1944 Western Front question

By the time of the D-Day landings, the tide in the east had definitely turned. What I'm curious for AH's opinion on is how quickly the Western Allied invasion of France accelerated Germany's final defeat, as opposed to just ensuring a postwar West Germany.
 
The extra manpower on the Eastern front would have slowed the Soviets down.I'd say about a three months to year depending on wether or not Hitler did anything stupid.
 

Deleted member 1487

By the time of the D-Day landings, the tide in the east had definitely turned. What I'm curious for AH's opinion on is how quickly the Western Allied invasion of France accelerated Germany's final defeat, as opposed to just ensuring a postwar West Germany.
The total AFVs available on the Eastern Front was about 4000 in July 1944, 2200 AFVs were committed to the fight in France, including some of the best Panzer divisions left to Germany at that time with nearly full TOEs, like Panzer Lehr and 12th SS. So a 50% increase in the Eastern Front would have been pretty game changing in Summer 1944 in terms of dragging things out. Bagration would have been impossible if the reserves committed to France were instead sent East, even if only say half of the AFVs used IOTL in France. Send the best Panzer divisions to reinforce AG-Center and things get hairy for the Soviets, because even IOTL they took at least as many losses if not considerably more than the Germans to win that battle. Some estimates are roughly double the losses were suffered to win as were taken by AG-Center and 5th Guards Tank army was so smashed that it's commander was fired for incompetence and never held a command position during the war again. That was with relatively minimal armor on had; send 1000 AFVs and the SS Panzer division and Panzer Lehr East instead of having them fight in France and the Soviets don't get nearly as far, suffer far more, and inflict fewer losses on German forces because they cannot close pockets like they did IOTL. It could drag things out quiet a while depending on the course of events, potentially 6 months or so if AG-Center isn't as smashed as IOTL and if AG-North isn't bottled up in the Baltic area.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Normandy#OKW_reserve
Going by this there were 7 Panzer divisions in reserve, 6 SS and 1 regular army.
The remainder of the Panzer divisions could remain in France to defend against a potential landing if worse came to worse. For the sake of argument 17th SS could stay because it lacked a full complement of armor.

So that leaves 1st, 2nd, 9th, 10th, and 12th SS and Panzer Lehr for the East. Assuming they were roughly near TOE they'd have about 1000-1200 AFVs between them. Lehr was exceptionally powerful as it was and elite formation at full strength with combat instructors and the latest equipment. It was smashed badly in Normandy due to airpower, but wouldn't be facing that sort of concentrated air attack in the East, would be quiet deadly for the Soviets if counterattacking their armor spearheads.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_Offensive
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5th_Guards_Tank_Army_(Soviet_Union)#Operation_Bagration
In June 1944, the 5th Guards Tank Army was used as the main exploitation force during the Soviet summer offensive, Operation Bagration. The formation was committed to an attack along and parallel to the main Moscow–Minsk road, following initial breakthroughs by the rifle divisions of 11th Guards Army, and was instrumental in completing the encirclement and destruction of German forces at Minsk. It was then employed in the third phase of Operation Bagration. High casualties in this campaign, however, led to the unit's commander Lieutenant-General Pavel Rotmistrov being relieved of command and replaced with Vasily Volsky.

Had even two of the German Panzer divisions used in Normandy been available for the Battle of Minsk the Soviets would have been in trouble. IOTL 5th Panzer division was alone brought in from AG-North Ukraine to managed to savage part of 5th Guards Tank Army on the way to Minsk; with no Normandy campaign and the OKW reserve available then it is certainly easy to image half of it being committed to Minsk, say 12th SS, 1st SS, and Panzer Lehr, which would likely have stymied the Soviet attempt to take the city, while 5th Panzer stayed in place in Ukraine, helping a lot there when the Soviets attacked in July.

Also if there is no Normandy or subsequent campaigns in 1944 then there aren't the commitment of the Panzerbrigades in the West or the BotB in December, which means probably about 10,000 AFVs that ended up fighting in the West IOTL end up in the East over the course of the year from June-December 1944.
http://www.panzerworld.com/panzer-brigades-in-the-west-1944
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panzer_Brigade
http://www.fireandfury.com/orbats/pzbrig1944.pdf
http://www.gf9.com/Default.aspx?tabid=295&art_id=3375
 
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The total AFVs available on the Eastern Front was about 4000 in July 1944, 2200 AFVs were committed to the fight in France, including some of the best Panzer divisions left to Germany at that time with nearly full TOEs, like Panzer Lehr and 12th SS. So a 50% increase in the Eastern Front would have been pretty game changing in Summer 1944 in terms of dragging things out...

Unquestionably. But - a large part of the Panzertruppen were committed to the defense of the West before the invasion. So it does not seem likely that all of those 2,200 AFVs would have been in the east, or been sent east, even if the US/UK held back from OVERLORD. Assume that something really bizarre happens in May 1944, and the US/UK cancel OVERLORD. The Germans won't know, unless the decision is publicly announced, and so there will be no effect on at least the first half of BAGRATION. All reserves and reinforcements that went west will go east, of course.

