1944: The Southeastern Front

http://www.jstor.org/stable/3017044?seq=8

The third occasion when Turkey was expected to enter the war was in 1944. Twelve months before, Mr. Churchill had met the Turkish leaders in Adana and had agreed to furnish them with the war material which they demanded. In January 1944 a British military mission arrived in Ankara for conversations with the Turkish staff. The stage was set for the grand entry. But again, Turkey drew back. This time the reason given was that Great Britain had failed to supply the armaments which she had promised. This was no doubt true; but the military situation had completely changed in twelve months, and Germany was no longer capable of mounting another major offensive. The Turks, however, were not convinced, and they pointed out that the Bulgarian Army had not yet been engaged. After five weeks of fruitless discussion, our military mission was withdrawn. A Turkish ship which was about to leave Port Said with war material for the Turks was ordered to discharge her cargo before sailing.
However much Turkey may have been justified in refusing to enter the war in 1940 and 1941, historians will, I think, decide that she made a political error in refusing to do so in 1944. Supported by the British Middle East Forces, she would not have been risking much in joining in the grand assault on Germany; and her gains might have been great.
It is interesting to speculate on what might have been the outcome of Turkey's participation. Bulgaria was no longer formidable. Indeed, a few months later she was asking for an armistice. The German Army in the Balkans was soon to be recalled, to protect the Reich. Thus, it is not improbable that an Anglo-Turkish army would have reached Sofia, and perhaps Belgrade, before the Russians did. Had that occurred, who can doubt that the position in the Balkans would have been fundamentally different today?
I think this ignores the risk of a German bombardment of Turkey, but still, WI the decision had been made to join the Allies in the first quarter of 1944?
 
The Turks would have been more of a liability than an advantage. The Turkish Army whilst brave was outdated and would have required a lot of allied support to get it up to speed. Also whilst an invasion of Bulgaria is feasible, it's much more likely that the Russophile Bulgarians would direct all their energies against the allies whilst the Soviets marched in.
 
the turks had almost zero air defense, so unless fighter squadrons where going to be freed up from other missions they where never going to play while Germany had some ability to bomb their cities... it should also be noted that such a war wouldn't have been particularly popular in the turkish army which held the Germans with great respect... even if they beat up Bulgaria... so what, their army wasn't very manueverable and would have a hard time treking though the mountains that would seperate their immediate objectives from more distance ones
 
North Bulgaria and South Bulgaria, if the Turks made immediate territorial gains but cannot cross the mountains and thus the Soviets occupy most of the country?

Also, if the Bulgarian Muslim population is particularly concentrated geographically (in the SE part of the country, for example), could territory from Bulgaria be annexed to Turkey-in-Europe?
 

Markus

Banned
The Turks would have been more of a liability than an advantage. The Turkish Army whilst brave was outdated and would have required a lot of allied support to get it up to speed. Also whilst an invasion of Bulgaria is feasible, it's much more likely that the Russophile Bulgarians would direct all their energies against the allies whilst the Soviets marched in.

Good point and I think the Romanians, Hungarians and Serbs would be equally non-thrilled about the prospect of yet another invasion by the Turks.
 
Good point and I think the Romanians, Hungarians and Serbs would be equally non-thrilled about the prospect of yet another invasion by the Turks.

The Romanians and Hungarians would prefer them to the Soviets and the Serbs, given their situation, would accept anyone who would drive out the Germans. Besides, Turkey had been an ally to Romania and Yugoslavia before the war. I can think of a lot of people in Bucharest and Budapest hoping that the Janissaries reach their cities before the Cossacks. As for Bulgaria, the government would realize that fighting the Turks simply opens the way for the Red Army to depose it.

Poland didn't get any bonus hit points against Germany and the Balkans won't get any bonus hit points against Turkey. Or seek them.

I expect Turkey to get some of the Dodecanese after the war.
 
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Most likely Turkey would prefer part of Bulgaria, so close to Istanbul, over some of the Dodecanese. The main effect is that this likely propels Bulgaria and Albania in to the Western camp and makes Stalin more appreciative of a neutral Yugoslavia but does he seek compensation elsewhere?
 
the turks had almost zero air defense, so unless fighter squadrons where going to be freed up from other missions they where never going to play while Germany had some ability to bomb their cities... it should also be noted that such a war wouldn't have been particularly popular in the turkish army which held the Germans with great respect... even if they beat up Bulgaria... so what, their army wasn't very manueverable and would have a hard time treking though the mountains that would seperate their immediate objectives from more distance ones

Depending on when in 1944 Turkey enters, Germany either has no ability to contest air control outside of the Reich itself, or no ability to contest control of the air anywhere, at all. And the general ongoing collapse of the Eastern front means that Turkey's outdated military really is at no risk.

