1943 Axis forces don't reinforce Tunisia, saves 6th army?

[Deleted member 1487]

Basically this says 'no matter how many troops the germans have it won't be enough' they were not ubermensch super fighters, but normal men and they could not accomplish miracles.

The author is being overly dramatic; I posted that to show a TL of events so we have an idea what we are working with ITTL.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Wintergewitter

Looking at the numbers involved the Germans were heavily outnumbered, yet they managed to get more than half of the way there, despite major delays. With the forces used in OTL in Tunisia, plus the 1st SS the numbers are roughly equal. Not only that, but there are other options, such as the one that Blair mentioned, which is an attack from another direction to pull the Soviet's attention away from the main axis of advance and make their job easier, while not putting more strain on the logistics of Winter Storm. Also the operation could jump off earlier if Blair's scenario where Fallschirmjäger seize the forward rail hub for the advance, making things much easier to set up.

Plus how quickly did the AAA rings get set up around Stalingrad? And bombers can be based further away were logistics aren't so strained and still operate in support of the attacks, including in support of the 1st SS if they launch a diversion for Winter Storm.

 

[sharlin]

An attack from what direction with what? The germans had no forces to use, if you're using the non torch forces to help Winterstorm what are you going to attack elsewhere with in the teeth of a horrificly cold winter against an enemy that outnumbers you.

I suppose you could use Axis satellite nations, but given their recent track record i'd not use them myself.

 

[BlairWitch749]

An attack from what direction with what? The germans had no forces to use, if you're using the non torch forces to help Winterstorm what are you going to attack elsewhere with in the teeth of a horrificly cold winter against an enemy that outnumbers you.

I suppose you could use Axis satellite nations, but given their recent track record i'd not use them myself.

Out of the Chir bridgehead to the north of Raus' spearpoint with the LW field division (number escapes me at the moment) the fresh heer division (i think the 336th) and the full strength 11th panzer division under balck

in OTL Balck fought a brilliant delaying action that allowed Raus to even attack at all, but was forced due to overwhelming numbers to withdraw (inspite of gutting 3 soviet tank corps)... reinforce Balck with the 1st ss and their tiger tanks (plus more aircraft to report enemy positions/movement) and he may not just be hopelessly on the defensive and instead be able to open up an actual diversionary offensive towards the pocket from the north, reducing pressure on Raus and perhaps panicking Stalin into canceling little saturn


one formation that could easily be added to raus' winter storm attack in our scenario is the 16th motorized at elista, less than 100 miles from the assembly areas... in otl this formation wasn't used because the lw was too overstreched to recon the area north and south of elista to see if the division could be withdrawn without total risk to the communications with army group a... with more airpower committed right away, this decision can be made almost immediately giving Raus a full strength motorized division to stiffen his attack (one that hadn't fired it's guns in three months)

 

[Julian]

What reserves, or forces originally committed to Little Saturn, could the Soviets have deployed to counter a stronger German advance than OTL?

 

[BlairWitch749]

What reserves, or forces originally committed to Little Saturn, could the Soviets have deployed to counter a stronger German advance than OTL?

1st and 3rd guards army

those two would suffer some transit issues, shifting north to stage for saturn, then having to shift south to combat the chir and maybe the aksay attacks; possibly allowing a reinforced raus to reach the pocket and push the supply tail through before he could be stopped (especially if a less crippled/starved 6th army attacks to the west to meet his tank battalions)

then the soviets from ring, saturn, and survivors of winter storm would pounce in a gigantic attempt to overwhelm the rear guards before they and AGA could retire to Rostov, restore their supply lines and adopt more conventional divisional spacing

this is where the 2nd wave arrival of the HG panzer, 10th panzer and the 2 additional SS divisions comes in (perhaps also getting 7th and 13th panzer, and panzer wiking north a bit faster than otl)... those 4 formations would bring 400-500 tanks and assault guns with them (including a number of tigers) which if deployed in time should be able to shield the winter storm and 6th army forces as they withdraw and try to catch their breath

