1960s in a timeline without world wars.

TFSmith121

Banned
Actually, I disagree; liquid fuelled rockets were pioneered in the US:

I think that in this timeline the first satellite in orbit is German.
However depends when.
This thread is about the 1960s ATL,and maybe in this timeline the first satellite is send in orbit by 1970s or 1980s.
Another important matter is the atomic bomb.
Einstein is in Germany,Fermi in Italy,Oppenheimer in USA.
Without world wars some country would have the bomb within the 60s,or the atomic development would have been civil nuclear?

I could actually see the potential of Goddard's work being recognized earlier than it was historically in this sort of situation; likewise, much of the German lead in rocketry (historically) in the 1940s was a direct product of the Versailles Treaty's restructions on German aviation, which would not be present in this situation.

The possibilities of high altitude flight were well recognized in the 1930s; there's a reason the US was pioneering pressurized aircraft and pressure suits long before the WW II mobilization began, and the "proof of concept" for a hihght altitude research program was laid out pretty clearly by the Explorer flights in the 1930s. The US was also considering the needs of a transoceanic bombardment force in the 1930s; such a force would require reconnaissance.

I'd expect the US could very well be the first nation to loft an earth orbital satellite; Hale had the idea for the "Brick Moon" in the Nineteenth Century, after all.

Best,
 
To get a better time for Goddard, you have to have the people at the papers have at least a vague understanding of science.
 
Reading through this discussion I wound a curious assumption: that popular music all over the world will be shaped by changes in USA. Why? IIRC the US-culture wide infiltration into Europe happened in the wake of WW1. Without World Wars music scene in Europe will probably develop more indepenetly from US trends.
 
Reading through this discussion I wound a curious assumption: that popular music all over the world will be shaped by changes in USA. Why? IIRC the US-culture wide infiltration into Europe happened in the wake of WW1. Without World Wars music scene in Europe will probably develop more indepenetly from US trends.
Much of the development in popular music is related to recording technology. Consider who invented the phonograph and motion picture, and where. When tape recording exceeded the fidelity of the acoustic stylus circa 1954, recording took a great leap forward. It became possible to mix songs from different recording sessions on to a single LP. The "arf arf" in "Doggie in the Window" and the effect of singing chipmunks were impressive in the fifties because they could not have been done without tape.

We can introduce a big change if BASF markets recording tape internationally as soon as they invent it in the thirties. Germany, at least for a time, becomes an epicenter for recording. What happens in the upcoming decades is hard to say. Will Europe remain wrapped up in classical music to the point popular music moves more slowly?

Another point is that without the wars, the English language does not become as dominant worldwide. There won't be any US Air Force bases in Germany. When classic rock "broke out" in the sixties, it was sung in English by European bands who did not even speak the language.
 
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Another important matter is the atomic bomb.
Einstein is in Germany,Fermi in Italy,Oppenheimer in USA.
Without world wars some country would have the bomb within the 60s,or the atomic development would have been civil nuclear?

You can go two opposite directions. The new sixties can see an international effort to nuke out a sea level canal in central America and the world is in awe over the power of this new resource for construction.

On the other hand, the Bomb might remain a secret, classified weapon known only to the leaders of a handful of nations. A war that starts with nukes could be exceptionally destructive, especially if those who start the war don't know what they will be up against.
 
Last week I found a copy of Archduke Franz Ferdinand Lives! A World Without World War I in my public library. The author is Richard Ned Lebow, a history professor at the Department of War Studies in King's College, London.

Lebow's "good" alternative to World Wars I and II is a world with five dominant powers, none of which is dominant, and the link between peace prosperity deters countries going to war.

His "bad" alternative is a world in which a conservative Germany, dominated by the military and aristocracy, is the first to develop--and use--atomic weapons against western democracies.

Lebow gets into a variety of what-ifs, including how technology develops (more slowly, without defense spending), the arts (fewer Europeans come here, African Americans go to Europe to escape lingering Jim Crow segregation), the economy (without wars, the government plays a much smaller role), and culture (e.g., laws regulating sexual conduct stay on the books much longer). So basically, the Sixties either don't happen or happen a couple of decades later.

