1967: No preemptive strike

[Livius wannabe]

What happens if Israel leaves the initiative to Egyptians, Syrians et al?
Will they attack soon? Later? The next year? And how long is it going to last?

Of course I'm assuming alternative sources of oil, but let's handwave that.

 

[starman]

In 1967, Egypt, Syria and Jordan were deployed defensively. The Soviets had grave doubts about Egyptian prospects and urged Cairo not to start the fighting. It probably would've made little difference had Egypt and Syria struck first. The Pentagon was convinced Israel would win, "no matter what happened."

 

[Trashkan]

The political situation in Egypt was so high strung that anything other than war would see their leader replaced but the army was such a mess that it was almost impossible for them to win. If they had the element of Suprise then they might have stood a chance which was why Israel hitting first was a smart move militarily.

 

[Intosh]

What happens if Israel leaves the initiative to Egyptians, Syrians et al?
Will they attack soon? Later? The next year? And how long is it going to last?

Of course I'm assuming alternative sources of oil, but let's handwave that.

The military alliance between France and Israel will continue.

If Israel is in difficulties, the French will be made to take ammunitions from their own army depots to supply Tsahal and it will probably warmed french-israeli relations.

 

[Livius wannabe]

The military alliance between France and Israel will continue.

If Israel is in difficulties, the French will be made to take ammunitions from their own army depots to supply Tsahal and it will probably warmed french-israeli relations.

Can the French supply enough materiel, especially tanks?

 

[urielventis]

Can the French supply enough materiel, especially tanks?

At this time, France use AMX-13 and M47 mostly.
The AMX-30 start being built in 1966, 10 per month, so in 1967 Israel will not be able to obtain some.
France have about 800 M47 at this time. AMX-13 were also used by Tsahal at this time so they may receive some, not so warmly because after 1967 they phase out this tank due to it's vulnerability and weak gun (Amx-13-90 appear only in 1966).

What the french could have send very fast is aircraft. Mirage could have been painted very fast.

 

[Intosh]

Can the French supply enough materiel, especially tanks?

In a hot war situation, tanks or airplanes are not a priority in logistics or supplies. Ammunitions and spare parts are...

You need severals weeks to have a tank sent from France to be ready on the israeli front. You need to put the tank on a ship but when it is received, you need to "acclimate" it for desert use.

And when a tank or a plane is destroyed, the crew is probably dead or wounded. So any new tank is of no use because you need months go train a new crew, when I was draft in the french army, 7 months were the minimum to be operationnal for a tank crew.

During Kippour War, the US planes were directly used by Tsahal airforce after arriving in Israel. Most of the heavy equipment was deliver after the war and was use as replacements for destroyed equipment.

In ATL 1967, French help will limited by the number of large transport aircrafts available in the French airforce. In 1973, US airforce have plenty of C130 and some new C5 and when these planes fligh to Israel, they were protected by US aircraft carriers. Again, the french had only an available limited support.