1960s in a central Powers victory world.

Germany launches an immediate war of conquest against German Austria, and the rest descends into bloody wars that somehow end up creating borders very similar to OTL, with a Czechoslovakia (called Slovakoczechia to be alternate), Hungary, Croatia, and Bosnia with exact OTL borders.

The Ottoman Empire launches an Armenian Genocide and kills all the Armenians in Russia, and the Georgians too because they just like killing Caucasian Christians, and they annex Greece. However, they are unable to hold onto the Arabs, who fall apart into states with the exact same borders as OTL, including an Israel. Obviously none of the states in the region are democratic- Muslims can't have democracy, silly!

Adolf Hitler becomes a famous artist, and then uses that as a springboard to take over Germany. He is proclaimed Kaiser by the German Parliament (Imperial Germany had a parliament, right? Well it does now.) and starts World War II, even though Germany already controls everything. Sealion succeeds, and then Operation Killer Whale conquers the mainland USA.

Russia goes ultra-Orthodox, led by Patriarch Joseph Stalin. Why? I don't know, it sounds cool, though.
 
Perhaps a three-way Cold-war?

I havent posted here in Ages, but CP victory scenarios ALWAYS pique my curiosity.

I would say that by 1960, there would be a three-way cold war in full swing, with the United States and Germany being the OBVIOUS first two, while the third party is up for debate.

Probably not Japan, as a war with the US was all but inevitable.
England and France (after being beaten twice) would be little more than German-Dominated economic puppets(along with most of europe)
Russia, maybe. Perhaps taking the place of Red China in OTL.
China, perhaps. Being the leaders of a "third-bloc"

my $.02

Scott

p.s. I wonder if anyone has speculation on how the militaries of this 1960 would look? (Would the High Seas fleet have Supercarriers? Would the B-70 Valkyrie be pursued to production? etc.)
 
Hmm... Britain probably allies with Germany against resurgent France, impoverished U.S.A. and of course Russia with Japan either in or out. Germany wins, and France joins that Latin Union everyone likes to talk about. Cold War with either Britain or someone else.
 
Hmm... Britain probably allies with Germany against resurgent France, impoverished U.S.A. and of course Russia with Japan either in or out. Germany wins, and France joins that Latin Union everyone likes to talk about. Cold War with either Britain or someone else.

Why is the USA impoverished, and why does the UK ally with Germany?
 
Still, it's going to be...interesting to see what happens as Western ideas start to penetrate a little more thoroughly into the Ottoman intelligensia. It might also be possible that a surviving, moderinizing Ottoman state could become the target of a fundamentalist revival, like how the Pahlavis of Iran modernized quite well during the Cold War, only to get caught with their pants down by the mullahs.

As for the wider world, I have a feeling that Russia (monarchy, republic, Soviet, fascist) is probably screwed.

I'll agree with Soviet or White Russian/Restored Monarchy Russia, the first due to the likelihood of Germany smash! at some point, the second due to it's probable unpopularity, legitimacy problems (put in power with German guns, most likely) and reactionary politics, but I dunno about the other two. Some sort of native right-wing authoritarianism might do a reasonable job of modernization (see, various countries in east Asia), as might a republic (probably left-wing, if non-Soviet): sure, they'll probably remain realtively backward for decades, but I find it hard to imagine that they'll be as relatively screwed-up as OTL's post-Soviet Russia (which is presently running at about 1/2 Mexico's GNP/cap). If we say Russia does as well as Franco's Spain, using the Penn World Tables(http://pwt.econ.upenn.edu/php_site/pwt62/pwt62_form.php ) a Russia confined to Russia proper+central Asia might have a population sans Stalin or Hitler as high as 180 millions and a GDP 40% as large as that of the US.

Bruce
 
The following info is from a "what if" book published in Finland in 2005 (historians looking into different AH scenarios etc., to my knowledge the first of it's kind in Finland; there has also been a follow-up book with more scenarios, have them both).

In a Central Powers victory world there would be an independent Finland, but it might be a kingdom instead of a republic. This kingdom of Finland might have different borders, maybe something like in the OTL Tartu peace treaty of 1920. If the victorious Germany has backed Finland up in post-war border "negotiations", Finland might have even larger areas in Eastern Karelia (something like in the "Greater Finland" aspirations of certain circles during WW2).

