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http://www.jstor.org/stable/3017044?seq=8

The third occasion when Turkey was expected to enter the war was in 1944. Twelve months before, Mr. Churchill had met the Turkish leaders in Adana and had agreed to furnish them with the war material which they demanded. In January 1944 a British military mission arrived in Ankara for conversations with the Turkish staff. The stage was set for the grand entry. But again, Turkey drew back. This time the reason given was that Great Britain had failed to supply the armaments which she had promised. This was no doubt true; but the military situation had completely changed in twelve months, and Germany was no longer capable of mounting another major offensive. The Turks, however, were not convinced, and they pointed out that the Bulgarian Army had not yet been engaged. After five weeks of fruitless discussion, our military mission was withdrawn. A Turkish ship which was about to leave Port Said with war material for the Turks was ordered to discharge her cargo before sailing.
However much Turkey may have been justified in refusing to enter the war in 1940 and 1941, historians will, I think, decide that she made a political error in refusing to do so in 1944. Supported by the British Middle East Forces, she would not have been risking much in joining in the grand assault on Germany; and her gains might have been great.
It is interesting to speculate on what might have been the outcome of Turkey's participation. Bulgaria was no longer formidable. Indeed, a few months later she was asking for an armistice. The German Army in the Balkans was soon to be recalled, to protect the Reich. Thus, it is not improbable that an Anglo-Turkish army would have reached Sofia, and perhaps Belgrade, before the Russians did. Had that occurred, who can doubt that the position in the Balkans would have been fundamentally different today?
I think this ignores the risk of a German bombardment of Turkey, but still, WI the decision had been made to join the Allies in the first quarter of 1944?
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