Eventually, some forces will be transferred from west to east. The actual catastrophe in the east will loom much bigger when there is no fighting in the west. But how many and when is debatable: the threat in the west will remain. Probably the Germans will strip the western defenses down to the infantry in the static coastal divisions, which will be allowed to "run down".
The western divisions will get no replacements at all, and even units that are static, and not engaged at all, lose a trickle of men: accidents, illness, desertion, transfers, discharges. Maybe 2-3% a month, which over six months starts to add up.
 

Deleted member 1487

Unquestionably. But - a large part of the Panzertruppen were committed to the defense of the West before the invasion. So it does not seem likely that all of those 2,200 AFVs would have been in the east, or been sent east, even if the US/UK held back from OVERLORD. Assume that something really bizarre happens in May 1944, and the US/UK cancel OVERLORD. The Germans won't know, unless the decision is publicly announced, and so there will be no effect on at least the first half of BAGRATION. All reserves and reinforcements that went west will go east, of course.

Eventually, some forces will be transferred from west to east. The actual catastrophe in the east will loom much bigger when there is no fighting in the west. But how many and when is debatable: the threat in the west will remain. Probably the Germans will strip the western defenses down to the infantry in the static coastal divisions, which will be allowed to "run down".
The western divisions will get no replacements at all, and even units that are static, and not engaged at all, lose a trickle of men: accidents, illness, desertion, transfers, discharges. Maybe 2-3% a month, which over six months starts to add up.

Right, but I thought I made clear that using the entire strength in the East probably wouldn't happen (though IIRC the window to invade was closing so if not by June 6th or so then it was impossible until July, which gives the chance to use the OKW strategic reserve in the East). That leaves the strategic reserve for use in the East if the Wallies are in the war, potentially more if for some reason say the US wasn't involved, that there is no invasion in the West. By late June the strategic reserve would have to be used in the east, which means at least half of it, 3 Panzer divisions, most prepared to go.

Actually looking back at the history, 9th and 10th SS divisions were already in the East and IOTL on June 12th sent to Normandy from Ukraine to help counter the invasion. So they would stay put and get transferred to Belarus instead without Normandy. That's 2 divisions right there, but both were worn from fighting in Spring. They probably get sent with 5th Panzer then. 1st SS division was probably the easiest of the Western divisions in OKW reserve, which means it gets sent East first at the same time as the shift to defend Minsk happens. IOTL IIRC 5th and 12th Panzer divisions were sent, while ITTL 9th and 10th SS Panzer divisions could/would also be sent, with the 1st SS Panzer Corps (1st SS, 12th SS, 17th SS, and Panzer Lehr, the Western Front's strategic reserve) potentially being sent en masse or broken up and partially sent.
In terms of the invasion the Germans thought that the weather was going to be too bad for the rest of the month for an invasion to be possible, which is why Rommel was away on leave when the invasion happened IOTL:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erwin_Rommel#Atlantic_Wall_1944
The 5 June storm in the channel seemed to make a landing very unlikely, and a number of the senior officers were away from their units for training exercises and various other efforts. On 4 June the chief meteorologist of the 3 Air Fleet reported that weather in the channel was so poor there could be no landing attempted for two weeks. On 5 June Rommel left France and on 6 June he was at home celebrating his wife's birthday.[242]

With things getting bad for AG-Center I could easily see Hitler taking that information and at least sending the most ready divisions East even with already dispatching the II SS Panzer Corps (9th and 10th SS) ITTL. So I could see Panzer Lehr going at a minimum to reinforce II SS Panzer Corps and perhaps then 1st SS, leaving half of the 1st SS Panzer Corps as a strategic reserve just in case. That still leaves the West with a lot of defensive strength in terms of armor if needed, but I could also see Hitler getting desperate and continually stripping out the west to shore up the east.

So would you say it is fair that without Normandy happening, let's say things are delayed two months due to a storm smashing up landing craft and damaging the Mulberry harbors, and Hitler feels that the immediate situation demands it and the weather situation being what it is, so in addition to sending the historical reinforcements also dispatches I SS Panzer Corps from France (4 Panzer Divisions) and II SS Panzer Corps (2 division) from Ukraine? 6 divisions would be necessary to save what's left of AG-Center, but that leaves several Panzer divisions with the West, just depriving them of the 4 in strategic reserve that were there, plus the 2 that were brought in from the East after the Wallies landed.

Edit:
I'm figuring that the first wave of support arrives as per OTL, but due to reinforcements 5th and 12th Panzer are used together to defend against 5th Guards Tank Army, while the II SS Panzer Corps (9th and 10th SS) are used south of Minsk to hold the line (or vice versa) and relieve the 383rd infantry division at Bobruisk and check the Soviet 65th army, et al, coming up from that direction (there were additional German units in the area at the time to help too). They may be shifted before June 26th too, the date 5th Panzer was transferred (arriving on the 27th), to support AG-Center.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipe...gration_minsk_pocket_1944_june_29-july_03.png

5th and 12th Panzer divisions would then fight together at Borrisov, where, if they could hold the line, would prevent what remained of 4th Army in the center from collapsing when it's flanks were pushed in IOTL. That should buy time for the I SS Panzer Corps to show up with some air support and derail the Bagration plan to encircle AG-Center entirely, though they will certainly smash it up pretty badly. Then the two SS Panzer Corps are stuck in the East and will not be available for the West if/when the Wallies move (if they do ITTL).
 
