How about if Germany does not declare war on the USA. they focus on Japan.
FDR was already dead set on a war with Nazi Germany, and had been increasingly involving the USA in the conflict as much as possible. Even if you avoid Hitler's declaration of war, there's still massive amounts of Lend-Lease flowing to Germany's enemies, while the USA would practically be fighting the Battle of the Atlantic by this point.
Germany is better able to fight the soviet Union and takes the Caucas and everything west of the Urals, maybe extorts resources from the SU.
It's not that simple, your PoD does little to influence the Eastern Front. Defeating the USSR is stupendously difficult and needs to be explored in far more detail.
They make good gains in Africa and the Middle east. Problems in India are happening with Indian Nationalism, and the riots. With Iraq and Iran a place of conflict in which the populace favours the Axis less oil and men are there in India since the British are losing the oil fields. This creates an even larger famine than OTL
Again, it's not that simple. Axis campaigns in Africa and the Middle East are vastly limited by logistics. They have one port in Africa, and it's sub-par. Then they have thousands of kilometres of poor roads for their supply lines. Campaigning in the Middle East means supply lines running through Turkey or the Caucasus, which is ridiculous. Again, thousands of kilometres of poorly maintained roads, with one of the routes being through occupied and hostile Soviet territory.
By 1945 a ceasefire has pretty much occured with Britain and America in control of much of Asia while the Axis are in control of much of the Middle east and the Soviet Union. whoever is in charge tells Albert speer to bring Germany and her controlled areas up to USA level production
If, and that is a huge if, Germany secures continental Europe, it is entirely plausible that a de facto ceasefire will unfold. I'm doubtful they will have access to the Middle East and the important parts of the Soviet Union however.
But it doesn't matter. The Nazis are evil and stupid, and running an Empire incredibly unsuited to competing with the USA. The two powers will have more or less equal population, and that is their only similarity. The USA has the most modern industry and management practices in the world. They're allied with or can tap a huge area of the world outside their own borders. Axis Europe is maybe 1/4th German, holding down the rest through brutal occupation and brutality. Enforced serfdom on Eastern Europe at the point of a gun does not give you productivity.
To get Nazi Germany competing on an even footing with the USA, you need it to solve so many problems. Resource shortages, productivity in occupied territory, holding down an entire continent through force of arms, deranged scientific ideas, political corruption and cronyism, damaged cities and infrastructure from the bombing campaign.
Just saying that Hitler doesn't declare war on the USA, or that Speer will "fix things" is not going to cut it.