The first king of Finland could be prince Friedrich Karl of Hessen.

The parliament/senate of Finland would have a monarchist majority consisting of the Swedish Party, independence activists and, above all, the conservative "Old Finnish" Party (vanhasuomalaiset), which will in time become the National Coalition Party (Kansallinen Kokoomus). Also the majority of the "Young Finnish" Party (nuorsuomalaiset) or so called 'Svinhufvudians' would be part of this conservative block.

The political opposition might consist of 'republicans': Agrarian League (Maalaisliitto), which will in time become the Centre Party (Keskustapuolue); the leftist side of the "Young Finnish" Party, so called 'ståhlbergians' or 'holstians'; and, finally, the Social Democratic Party (which might have a hard time in the post-war conservative/royalist climate).

This Kingdom of Finland would be in a political, economical and possibly also in a military alliance with Germany.

The society would be more conservative and "rightist" than in OTL. The left would be a politically controlled force, not unlike in the OTL Eastern European dictatorships in the 1930's. The development of the (social-democratic) welfare state would be postponed greatly. Eastern Europe would be "finlandizied" towards Germany; a so called "Berlin card" would be often played in the poker table of national politics. German "contacts" (regarding politics) would be greatly appreciated.

Germany might have crushed Bolshevism in its cradle in St. Petersburg (Lenin, Stalin, all the others put against a wall and shot by German forces?). Depends WHEN Germany would win the war. Russia might have a conservative, "German-minded", White-Russian government, monarchy/republic, whatever... Maybe St. Petersburg would still be Russia's capital?

Finland's capital Helsinki might have had an extensive facelift to transform it into a capital suitable for a kingdom (I'm thinking of Eliel Saarinen's Munkkiniemi-Haaga plan of 1915 or something like that - an extensive Jugend-style city centre with boulevards several kilometers long, and so on... This is a personal favourite of mine ;-)).

As much as I love the idea of Kingdom of Finland, I have to say that in a such situation Finland would essentially a German Protectorate.
 
Again, I doubt that France or Britain would 'go fascist' following their defeat. One of the main factors in Hitler's rise was the relative suddeness of German democracy, and the many flaws that that democracy held (Article 48 of the Weimar Constitution etc.)- neither the UK, nor France, had such problems, being two of the three oldest and greatest democracies...
It might seem a little wishy- washy, but I tend to think of British governments as being inherently moderate- the Brits aren't an extreme people...
 
About who? You need to be pretty obvious if you're talking about a scenario where somehow the people of Europe are happy to have Jewish people kicked out and think of them as terrorists, or where people expect to hear that as a standard AH.

Agree, Gobineu was not anti-semite himself, but much of his thinking was springboard was most later racists.

If I posted OTL history of Germany from 1935-1945, would you call me obvious too? Plus in the French case I never spoke of jewish terrorists, I spoke of jewish terrorists in Ottoman Turkey- and even provided mention of OTL Jewish militias, which you deigned yourself to be above to comment on. In France I spoke about Judo-Bolshevism a thing clearly taken from one OTL Adolf Hitler.
 
Again, I doubt that France or Britain would 'go fascist' following their defeat. One of the main factors in Hitler's rise was the relative suddeness of German democracy, and the many flaws that that democracy held (Article 48 of the Weimar Constitution etc.)- neither the UK, nor France, had such problems, being two of the three oldest and greatest democracies...
It might seem a little wishy- washy, but I tend to think of British governments as being inherently moderate- the Brits aren't an extreme people...
The French are probably going to have problems. The turnover rate of governments in the Third Republic between the wars was often on the order of once per year, and there were a rather surprising amount of right-wing parties that appeared during (and before) the period calling for a drastic reconfiguration of the Republic, if not its abolition.
 
I'd have to agree that the Third Republic probably couldn't survive a Central Powers victory; major military defeats do have a pretty consistent record of bringing down the French government and producing something new. Of course, we could end up with a Third Kingdom, Third Empire, or Fourth Republic, or something completely new. A nationalist regime of some sort which wants to avenge France's honor is certainly quite possible, but as others have pointed out France is not going to have nearly as much potential power as Germany; they demographically devastated by winning the war in OTL, and I would think losing would hurt them worse.

