1946: Ulithi Atoll and the Divine Wind??

"1946" is a work in progress for myself and a team of close colleges centered around the butterfly effect of one change in the OTL of 1914-1946, namely what if Adolf Hitler joined the Kaiserliche Marine in the Great War rather than the Deutsche Heer and the repercussions that would reverberate through the following decades.

Now for the real scenario at hand... THE PACIFIC. But first a little backstory to set it up.

Let's say Lenin still retained control of the Soviet Union into the 40's, even in his ripe old age, and Stalin made no attempt to remove him. Earlier, during the Siberian Intervention, Japan as in the OTL captures the island of Sakhalin, however unlike reality, the Emperor does not relinquish half of the island back to Russia per the Treaty of Portsmouth (1905). Lenin omits the loss and quickly focuses elsewhere. Fast forward to the Second World War and Pearl Harbor is under attack, the carriers: Saratoga, Lexington and Enterprise are moored at port. Extensive damage is suffered, with the first two carriers capsizing and the latter suffering only moderate damage. However not without a fight as the Americans manage to launch several fighters to defend Pearl Harbor. A third wave targeted the Red Hill fuel storage facility and set them ablaze (think the Kuwaiti oil fields after Saddam ignited them in the Gulf War). The remaining damage suffered reflects the OTL. With the Pacific fleet wounded, the US campaign is somewhat delayed though the Atlantic fleet carriers: Hornet, Wasp and Yorktown; would pick up the slack with and Long Island and Ranger being retrofitted for the 3rd Fleet. Coral Sea sees the loss of Yorktown and the newly repaired Enterprise with the destruction of Shoho plus Shokaku put out of action. The following Doolittle Raid on Tokyo unsettles the Japanese high command yet Yamamoto urges for patience. All IJN shipyards and docks relocate to Aniva Bay on the southern end of Sakhalin Island. One by one the islands fall and Japan's Co-prosperity sphere dwindles under the growing might of the United States and Great Britain... but at a cost, as the defending Japanese fight for every square inch to the death. Occasional naval encounters occur, with losses on both sides, and yet the tide turns ever more against Japan. However the growing cream of the IJN is still moored at Sakhalin--far from Allied bombers. Yamamoto, having survived the attempt on his life two years previously, composes one final gambit for the survival of his nation. His target... The 3rd Fleet stationed at Ulithi Atoll in the Caroline Islands. Under complete radio silence, his fleet would slip through the net, hugging the coastline before reaching the South China Sea, the cut through Celebes Sea and pass the Philippines...

Now this is were I get to the swing of things. In the OTL, Japan did launch several Kamikaze attacks against the base with very minimal success. The next inclusion in the topic would be the famed Typhoons Cobra and Viper which caused extensive damage to the US 3rd fleet.

This may be a BIG "what if"... but please, humor me.
If Yamamoto were to use such a storm to his advantage, being he was still alive, could he catch the 3rd fleet off guard while anchored at Ulithi, possibly achieving a second Pearl Harbor?
What about Allied naval screening around the area, would that hinder the operation?
Obviously the Japanese would not be riding out the storm so to say, but rather meet it as the typhoon glides over the Caroline Islands. The distraction could provide them ideal time and cover to stage their attack. Would the attack be realistic, if not feasible and if without the storm, still possible??
 
This may be a BIG "what if"... but please, humor me.
If Yamamoto were to use such a storm to his advantage, being he was still alive, could he catch the 3rd fleet off guard while anchored at Ulithi, possibly achieving a second Pearl Harbor?
What about Allied naval screening around the area, would that hinder the operation?
Obviously the Japanese would not be riding out the storm so to say, but rather meet it as the typhoon glides over the Caroline Islands. The distraction could provide them ideal time and cover to stage their attack. Would the attack be realistic, if not feasible and if without the storm, still possible??

1. Yamamoto I feel is overrated (I think Ozawa was far better)
2. Allied patrols are pretty heavy, not only surface ships (escorts of various types) but heavy air coverage from seaplanes and PB4Ys (with radar) and of course a heavy American submarine patrol presence around all likely points of deployment for the Combined Fleet
3. Hurricane (typhoon) prediction and tracking was in its infancy still in World War 2, and some years there were few, other years numerous storms. The track varies year to year as well. This is what we know now. Back then we didn't even know any of that, and neither did the Japanese. They had records of what hit places they had a presence at (Home Islands, Truk, Pelelieu etc) but Ulithi and nearby islands were essentially ignored by the Japanese prewar. So to act this quickly requires all forces remaining in position on the assumption that this opportunity will occur. It also requires the Japanese discovering that a tropical storm has hit Ulithi or damaged the 3rd Fleet.