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Out of the Chir bridgehead to the north of Raus' spearpoint with the LW field division (number escapes me at the moment) the fresh heer division (i think the 336th) and the full strength 11th panzer division under balck

in OTL Balck fought a brilliant delaying action that allowed Raus to even attack at all, but was forced due to overwhelming numbers to withdraw (inspite of gutting 3 soviet tank corps)... reinforce Balck with the 1st ss and their tiger tanks (plus more aircraft to report enemy positions/movement) and he may not just be hopelessly on the defensive and instead be able to open up an actual diversionary offensive towards the pocket from the north, reducing pressure on Raus and perhaps panicking Stalin into canceling little saturn


one formation that could easily be added to raus' winter storm attack in our scenario is the 16th motorized at elista, less than 100 miles from the assembly areas... in otl this formation wasn't used because the lw was too overstreched to recon the area north and south of elista to see if the division could be withdrawn without total risk to the communications with army group a... with more airpower committed right away, this decision can be made almost immediately giving Raus a full strength motorized division to stiffen his attack (one that hadn't fired it's guns in three months)

To help make this suggestion visually clear:

Location Elista:

 

[BlairWitch749]

thank you for the maps comrade; they do help

it boils down to this, with all the assets committed to torch and anton; along with 16th motorized being released at the start of the crises, the germans could (if the proper tactical decisions were made) break a supply tail through and evacuate the 6th army; although the operation would be frought with a number of very large risks including the total destruction of 6th, don and A armies due to the extension of german striking power

this must also involve 6th army actually executing thunderclap and attacking to the west... i think the increased supply and evac of the wounded would make paulus more prone to cooperate; as his army will actually be able to move it's tanks/have ammo for a big attack AND he will not be burdened with 10's of thousands of wounded whom he couldn't take with him; and would be leaving to their deaths in russian captivity; instead the great majority of his wounded will be flown out of the pocket, and will have been partially replaced with fresh infantry

 

[phx1138]

At this point in the war, the Germans still had about a 2:1 advantage in effectiveness over the Sovs: that is, 100 Germans were about as effective as 200 Sovs (maybe more, I don't have the numbers in front of me). Not "supermen", just better doctrine & training.

What was needed at Stalingrad wasn't more Ju-52s, it was Hitler not being a lunatic (ASB) & von Paulus not being an idiot (almost ASB, by all accounts, since he obeyed such a stupid order).

 

[ObssesedNuker]

Even if the Germans somehow get the 6th Army out, it will have still been attrited into uselessness and they would have still lost Stalingrad. Furthermore, they would also still need to abandon the Caucausus before the Soviets shift their forces and come down on Riga, slicing that entire wing off. And that assumes that the Germans somehow manage too make it through the 2nd Guards and 5th Shock Army and the Soviet armies encircling the 6th Army itself. In any case, the additional ground forces would be too late to be properly used in the offensive even if not diverted for Torch. A number of the forces that did show up almost missed the start date as it was!

 

[Animal Mother]

i think the increased supply and evac of the wounded would make paulus more prone to cooperate; as his army will actually be able to move it's tanks/have ammo for a big attack AND he will not be burdened with 10's of thousands of wounded whom he couldn't take with him; and would be leaving to their deaths in russian captivity; instead the great majority of his wounded will be flown out of the pocket, and will have been partially replaced with fresh infantry

Flying in additional infantry is only going to exacerbate the already horrible supply situation, Sixth Army was starving...flying in 150 lbs of rations will be much more effective than flying in a 150 lb German paratroop that will have to be fed, supplied, and whatnot. That isn't to say that certain specialists wouldn't be helpful (Otto Skorzeny perhaps). What might be most helpful would be the replacement of Paulus with a commander who would be more willing to take the initative and attempt a breakout. Walther Kurt von Seydlitz-Kurzbach might be a good replacement, he wanted to breakout, had broken the earlier Soviet encirclement at Demyansk, and seemed to be capable commander. Regardless it will be a very difficult task to pull off.