Much food for thought.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Actually, if there is a focus on "aviation" as the next frontier,

To get a better time for Goddard, you have to have the people at the papers have at least a vague understanding of science.

Actually, if there is a focus on "aviation" as the next frontier, that's not impossible. Think of how much attention went to Lindbergh, Post, Earhart, and the rest, in what were (essentially) civilian efforts.

Goddard had the backing (at various times) of the Smithsonian, Clark, Princeton, the Guggenheim Foundation, and - of course - the Ordnance and Signal corps. As early as WW I, after all, there were federally-funded and managed research efforts between the Army and Navy, and the universities and industry for what we would recognize as "Big Science/military" R&D programs; add NACA and the Weather Bureau in the 1920s, and something resembling a national "High Altitude Resarch Project" is certainly imaginable.

Presumably the Explorer project, and the various efforts at pressurized aircraft would be the start; add in Goddard's people, the WW I Army Ordnance effort that led to the bazooka, and similar activities that shut down after 1919 (historically) and I could see a program management nucleus coming together.

Equivalents that come to mind in Europe are the efforts that led to the CHL, for example.

Best,
 
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TFSmith121

Banned
Talk about the "knock-out blow"

You can go two opposite directions. The new sixties can see an international effort to nuke out a sea level canal in central America and the world is in awe over the power of this new resource for construction.

On the other hand, the Bomb might remain a secret, classified weapon known only to the leaders of a handful of nations. A war that starts with nukes could be exceptionally destructive, especially if those who start the war don't know what they will be up against.


Talk about the "knock-out blow"...this ties in with Douhet et al .

Best,
 
Actually, if there is a focus on "aviation" as the next frontier, that's not impossible. Think of how much attention went to Lindbergh, Post, Earhart, and the rest, in what were (essentially) civilian efforts.
Aeroplanes aren't rockets.

Goddard had the backing (at various times) of the Smithsonian, Clark, Princeton, the Guggenheim Foundation, and - of course - the Ordnance and Signal corps. As early as WW I, after all, there were federally-funded and managed research efforts between the Army and Navy, and the universities and industry for what we would recognize as "Big Science/military" R&D programs; add NACA and the Weather Bureau in the 1920s, and something resembling a national "High Altitude Resarch Project" is certainly imaginable.
40 miles up is balloon territory, not rocket territory. Basically, for Goddard to really make it, you have to want a big bankroller who wants to get into space.
 
I hate to burst the bubble, but...

Imperialism and nationalism make a major European conflict inevitable. Some great economic crisis is also inevitable due to the nature of laizze faire capitalism- the US economy pre-New Deal for instance was a constant cycle of boom and bust, e.g. the 1893 depression. No World War One and ensuing loans to Germany will remove one trigger/complication for the crisis, but so long as the underlying cause- top-heavy wealth distribution, overproduction and/or underproduction, both of which derive from the liberal capitalist ethos- remains unaddressed there will be sky-high booms and society-shattering busts of one form or another... just as we are going through today.


Communism or leftism will arise unless an FDR level visionary "reforms liberal capitalism to save it" which is probable, e.g Keynes. You could also see leftist revolutionaries and/or politicians/activists, Orwell, Einstein, Helen Keller, Mark Twain, etc. were all socialists, and the US had literal class warfare going on.
Japan is going to expand. Militant, industrialized, resource-poor, technologically advanced island surrounded by less-advanced European colonies... Japan's like a marriage between Prussia and the UK at the height of their imperialist ambitions. This will cause problems.
The UK is an island that tried to rule a continent. India will gain independence, by ballot or bullet. Russia and maybe even a nationalist/Marxist/Maoist China will seek to exploit the young new (and possibly wartorn) nation.