4. There is still the weakness of Japanese pilot quality as of 1944 due to serious losses in the war up to this point
5. We are still reading the Japanese codes and they still do not know we are doing so in 1944-45. Surprise will be iffy at best in those circumstances. If the Japanese were to discover this fact, then things get easier for them.
 
Interesting. Cannot say I am too familiar with Ozawa, but sounds promising.

I do know the Japanese had a weather station on Ulithi, but was abandoned as the Allies stepped in, though the nearby island of Yap--which is where many kamikaze aircraft refueled from the Home Islands <Imagine the flight!>--was still in their control. I suppose it would not be too much of a stretch to suggest the weather station relocated. (Wetter-Funkgerät Land-26 "Kurt" comes to mind.) I'll have to scratch the bottom of the barrel to make this scenario plausible if anything. :confused:
 
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nbcman

Donor
Your path of WW2 doesn't make sense. The IJN would not be patient and basically stay in hiding after a pinprick raid on the Home Islands while their defensive perimeter is stripped away and their oil stocks are exhausted as their fleet is not defending the critical oil wells of the NEI. Their Decisive Battle philosophy was based on having a battle with the USN in the Marshall or Mariana Islands. If the IJN refused battle repeatedly, the US would have proceeded further and the 3rd Fleet might have been bombing the Home Islands in December 1944 as opposed to being at anchor.

Also, the IJN had zero chance to match with the USN in December 1944 in either size or technology. The Japanese knew they had no hope to outbuild the US which is the reason they kept going for the 'knock out' blow earlier in the war. Please review the Combined Fleet page on the grim economic realities on how truly outclassed the Japanese were and how badly outnumbered the Japanese Navy would be in 1944 even if the IJN lost zero carriers at Midway while the USN lost all of theirs.

Overall, if Adm. Yamamoto had proposed this he would have either been removed and given a shore assignment (like Adm. Nagumo) or he would have been assassinated by a junior officer and be replaced with a more traditional officer with a sense of Bushido.
 
Your path of WW2 doesn't make sense. The IJN would not be patient and basically stay in hiding after a pinprick raid on the Home Islands while their defensive perimeter is stripped away and their oil stocks are exhausted as their fleet is not defending the critical oil wells of the NEI. Their Decisive Battle philosophy was based on having a battle with the USN in the Marshall or Mariana Islands. If the IJN refused battle repeatedly, the US would have proceeded further and the 3rd Fleet might have been bombing the Home Islands in December 1944 as opposed to being at anchor.

Also, the IJN had zero chance to match with the USN in December 1944 in either size or technology. The Japanese knew they had no hope to outbuild the US which is the reason they kept going for the 'knock out' blow earlier in the war. Please review the Combined Fleet page on the grim economic realities on how truly outclassed the Japanese were and how badly outnumbered the Japanese Navy would be in 1944 even if the IJN lost zero carriers at Midway while the USN lost all of theirs.

Overall, if Adm. Yamamoto had proposed this he would have either been removed and given a shore assignment (like Adm. Nagumo) or he would have been assassinated by a junior officer and be replaced with a more traditional officer with a sense of Bushido.

Quite right. The Japanese Bushido code is the most important aspect of their society as a war-faring nation at the time. Obviously so the IJN would still attack as in the OTL, all I mean is that specific ships (eg Yamato or Shinano) would be held in reserve like the Kikka, Shin'yo and Type 4 Chi-To/Type 5 Chi-Ri were for the invasion of the Home Islands. As I wrote in my post, battles were lost, which means men and equipment also. Leading to my proposal as to what if the IJN launched a last ditch KAMIKAZE attack of large scale proportions like Operation Ten-Go in the OTL. The entire point of my scenario is to see if such an attack would be plausible, with the goal of Japan to spill as much blood as possible like their initial goals during Operation Downfall. Nothing less, nothing more. :D
 
I'm curious as to what consequences you are imagining for Europe from Hitler joining the Kaiserliche Marine. Hopefully none of that boulderdash from that Third Reich Victorious scenario I remember. He might not even get into politics which throws WW2 out the window completely
 
I'm curious as to what consequences you are imagining for Europe from Hitler joining the Kaiserliche Marine. Hopefully none of that boulderdash from that Third Reich Victorious scenario I remember. He might not even get into politics which throws WW2 out the window completely

I actually have read that book--matter of fact, I own a copy--but rather than imagine such a fanciful, neat end to things I decided instead to tweak certain happenings (i.e. the Butterfly Effect) and play them out accordingly, with the OTL as a reflective guide of sorts. Like for example, absolutely none of the LUFT-46 rubbish--because its not factual, let alone plausible.

And the real question, Lost Freeway, would be "what if" Hitler wasn't easily seasick?? ;)
 
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