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PlasmaTorch

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By the time of the D-Day landings, the tide in the east had definitely turned. What I'm curious for AH's opinion on is how quickly the Western Allied invasion of France accelerated Germany's final defeat, as opposed to just ensuring a postwar West Germany.

The invasion of france sped up the defeat of nazi germany by at least three months, probably more. After the falaise pocket and the retreat to the siegfried line, hitler should have known the game was well and truly up, and all he could do was make germanys surrender more favorable. He could have done this by transfering most of his troops to the east in order to stalemate the soviets. That would leave the backdoor open for the anglo-americans, allowing them to seize nearly all of germany before the USSR could.

Instead, hitler deluded himself into thinking he could bring the western allys to the bargaining table with the ardennes offensive. It was his greatest and last mistake of the war.

The extra manpower on the Eastern front would have slowed the Soviets down.I'd say about a three months to year depending on wether or not Hitler did anything stupid.

If the germans aren't actively engaged in combat in france, then they would certainly do better against the soviets. Although they still need to keep quite a few divisions there as insurance against future invasion, along with a few more divisions in italy.
 

Deleted member 1487

By the time of the D-Day landings, the tide in the east had definitely turned. What I'm curious for AH's opinion on is how quickly the Western Allied invasion of France accelerated Germany's final defeat, as opposed to just ensuring a postwar West Germany.
As opposed to what? No D-day and a greater push in Italy? Wallied neutrality? If we are supposing that the D-day invasion is called off due to ASBs then Italy becomes an even bigger front and the Anzio landings happen with the necessary support to make it more likely to succeed in it's goals, while a Balkans invasion probably happens. The Wallies will find a way to tie down the Germans even without a France invasion. But if our counterfactual to figure out how much of a help the Western Front was, in so doing assume all else remains the same but for no French Front, then the Germans can use their full weight in the West in the East and probably drag things out for at least 6 additional months if not more depending on the course of events (no collapse in Romania and defection of Romania means things can drag on for a while), but if the Germans need to still defend in the West to a degree due to the Wallies having a chance to invade, then things don't last nearly as long, because only a fraction of forces used in the West can be used in the East. So I'd say that assuming a full shift East but for an occupation force, then the Western Front easily sped up the war's conclusion by 6 months or maybe even more and spared the Soviets at least 1 million more dead and potentially several million more casualties and a lot more damage to their country.
 
Send the best Panzer divisions to reinforce AG-Center and things get hairy for the Soviets, because even IOTL they took at least as many losses if not considerably more than the Germans to win that battle.
Was this due to superior German tactics or the advantage of being on the defensive?
 

Deleted member 1487

Was this due to superior German tactics or the advantage of being on the defensive?
Arguably both, but the 'superior tactics' is much more an issue of actually inferior Soviet tactics and lack of training, as there was huge turnover in Soviet infantry leading up to the offensive, who were expected to breakthrough German defenses. The Germans being on the defensive in heavily prepared positions coupled with rather ham handed breakthrough tactics by the Soviets cost them badly.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Bagration#Bobruysk_Offensive
The Bobruysk Offensive, against Ninth Army on the southern flank of Army Group Centre, was opened by the 1st Belorussian Front on 23 June, but suffered heavy losses attempting to penetrate the German defenses. Rokossovsky ordered additional bombing and artillery preparation, and launched further attacks the next day.
When at first you don't succeed apply more dakka and men.

Toward the end of the offensive German reinforcements were able to counterattack overextended Soviet spearheads and hurt them too, plus as mentioned before, 5th Guards Tank Army unexpectedly ran into a Tiger Brigade during the rush on Minsk and suffered accordingly, which IIRC happened a few times to different units.

Edit:
According to Robert Forcyzk the Germans had about 1000 operational AFVs as of May 31st 1944, so there seems to have been a massive shortage of operational armor despite having a lot more than that on hand. Only 86 operational AFVs were with AG-Center. AG-North had 73, it seems about half were with 12th Panzer and shifted south on June 27th or so IOTL.

So just II SS Panzer Corps would be a massive addition of strength if coupled with the transfer of 5th and 12th Panzer as per OTL, probably more than double what they got. Then add in 1st SS Panzer Corps with it's 4 full strength divisions (17th SS seems to have been a Panzergrenadier division rather than a Panzer Division) would have added in probably close to 700 or more AFVs. Adding those 6 divisions (1st and 2nd SS Panzer Corp) probably puts over 1000 AFVs to AG-Center that were not there IOTL and if arriving in waves starting in late June through early July that would derail the Soviet offensive, though not stop it completely.
 
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