The A-H and Ottoman empires are going down in flames. Russia, UK, France, Germany, and Italy are all waiting to pick up the pieces where they can. Nationalist forces are used by and against empire and conqueror alike, and e.g. the Poles and the Greeks will rise in revolution. This will cause MAJOR conflicts; hell it DID cause conflicts, two of them to be precise. If it wasn't Sarajevo it would have been Warsaw, or Athens, or Budapest, or Prague, or Baghdad, or Palestine....


The long and the short of it is that some sort of world war and depression with either subsequent social revolution (Hitler, Lenin, Mussolini) or Keynesian "new wave" a la FDR are inevitable. The particular countries, characters, and death-tolls might change, but if the underlying socio-economic impulses are unchanged then IMO the deviations will be superficial.
 
Imperialism and nationalism make a major European conflict inevitable.

Don't be so sure that a European conflict is inevitable. There were countless occasions before the First World War and throughout the 19th century where imperialism and nationalism seemed to make war inevitable and yet the European powers worked things out between themselves and did not resort to war
 
I'd expect the US could very well be the first nation to loft an earth orbital satellite; Hale had the idea for the "Brick Moon" in the Nineteenth Century, after all.

Best,

From a private,or with a Federal program (maybe a Army or Navy project)?
 
Reading through this discussion I wound a curious assumption: that popular music all over the world will be shaped by changes in USA. Why? IIRC the US-culture wide infiltration into Europe happened in the wake of WW1. Without World Wars music scene in Europe will probably develop more indepenetly from US trends.

I think that Jazz is the most popular form of modern music in XX century also in this timeline.
Latin music (samba,mambo,cha cha) and latin contamined with jazz (a sort of Bossa Nova) can be very popular,more that in OTL.
I not see nothing type of new popular and fashionable music from Europe; maybe only Italian music (Neapolitan music for exemple) can have huge success.
I not see nothing of new in German.
Austria,maybe can modernize his valtzer,but nothing can beat jazz.
 
Last week I found a copy of Archduke Franz Ferdinand Lives! A World Without World War I in my public library. African Americans go to Europe to escape lingering Jim Crow segregation


"Satchmo and many Black jazz musicians leave for Europe".

Thiscan bea very interestingdevelopment!
Jazz becomes a new european form of music and is contaminated by European tradition.

Hey,i can see a sort of swingle singers and modern jazz quartet type of jazz here!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=crCxefHCLJA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-d-G3FrttKs
 
The long and the short of it is that some sort of world war and depression with either subsequent social revolution (Hitler, Lenin, Mussolini) or Keynesian "new wave" a la FDR are inevitable. The particular countries, characters, and death-tolls might change, but if the underlying socio-economic impulses are unchanged then IMO the deviations will be superficial.
Yes, some conflict is likely, such as a "kinder, gentler, shorter" version of WWI. But the point of this thread is a world without the wars.

Lebow gets into a variety of what-ifs, including how technology develops (more slowly, without defense spending), the arts (fewer Europeans come here, African Americans go to Europe to escape lingering Jim Crow segregation), the economy (without wars, the government plays a much smaller role), and culture (e.g., laws regulating sexual conduct stay on the books much longer). So basically, the Sixties either don't happen or happen a couple of decades later.

I think most agree that rocket science, atomic science and defense in general will lag behind without wars. I think we can assume popular culture, especially between 1920 and 1960, will be more Euro-centered and less Ameri-centered. Elements of European entertainment will have worldwide influence sooner.

I agree with professor Lebow that the abrupt counter-culture movement of the sixties is not likely to happen, but I’m not sure why laws over sexual conduct would remain conservative longer. The birth control pill was introduced just before 1960, a development that should not change. A time line without wars is likely to bring a more progressive world in the forties, with Autobahns, turnpikes, cars, televisions. Consider what a best-case Germany will build, fly or market.
 
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Then you have to change a lot. Possibly more than the aftermath of there beeing no world war will change.
Professor Richard Ned Lebow is a recognized historian and he published a book about a scenario without the two world wars.

In the meantime, here is my take on how the sudden events that changed American life in the sixties might emerge in an OTL without wars:

Space program: Later, as I think we can all agree.

