Presidency and lives into his 90s.
Overall, social liberalism is more successful without the Vietnam War and LBJ is remembered as a top 10 President. American society is less divided, while politics are less polarized in the late 20th Century. Reagan is not perceived as a demi-god who single-handily destroyed stagflation with his left hand and the Soviet Union with his right.