 

[BlairWitch749]

Even if the Germans somehow get the 6th Army out, it will have still been attrited into uselessness and they would have still lost Stalingrad. Furthermore, they would also still need to abandon the Caucausus before the Soviets shift their forces and come down on Riga, slicing that entire wing off. And that assumes that the Germans somehow manage too make it through the 2nd Guards and 5th Shock Army and the Soviet armies encircling the 6th Army itself. In any case, the additional ground forces would be too late to be properly used in the offensive even if not diverted for Torch. A number of the forces that did show up almost missed the start date as it was!

they missed the jump off because they got sucked into operation anton, no torch means no anton... so the liebstandarte can go to russia immediately alongside the 6th panzer... liebstandarte was already at full strength and on alert for immediately deployment as it was

 

[BlairWitch749]

Flying in additional infantry is only going to exacerbate the already horrible supply situation, Sixth Army was starving...flying in 150 lbs of rations will be much more effective than flying in a 150 lb German paratroop that will have to be fed, supplied, and whatnot. That isn't to say that certain specialists wouldn't be helpful (Otto Skorzeny perhaps). What might be most helpful would be the replacement of Paulus with a commander who would be more willing to take the initative and attempt a breakout. Walther Kurt von Seydlitz-Kurzbach might be a good replacement, he wanted to breakout, had broken the earlier Soviet encirclement at Demyansk, and seemed to be capable commander. Regardless it will be a very difficult task to pull off.

the starving was due to inadequate airlift; my proposed scenario makes the airlift more effective

and the infantry are coming in to replace wounded soldiers, not actually increase the size of the sixth army's ration count... a fighting soldier is a better use of food for the 6th army than a man with a bullet in his torso; so the wounded get flown out on the outbound flights

Paulus had an impossible decision to make... his armor and artillery were immobilized due to lack of fuel/parts/inadequate air lift AND he had 10's of thousands of wounded he would be forced to leave behind, even if thunderclap worked... it's not an easy decision to abandon 1/3 of your army to certain death in russian captivity and attack with inadequate means with the rest for an attack with a low potential chance of success

the better airlift due to no torch means his army is better supplied and the wounded are largely evacuated from the pocket, so the decision wouldn't be as agonizing; plus with the stronger winter storm, operation ring forces will be pulled off paulus front, reducing pressure on him, allowing him to at least partially mass his tanks and try to break out (using whatever fresh infantry he gets as the spearpoint)

 

[ivanotter]

It is a most interesting topic.

If we look at the timing, it becomes even more interesting:

8 November: Torch landings
12 November: airlift into Tunisia
19 November: Operation Uranus
12 December Operation Wintergewitter
16 December: Operation Little Saturn

If we use 16 December as the cut-off date where there is no return, then there would only have been a month to re-supply 6th army in Stalingrad.

Would that have been possible at all?

Anything later in December or even in January is not working.

Flying more combat troops into Stalingrad (with equipment, food, ammo, heavy weapons, etc) can be an option, but the attrition rate (flak and Soviet figthers) would still take its toll. How much would that amount to?

The better option would probably have been to have Paulus retreat in November where the Tunisia re-inforcements were used by Manstein to link up with Paulus.

It also leaves the Rumanians and the Italians some hope.


After the encirclement, it was becoming rather hopeless.

Ivan

 

[ObssesedNuker]

they missed the jump off because they got sucked into operation anton, no torch means no anton...

Nonsense. Anton was practically completed by before Operation Uranus had even began, much less the planning for the relevant rescue operation for the 6th Army began, and with another few days likely passing before the relevant transfer orders came down. Any delay that came from Anton would be, at best, barely noticeable.