Second generation (transistor) electronics: Sooner, as German technology is freely exchanged from the thirties on.

Third generation (microchip) electronics: Debatable. Does it happen sooner, as an encore to the transistor, or later, in the absence of a space race?

Resistance to military service: Does not happen. Without world wars, there is no permanent draft and the military remains an elective service.

Relaxation of dress codes: Debatable, especially if the clean-shaven crew cut soldier look does not become the male uniform. We could see a gradual progression if American society opens up in response to European trends.

Full-fidelity popular music: A little bit sooner, owing to growth in electronics. While Europe perfects the classical masterpieces, American contemporary forms (jazz, blues, folk, country) will mix into a new genre that catches on, as I explained in earlier posts.

Openness over sexuality: I know Professor Lebow thinks otherwise, but I would call this issue “on schedule” over the introduction of and the debate surrounding birth control.

Interstate highways: Eventually, America will copy the German Autobahns. It may not be a planned nationwide effort at first, but larger and wider traffic ways will be build for suburban growth. (A Germany without WWI will have a healthy economy in the twenties, so there will be growth in cars and highways, and yes, Autobahns without Hitler and plans for war.)

Civil rights and voting rights: This issue will be a powder keg. The movement was a direct result of suburban growth, passenger trains displaced by automobiles, and television. I would say a good ten years sooner, and the conflicts could be worse. The Fraternal Order of the Ku Klux Klan probably would not go bankrupt in 1944 without the Nazi stigma over Aryan supremacy. In this respect, the fifties might become the new sixties.

Computers: They were gigantic mainframe devices in the sixties. They were not particularly linked to military activity. They were the domains of governments, large corporations and universities at the time. We might see slightly faster growth out of improvements in electronics in general.

The generation gap and the counter-culture: It was the result of a basic conflict of values in the American education system; namely the inability for teachers to adequately reconcile a justification of the Nuremburg trials with American values against ex post facto laws. So, a 21-year old German officer can be held responsible for war crimes because he was supposed to recognize the prison camps violated the Geneva Convention and resign his commission. Refuse to follow orders from Hitler and walk away? Really? This issue, a corollary to the anti-Vietnam movement, never happens.
 

Space program: Later, as I think we can all agree.

I agree,especially manned space flight.

Second generation (transistor) electronics: Sooner, as German technology is freely exchanged from the thirties on.
Agree,i see transistor radios from late 40s-early 60s.

Third generation (microchip) electronics: Debatable. Does it happen sooner, as an encore to the transistor, or later, in the absence of a space race?
Probably not.
In OTL WW-II, Cold war and space race pushed the electronics in a way that is improbable with only civil research and development by private industries.


Resistance to military service: Does not happen. Without world wars, there is no permanent draft and the military remains an elective service.
Well,.France,Germany,Italy and others countries had draft also before WW-I,so is possible that remain in those nations,draft is

maintained (even with few months of service).

Relaxation of dress codes: Debatable, especially if the clean-shaven crew cut soldier look does not become the male uniform. We could see a gradual progression if American society opens up in response to European trends.
Clean shaved faces were the result of modern safe razors,and the American male had a clean shaved face from early XX century.
So,this not change (maybe i see that pencil mustache are not completely of fashion in 60s).
Fashion is probably classic,and without wars. i expect a little more of formalities (full evening dress are still commonly used for formal evening,and double breasted and three pieces suits are in fashion..bit no more of this.
For sure nothing prince albert frock,or spats or buisness tailcoats in 30s,40s or 60s).

Full-fidelity popular music: A little bit sooner, owing to growth in electronics. While Europe perfects the classical masterpieces, American contemporary forms (jazz, blues, folk, country) will mix into a new genre that catches on, as I explained in earlier posts.
Agree.

Openness over sexuality: I know Professor Lebow thinks otherwise, but I would call this issue “on schedule” over the introduction of and the debate surrounding birth control.
I think that probably in this timeline the 20s are not too much "roaring",but sexual mores evolve quickly from 30s,and is probable that pill came in late 40s.
However i not see any "baby boom" in 40s or 50s.