Just what it would achieve is another question. If it were 1943, then Turkey joining the Allies would do critical damage to German industry by cutting off next to all supplies of chromium and molybdenum and most nickel as well, even if absolutely nothing else is made of it, not bombing of Ploesti, nothing. By mid 44, though, German industry and transportation were in such shambles already that resource shortages were really the least of their worries. And I also have significant doubts that any WAllied conquests in the Balkans will really change the post war allocation of spheres of influence, which were after all, determined politically without much concern to facts on the ground. Maybe the Soviets not getting to purge the non-communists in the Balkans will make their hold more tenuous during the Cold War, but then, maybe not.
 

Cook

Banned
Why would Turkey want to get onto the field instead of standing on the sidelines with Pom-poms and Lemonade?
What possible reason would they have to justify sending their young men off to get killed?
 
Why would Turkey want to get onto the field instead of standing on the sidelines with Pom-poms and Lemonade?
What possible reason would they have to justify sending their young men off to get killed?

What reason did Brazil have, or Mexico? Oh, they probably wouldn't want to go all out into total mobilization, but there are always benefits to joining the winning side of a war, particularly for a nation that has helped out the losing side just a bit too much for comfort, or a poorer nation hoping to improve relations and the odds of investment and alliance with the big boys.
 
Why would Turkey want to get onto the field instead of standing on the sidelines with Pom-poms and Lemonade?
What possible reason would they have to justify sending their young men off to get killed?

Keeping Muslim Bulgarians safe from the godless Communists bearing down on them via a pre-emptive invasion?

Getting sweet, sweet foreign aid from the Allies?

Heck, what reason did WE have to send our young men off to be killed? We're even farther away geographically from the Mustachioed Evil One than the Turks were.
 
I thought most people were aware of Japan's attack at Pearl Harbor and many other locations or Hitler's declaration of war against the US by now.:rolleyes:
 
Ottoman Empire restored, Turkey gives up on all this secularist nonsense, Neo-Ottoman demands that Britain and France withdraw from Syria and the Levant are met as the price for Ottoman co-operation, Iraq long prome to coups and other unrest under their British imported king falls into anarchy once more the Ottoman Army is forced to restore order and the former provinces are brought back to the fold. In an act of blind stupidity the Saudi King declares war on the Ottomans to drive them out of Arab land (maybe he has dreams of craving out his own empire or whatever) Saudi gets its army raped, lands annexed. Egypt along with Libya become protectorates of the Ottoman Empire along with the smaller Middle Eastern states once the British withdraw from those areas. Lots of oil is found the empire is crazy rich In petro-dollars.

Lastly the soul of AHP is now at rest. His long quest to restore Ottoman glory in ATL forms is now complete.;)
 
Because German U-boats were sinking Brazilian Shipping in Brazilian waters for a start.

Not to mention that they were both firmly inside the US sphere of influence and liked to keep them happy, especially when you're a fascist dictator yourself.
 
The Romanians and Hungarians would prefer them to the Soviets and the Serbs, given their situation, would accept anyone who would drive out the Germans.

That's true but the Turks need to get through Bulgaria or Greece first, not an easy task.

As for Bulgaria, the government would realize that fighting the Turks simply opens the way for the Red Army to depose it.

The Bulgarians weren't at war with the Soviets however they would be at war with Turkey and would also be more likely to see them as the greater evil.

Poland didn't get any bonus hit points against Germany and the Balkans won't get any bonus hit points against Turkey. Or seek them.

Well they did gain all territory up to the Oder-Neisse Line.
 
That's true but the Turks need to get through Bulgaria or Greece first, not an easy task.

Not an impossible one either. Germany's allies are unreliable, meaning it will need to make a military effort to hold the Turks.

The Bulgarians weren't at war with the Soviets however they would be at war with Turkey and would also be more likely to see them as the greater evil.
The Bulgarian government knew that the Soviet Union would enter its territory as soon as it could. It also knew that Stalin would seek to overthrow it, which makes Turkey the lesser evil. Bulgaria will fight about as well as Italy did.

Well they did gain all territory up to the Oder-Neisse Line.
What's that got to do with it? I'm saying that the Balkan states won't suddenly grow an extra set of motorized brigades just 'cause they're fighting against the "ancient enemy". I'm also saying that the governments of Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria will prefer Turkish to Soviet invasion, being able to guess the potential consequences of the latter, and I'm saying this based on their own secret diplomacy while members of the Axis.
 
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Because German U-boats were sinking Brazilian Shipping in Brazilian waters for a start.

Oh please, maybe you can make that argument for Mexico, but Brazil joined because it saw which way the wind was blowing. The same for Italy and the other minor Axis switching sides towards the end, same for all the minor Allies that contributed little but the war declaration and their natural resources, and the same here for Turkey.
 
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