"1946" is a work in progress for myself and a team of close colleges centered around the butterfly effect of one change in the OTL of 1914-1946, namely what if Adolf Hitler joined the Kaiserliche Marine in the Great War rather than the Deutsche Heer and the repercussions that would reverberate through the following decades.
Now for the real scenario at hand... THE PACIFIC. But first a little backstory to set it up.
Let's say Lenin still retained control of the Soviet Union into the 40's, even in his ripe old age, and Stalin made no attempt to remove him. Earlier, during the Siberian Intervention, Japan as in the OTL captures the island of Sakhalin, however unlike reality, the Emperor does not relinquish half of the island back to Russia per the Treaty of Portsmouth (1905). Lenin omits the loss and quickly focuses elsewhere. Fast forward to the Second World War and Pearl Harbor is under attack, the carriers: Saratoga, Lexington and Enterprise are moored at port. Extensive damage is suffered, with the first two carriers capsizing and the latter suffering only moderate damage. However not without a fight as the Americans manage to launch several fighters to defend Pearl Harbor. A third wave targeted the Red Hill fuel storage facility and set them ablaze (think the Kuwaiti oil fields after Saddam ignited them in the Gulf War). The remaining damage suffered reflects the OTL. With the Pacific fleet wounded, the US campaign is somewhat delayed though the Atlantic fleet carriers: Hornet, Wasp and Yorktown; would pick up the slack with and Long Island and Ranger being retrofitted for the 3rd Fleet. Coral Sea sees the loss of Yorktown and the newly repaired Enterprise with the destruction of Shoho plus Shokaku put out of action. The following Doolittle Raid on Tokyo unsettles the Japanese high command yet Yamamoto urges for patience. All IJN shipyards and docks relocate to Aniva Bay on the southern end of Sakhalin Island. One by one the islands fall and Japan's Co-prosperity sphere dwindles under the growing might of the United States and Great Britain... but at a cost, as the defending Japanese fight for every square inch to the death. Occasional naval encounters occur, with losses on both sides, and yet the tide turns ever more against Japan. However the growing cream of the IJN is still moored at Sakhalin--far from Allied bombers. Yamamoto, having survived the attempt on his life two years previously, composes one final gambit for the survival of his nation. His target... The 3rd Fleet stationed at Ulithi Atoll in the Caroline Islands. Under complete radio silence, his fleet would slip through the net, hugging the coastline before reaching the South China Sea, the cut through Celebes Sea and pass the Philippines...
Now this is were I get to the swing of things. In the OTL, Japan did launch several Kamikaze attacks against the base with very minimal success. The next inclusion in the topic would be the famed Typhoons Cobra and Viper which caused extensive damage to the US 3rd fleet.
This may be a BIG "what if"... but please, humor me.
If Yamamoto were to use such a storm to his advantage, being he was still alive, could he catch the 3rd fleet off guard while anchored at Ulithi, possibly achieving a second Pearl Harbor?
What about Allied naval screening around the area, would that hinder the operation?
Obviously the Japanese would not be riding out the storm so to say, but rather meet it as the typhoon glides over the Caroline Islands. The distraction could provide them ideal time and cover to stage their attack. Would the attack be realistic, if not feasible and if without the storm, still possible??