Interstate highways: Eventually, America will copy the German Autobahns. It may not be a planned nationwide effort at first, but larger and wider traffic ways will be build for suburban growth.
(A Germany without WWI will have a healthy economy in the twenties, so there will be growth in cars and highways, and yes, Autobahns without Hitler and plans for war.)
I not see large highways,but more developed railways,also in USA.
Without WW-II i can see also much more flying boats (but not airship,at least not in 60s)

Civil rights and voting rights: This issue will be a powder keg. The movement was a direct result of suburban growth, passenger trains displaced by automobiles, and television. I would say a good ten years sooner, and the conflicts could be worse. The Fraternal Order of the Ku Klux Klan probably would not go bankrupt in 1944 without the Nazi stigma over Aryan supremacy. In this respect, the fifties might become the new sixties.
Civil rights are delayed of some decades,and the process is more slow,but inevitable.
I se progress step by step.
Nothing comparable with OTL,anyway.

Computers: They were gigantic mainframe devices in the sixties. They were not particularly linked to military activity. They were the domains of governments, large corporations and universities at the time. We might see slightly faster growth out of improvements in electronics in general.
I think instead that without cold war and space races (if there are not one) computer development is slightly slower.

The generation gap and the counter-culture: It was the result of a basic conflict of values in the American education system; namely the inability for teachers to adequately reconcile a justification of the Nuremburg trials with American values against ex post facto laws. So, a 21-year old German officer can be held responsible for war crimes because he was supposed to recognize the prison camps violated the Geneva Convention and resign his commission. Refuse to follow orders from Hitler and walk away? Really? This issue, a corollary to the anti-Vietnam movement, never happens.
Bohemians are presents,but at most at OTL beatnik phenomenon size.
I not can see nothing mass counterculture,and as i said in this timeline are not a "baby boom".
Maybe these 60s are a lively and amusing decade,but at least in the OTL 20s way (without proibition that also without FDR and great depression i think is abolished at least from early 40s,if not before, because not work).
 
Well,.France,Germany,Italy and others countries had draft also before WW-I,so is possible that remain in those nations,draft is
maintained (even with few months of service).

Without the wars, the whole thought process over the military is different. You may have institutions more like the Peace Corps (foreign development) or Vista (addresses domestic poverty).

I think that probably in this timeline the 20s are not too much "roaring",but sexual mores evolve quickly from 30s,and is probable that pill came in late 40s.
However i not see any "baby boom" in 40s or 50s.

There is no baby boom because there is no reason for so many people wait until 1945 to start or expand families. Sexual openness is a different issue. Before the sixties, if a child asked "where do babies come from?" the parents could say they were not old enough to know that. With the birth control pill in the news, the issue can not be so easily avoided.


Maybe these 60s are a lively and amusing decade,but at least in the OTL 20s way (without proibition that also without FDR and great depression i think is abolished at least from early 40s,if not before, because not work).
It was said that prohibition was extended to include beer and wine to spite those of German decent during WWI. If prohibition only involved distilled liquor, the effects are substantial. Organized crime would be less developed. Given the way American marijuana laws were adopted worldwide, a ban on distilled liquor could affect the policies of other countries. I could imagine a system where eventually, licensed bartenders could serve mixed drinks only if the mix complied with an alcohol percentage limit. Rum and Coca-Cola is bottled pre-mixed.
 
Given the way American marijuana laws were adopted worldwide, a ban on distilled liquor could affect the policies of other countries. I could imagine a system where eventually, licensed bartenders could serve mixed drinks only if the mix complied with an alcohol percentage limit. Rum and Coca-Cola is bottled pre-mixed.

On the other hand, with the US as but one of several great powers, why would the world follow their lead? Prohibition never really spread beyond North America, and it's likely that most Europeans would have seen it as silly.

On the matter of space, it is possible that it might be pursued as a prestige project by various nations, similarly to OTL. It might be fused with a pure science motivation, as was common in ante-bellum Europe.
 
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