Britain collapsing and going fascist strikes me as unlikely; Britain has a much more stable government than France, and they would most likely get a status quo ante or similar peace with Germany in a CP victory scenario, which would not be likely to arouse nationalist anger.
 
As much as I love the idea of Kingdom of Finland, I have to say that in a such situation Finland would essentially a German Protectorate.

In the book I mentioned they provide a few good arguments against the protectorate idea. The writers specifically ask the question: "Did the Germans had same kind of objectives in Finland that they had in the Baltic states and in Ukraine?", meaning annexation to Germany / protectorate state.

The writers argue that this wasn't in the picture back then.

Finland already was a thankful and reliable de facto ally of Germany, because of the small expeditionary force the Germans sent to aid the White side of the Finnish civil war. A very small contribution from the Germans formed a quite germanophile Finnish state. The Germans at that time didn't have any ideological or racial mission like Hitler had about 20 years later. Finland was much more useful and easier to handle as an independent Germanophile monarchy/republic than a protectorate. Why create unnecessary animosity among the Finns by 'forcing' them to be your direct protectorate/vassal state, when you could achieve your necessary goals so much easier using other means?

Germans HAD BEEN in the Baltic states already for centuries; it was seen basically as their 'home turf'. There was a Germanic (German-speaking, culturally German) elite already in place in the Baltics. in Finland they didn't have their 'own people' in place the same way. The Germans had interests in Finland, but at the end it was still a genuine 'foreign country'.

If Finland had crowned a German monarch as their head-of-state (in OTL, they almost did crown him, everything was already in place, but then the Germans lost the war and monarchy was abandoned), the Germans could have given a much greater room for Finland - if Finland chosed to be a republic (as did happen in OTL, much because of the German defeat in the war), they might have kept a tighter leash.

This situation also suited well for Svinhufvud and the Paasikivi senate: Germany was seen as a safeguard and the Finns intended to maintain this situation, at the same time keeping a certain safe distance themselves. If the Germans had won, there might have developed a similar relationship between Finland and Germany as between OTL Finland and Soviet Union. Finlandization and all that, but towards Germany instead of Russia/Soviet Union.
 
England and France (after being beaten twice) would be little more than German-Dominated economic puppets(along with most of europe)

Well, even in the event of a CP victory I can't see Britain very damaged. Perhaps they simply return to the "Splendid Isolation" of Victorian times, thinking that the entry into the Great War (a "foreign war" for Britain, after all) was the biggest mistake in British history.

As for France, it must be crazy to declare another war on Germany, at least as soon as Germany did in OTL. I'm thinking in another possibility: France goes authoritarian and works during years to form a coalition of fascist latin regimes (i.e. Portugal, Spain, Italy, maybe devastated Belgium too) and improves relations with the US, Russia and the Balkan countries. Maybe the Ottomans too, if they feel pissed off after not gaining all what they wanted in the peace treaties. The French can think that they fought well in their wars against Germany but lost because they had not enough foreign support. Aditionally, French agents can help in the explosion of a civil war in Austria-Hungary a la Yugoslavia in the 30s or 40s. This leaves Germany almost alone, with the only clear support of Poland, the Baltic countries, Finland and Ukraine - perfect to be attacked simultaneously by the communists in the east and the fascists in the west in 1950.

By the way, if the French regime needs a scapegoat I think that it could be the Algerians (a POD with a massive African mutiny in the western front leading to German victory might work well). Think in massive deportations to the French Sudan and an Atlas populated mainly by Jews and Pied-Noirs...

China, perhaps. Being the leaders of a "third-bloc"
I agree that the fate of China in TTL would be interesting. Even with a victory in Europe the German colonies in Asia and Oceania are lost, probably "sold" to Japan and Australia & New Zealand or even the US. In that case, the Kaiser could recover his old ca.1910 project of a German-American-Chinese alliance against Japan-Britain-Russia in the Far East, and starts an earlier and stronger Sino-German cooperation than in OTL. The main difference with the emerging China of OTL is that this China will be nationalist instead of communist.
 
