1948 decided in the House of Representatives

The idea for this came from fooling around with that election calculator/election results site. If the information there is correct, Dewey came very very close to winning In Ohio and California and Illinois. Now winning all three states would result in an outright Dewey victory, but the results in those states, if the information from the site is accurate, presents an interesting possibility. It seems as if Ohio and California were slightly closer than Illinois was. So let's say that Dewey does every so slightly better, winning Ohio and California, but losing Illinois to Truman as he did historically.

The final election results electorally is

Truman: 254
Dewey: 239
Thurmond: 38

Despite the vote changes in Ohio and California, Truman does edge out Dewey in the popular vote.

If I have the electoral math right, neither Dewey nor Truman have enough electoral votes to win the election. Consequently, the election goes to the House of Representatives. If I remember correctly the House was Republican dominated in 1948. As a result, it seems likely that the House would pick Thomas Dewey and Earl Warren to be President/Vice President respectively.

Despite the fact that Truman received more popular and electoral votes, if I'm right about how the House would decide the election, it will be Dewey-not Truman-who becomes President come January 20th 1949.

What would be the overall impact of having the 1948 election decided in that manner. How would that kind of result affect the ways in which Truman and Dewey are perceived? Would there be calls for some kind of electoral reform among Democrats in the aftermath of Dewey's victory? How is the Dewey administration affected by this path to the Presidency, if at all?

I realize that a situation in which Dewey wins California and Ohio is also likely to result in a victory in Illinois as well, but bare with me for the sake of argument.
 
It would be the new House not the old that picks the President.

Order is this

3 January: New Congress takes office

6 January (or thereabouts): Electoral votes are counted

After the votes are counted, it goes to the House.

Per wikipedia it looks like the Dems control 25 states, the GOP has 19 and 4 are split. Admittedly of the 25 the Dems have 4 are deep south states (SC/GA/AL/MI) but that is still a 21-19 majority.

And I don't see either side dealing with Thurmond, certainly not Dewey.

So Truman gets elected, at least IMHO though I would love to hear your thinking
 
It will cost him...

It would be the new House not the old that picks the President.

Order is this

3 January: New Congress takes office

6 January (or thereabouts): Electoral votes are counted

After the votes are counted, it goes to the House.

Per wikipedia it looks like the Dems control 25 states, the GOP has 19 and 4 are split. Admittedly of the 25 the Dems have 4 are deep south states (SC/GA/AL/MI) but that is still a 21-19 majority.

And I don't see either side dealing with Thurmond, certainly not Dewey.

So Truman gets elected, at least IMHO though I would love to hear your thinking

The southern delegations will probably seek a pledge regarding civil rights and/or other issues in exchange for supporting Truman.
 
It would be the new House not the old that picks the President.

Order is this

3 January: New Congress takes office

6 January (or thereabouts): Electoral votes are counted

After the votes are counted, it goes to the House.

Per wikipedia it looks like the Dems control 25 states, the GOP has 19 and 4 are split. Admittedly of the 25 the Dems have 4 are deep south states (SC/GA/AL/MI) but that is still a 21-19 majority.

And I don't see either side dealing with Thurmond, certainly not Dewey.

So Truman gets elected, at least IMHO though I would love to hear your thinking

How? When?

The votes will be 4 for Thurmond, 21 for Dewey, 19 for Truman, 4 divided, right?

And election requires 25 States, not 21. So the House can deadlock till cows come home (as they did in 1800, with 8 for Jefferson, 6 for Burr and 2 divided).

Meanwhile the Senate can proceed with election of Vice President. With just 2 candidates.

If on 20th of January, 1949, Vice President is elected but House is deadlocked, what next?
 
How? When?

The votes will be 4 for Thurmond, 21 for Dewey, 19 for Truman, 4 divided, right?

And election requires 25 States, not 21. So the House can deadlock till cows come home (as they did in 1800, with 8 for Jefferson, 6 for Burr and 2 divided).

Meanwhile the Senate can proceed with election of Vice President. With just 2 candidates.

If on 20th of January, 1949, Vice President is elected but House is deadlocked, what next?

Then the VP succeeds to the Presidency.
 
I presume some sort of compromise between Dewey and Truman to elect Truman (since he won election) and avoid messing with Thurmond.

Or you have President Barkley (D)

How? When?

The votes will be 4 for Thurmond, 21 for Dewey, 19 for Truman, 4 divided, right?

And election requires 25 States, not 21. So the House can deadlock till cows come home (as they did in 1800, with 8 for Jefferson, 6 for Burr and 2 divided).

Meanwhile the Senate can proceed with election of Vice President. With just 2 candidates.

If on 20th of January, 1949, Vice President is elected but House is deadlocked, what next?
 
Fellow Senator Barkley (D) of course.
With which vote count?

Since there is no Vice President (Truman was and he succeeded), Senate is headed by president pro tempore, and the votes are even 96. So what about, 20th of January 1949 arrives, and the Senate is tied 48-48 (and the House has not elected either)?
 

Thande

Donor
Interesting idea. If the HoR puts Dewey in place despite having won less votes, I think there might be a big push among angry Democrats for a constitutional amendment to abolish the electoral college system--as well as vitriol directed at Thurmond and the Dixiecrats (great rock band) for putting them in this situation.
 
How? When?

The votes will be 4 for Thurmond, 21 for Dewey, 19 for Truman, 4 divided, right?

And election requires 25 States, not 21. So the House can deadlock till cows come home (as they did in 1800, with 8 for Jefferson, 6 for Burr and 2 divided).

Actually since there would be 25 total Democratic votes, and 4 of those would probably vote for Thurmond, Truman would have 21 votes and Dewey would have 19. Although that doesn't make the largest difference in the world.

Now, I don't think the House would remain perpetually deadlocked but the resolution in the House is unclear. The most stubborn votes are probably going to be the Thurmond votes. I can't see either Dewey or Truman being willing to deal with Thurmond to either become or remain President. If Dewey and Truman don't make a deal with Thurmond's Dixiecrats, the decision will have to be made by either Republican or Democratic defections. You either need to have 4 Republican votes going to Truman or 6 Democratic votes going to Dewey. So, the election depends on Truman's ability to convince congressional republicans to cross the aisle-awkward. The question here is how would potential "defectors" be courted?

Or would Dewey simply make a deal with Truman, and afterwords secretly persuade 4 Republican state delegations to vote against him?
 
With which vote count?

Since there is no Vice President (Truman was and he succeeded), Senate is headed by president pro tempore, and the votes are even 96. So what about, 20th of January 1949 arrives, and the Senate is tied 48-48 (and the House has not elected either)?


That was the former Senate. The New one, elected in 1948, is firmly (54-42) Democratic, and will elect Barkley on the first ballot.

Once this happens, the Republicans in the House have nothing to gain by continuing the deadlock, so enough of them will remember urgent business back in their districts to allow Truman to be elected.
 
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