Since I have a lot of different projects going on i wont be able to write much in here. I did however have this idea.
Victory should be categorized into 4 different victories and defeat into 4 different defeats.
Complete victory
Strategic victory
Tactical victory
Pyhrric victory
and
Pyhrric defeat
Tactical defeat
Strategic defeat
Complete defeat
Main issue Hitler et al had was going for a complete victory when it was far out of any realistic reach.
On the other hand, had Germany aimed for a Strategic victory (lebensraum, resources, increased prestige, military dominance) or tactical (unified Germany + national areas) or even a Pyhrric victory (pre-1936 Germany) they might have had a shot.
One scenario I've been thinking about is this.
1943-01-01, Hitler has one of his rare moments of clarity, sets out a clear "hold this area as a minimum, let the generals decide how, I'll go to the mountains to relax". This results in a situation where German high command is in the hands of the generals and Hitlers meddling is only in the very broad sense and no individual orders.
Troops are ordered to hold and dig in on the Dnieper river to Kiev, and north to Oisha, from there to close to the present Estonian border. Area east of the front is depopulated and scorched for as far as artillery range. Turned into an elastic defense area rooted in the river as its western range. Combining both defense in depth and elastic defense to form a strong depth-elastic defense.
Following this E-Europe is cleared of anyone deemed undesirable by the nazis and the women, children, sick, elderly are deported over the river to the Russian side to create a food shortage. The young men are sent to forced labor prison camps.
Germany and Axis minors receive pioneer attachments from Finland during summer 43 that specialize in building cheap durable winter housing from dirt and wood, both Korsus and Saunas, for quick to build winter lodging as well as infection control. Germany attempts to dig in and entrench themselves and simply carry on as if the war in the east is effectively a victory. Without costly assaults, with good winter lodgings and the entire summer to build strong entrenchments the Germans are in very good positions for the winter during which soviet units will again and again throw themselves against very well prepared German defense positions, the limited success the soviets have is countered by mobile panzer armies in reserve that are not spent pointlessly attacking. Fuel is reserved as much as possible and only spent when necessary.
This would be the reverse of the Kursk salient, the Germans would no longer seek to advance, only bleed the soviets dry. Constantly offering Stalin a generous peace treaty. The reserve units otherwise used and spent pointlessly attacking would be deployed to fortress Europe. Bomber production would decrease as conquests are done and interceptor production would increase substantially.
As i see this situation the following would happen.
Stalin would sue for peace since most of the territory occupied is minor soviets and not Russian. Stalin would seek to rebuild his army and potentially re-DW since he knows western powers would not accept peace. Or potentially join in the splitting of Japan to reclaim lost territory.
Churchill would find his position very very precarious. UK is mostly unharmed, gained more territory (Italian Africa) and an increasingly bankrupt and fighting an unpopular war that the other side considers over.
US would focus efforts on taking out Japan, Germany would phase out support for Japan in favor of peaceable relations with the allies.
Japan surrenders 1944 after SU invasion of Manchuria, US invasion of okinawa, UK clearing of Burma and cessation of German relations.
Post war world would be:
UK with an expanded empire (Italian Africa, former Japanese SE-asian countries and allies where applicable)
Italy with a slightly greater European empire (French med islands, Corsica, Yugoslavian coastline. Greek islands and crete)
Germany that annexes Alsace-Lorraine, Benelux German areas, most of E-Europe is split between minor axis puppet states ala "central polish gov" Stronger than Maginot fortifications built on the east line, then secondary and tertiary divisions are demobilized, weapons are sold to axis minors and puppets. Vichy France is given all of former French mainland short of the previously mentioned area.
SU with all of its major industrial areas intact, most of its population intact, facing a very well entrenched Germany on its western front, cold war would develop.
Soon a three party cold war would develop. Stalins death would cause friction but no civil war, neither would Hitlers.
War officially over in mid to late 1944.
Thoughts?