With a CP victory, regardless of 1914, 1918 or in between, Germany would recover her colonies and probably absorb at least the Belgian Congo and perhaps the Portuguese African colonies, becoming a true global power.

There would be a Mittel-Europa (probably superior to the Common Market) along with a Mittel-Afrika. The Germans already had an economic stranglehold on the Ottoman Empire so they would complete their Berlin to Baghdad railroad.

Probably with the about to-be-realized great oil discoveries in Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia(all part of the Ottoman Empire), the Ottoman Empire would become Germany's "India" and she would be the dominant oil producer for decades to come with all the power that that has signified.

There would be no Holocaust and all the refugees from fascist oppression (Einstein, Neils Bohr, Enrico Fermi) would have probably stayed in their own countries and Germany would have reaped the scientific benefits that became America's by default.

Wernher von Braun and other German scientists who essentially launched both the Russian and American space programs would have ensured that Germany was the first nation in space probably by the 1960s.

The Germans would have forced Japan to give back their Kiaochau colony, much like the German-French-Russian ultimatum forced Japan to give up Chinese territory in 1895. This might lead to bad blood between Germany and Japan that a revengeful England could exploit.

Austria-Hungary might have evolved from the "Double Monarchy" into a Tripartite Monarchy giving the Slavs a stake much as they had earlier done for the Hungarians. Certainly this is what the Emperor Karl, who succeeded Francis Joseph in 1916, would have wanted.
 
The U.S.S.R. could very well still emerge in some capacity. Germany may be too exhausted to put down Communism in Russia with a late POD.

True, after the war Germany would have some other things to do.

But within only a few years, the Germans would invade the USSR. The Kaiser and the generals will never accept a communist state.
Unlike Nazi-Germany, a CP-won-WWI-Germany in the 1920s would be more than capable of defeating the Soviets. Thus in 1960, communism is no more.
 
Unlike Nazi-Germany, a CP-won-WWI-Germany in the 1920s would be more than capable of defeating the Soviets. Thus in 1960, communism is no more.

Would it? For all we know the economy would not be well off either and Soviet Union with armed Russia on borders would be quite different beast too.
 
An armed USSR would allow the CPs to militarize and normalize relations with the US/Allies. France may well go Communist or at least strongly Socialist and a Paris-Moscow Axis might emerge (Perhaps under Blum?). The Balkans become another regional battleground for ideaolgical supremacy with proxy wars as one leader rises/falls between CPs and Communists.
 
True, after the war Germany would have some other things to do.

But within only a few years, the Germans would invade the USSR. The Kaiser and the generals will never accept a communist state.
Unlike Nazi-Germany, a CP-won-WWI-Germany in the 1920s would be more than capable of defeating the Soviets. Thus in 1960, communism is no more.

While true, I doubt that they will seek to congquer most of Russia, opting instead to install a friendly regime in either Moscow or Petrograd. All of this depends, however, on how well the Germans do elsewhere.
 
While true, I doubt that they will seek to congquer most of Russia, opting instead to install a friendly regime in either Moscow or Petrograd. All of this depends, however, on how well the Germans do elsewhere.

Of course, Russia won't be included in the German Empire.

I propose the typical AH-peace terms: Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, Ukraine and kaukasian provinces independent under some German princes, tsar reimposed, economic favours for German industry, military restrictions for Russian armed forces.
 
Interesting Scenario..

I think a lot depends on "when" such a Central Powers victory and under what circumstances. I imagine we're discounting the "quick" German victory scenario of 1914 as a re-run of 1870 with no British involvement.

Could Germany have won if America had not entered the conflict in 1917 ? It's possible the final German offensive might have forced the British and French to seek terms. This would be much less than a victory - more like the peace of exhausted rivals. It's true to say that by the summer of 1918 all the main protagonists are weary and facing potential civil disruption.

I suspect that a "peace" signed by the exhausted would not mark the end of chaos and confusion but the beginning of a period of chronic instability in Europe as unreformed political structures struggled to cope with the consequences of war and social and economic dislocation.

How would Imperial Germany deal with its new "empire" in the east and a resurgent Russia ? Even if the client states created by Brest-Litovsk survived, they would have to be militarily protected by Germany and I think a new Russo-German War is pretty much inevitable with Stalin fighting not Hitler but the Kaiser and a new generation of battle-hardened commanders.

For France, the "failure" of 1914-18 would be as psychologically damaging as 1871. The political framework of the Third Republic might struggle to deal with extemist elements of BOTH Right and Left.

Britain, too, will face greater economic, social and political instability. There will be many who will ask if the sacrifice of lives was worth it and will move away from traditional politics. Both the Liberals and Conservatives will be scarred by the war and Labour will emerge as the new political force in the 1920s and 1930s.

Beyond that..for how long can the autocracy in Germany keep a lid on demands for reform ? Probably not indefinitely - there will be a "revolution" at some point but marking a transition to insecure democracy in the face of the growing Communist threat. France may well seek a new alliance with Soviet Russia against Germany while Britain opts for a more isolationist course.

So...WW2 in the early 40s with France and Russia lined up against Germany ? It's possible and this time Germany loses big time. French and Soviet forces meet at Torgau on April 25th 1945 and divide Germany between them.

Europe post-1945 starts off bi-polar with France and Russia dominant. In response, Britain and the United States move closer. The rest of Europe either falls under French domination (Spain, Portugal, Italy, Austria) - the so-called "Catholic Axis" while Soviet Russia dominates the east.

The world fifty years after the end of WW1 is a fragile place. There are a number of power blocs:

ATO - the Atlantic Treaty Organisation, founded in 1953. Founder members are the USA, Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. South Africa joined after the end of apartheid in 1992. Iceland is an associate member. More a military than an economic association though Washington aims to launch the Atlantic/Pacific Trade Association (APTA) in 1975.

Paris Treaty Countries- known as the "Catholic Axis". Founded in 1949 by France but including Spain, Portugal, Italy, Austria, Slovenia, western Germany, Ireland (joined 1958), large parts of Africa, Vietnam, Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela, Peru and Colombia. More economic than military except for the European countries who are militarily linked to Paris by the Axis Alliance of 1958.

Warsaw Pact- the military organisation (COMECON is the economic equivalent). Founded in Moscow in 1949 - it consists of Poland, Slovakia, Rumania, Bulgaria, Serbia, Croatia, Albania and Greece. Russian troops are not stationed in every country but have been used to put down internal uprisings in Hungary (1956) and Slovakia (1967).

Japanese Empire - Japan conquered China from 1931-45 but has had problems administering that vast country along with Korea and Mongolia. There have been skirmishes with the Soviet Union on a number of occasions in the 1950s and 60s and the next most likely regional conflict will be in east Asia.

The Ottoman Empire - against all the odds, the Empire has survived though it is barely recognisable from the entity which fought WW1. Internal reforms in the 1920s led to the virtual deposition of the Sultanate and a shift to a more technocratic power structure. In the 1930s, the Empire broke away from Germany and established better relations with France. The coming of oil in Arabia and Mesopotamia transformed the Empire. The re-emergence of Russia as a powerful regional rival in the late 1940s following the Soviet annexation of the Balkans led to the Ottomans fostering strong economic and military links with Japan as a counterweight to Franco-Soviet domination.

In 1958, the Ottomans signed an alliance with Iran and the two powers dominate the world oil market. Egypt is outside the Empire but another ally.

Elsewhere, India established its independence in 1952 but has faced considerable inter-racial conflict leading to the formation of the breakaway states of Pakistan and Bangla Desh. The latter has been actively courted by Japan as has Tibet and Bhutan.

The Scandinavian countries formed their own union in 1935 and remain independent of the other power blocs though a secret treaty in 1940 guaranteed French military support in the event of war with Russia.
 
Of course, Russia won't be included in the German Empire.

I propose the typical AH-peace terms: Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, Ukraine and kaukasian provinces independent under some German princes, tsar reimposed, economic favours for German industry, military restrictions for Russian armed forces.

I might add military bases for Germany on Russian soil, particularly one at or near Vladivostok.
 
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