1941 US or Soviet Union better prepared for surpise attac

Wi Stalin had paid better attention to the intelligence that was there of the Nazi plan

Or better intelligence analysis had allowed Roosevelt to realize Japan's plans for December 1941.

Which make a bigger difference to WW2 and later events
 
Stalin being more prepared for the Germans has way more effect on the war than the US being more prepared for Pearl Harbour, because even if the US had been prepared, they'd only have done a little more damage to the Japanese and kept a few more of their battleships, but since the newest battleship there was commissioned in 1923 and none had a top speed of more than about 21 knots...
 
The US being aware of Japanese plans of attack has lots more impact than what happens at Pearl Harbor. It allows the US to be better prepared everywhere. Wake Island could be held, and the Philippines could be better defended. Since the US would pass on such knowledge to the British and Dutch, it means the entire Allied war effort in the Pacific would be better coordinated.

It really depends on how much advance notice the US receives. It's the difference between merely putting MacArthur, Kimmel, and Short on alert 24 hours beforehand versus a coordinarted Allied plan starting a week earlier versus major operational changes and reinforcements a month earlier.

Since the great success of Japan's initial offensive was based entirely on strategic surprise against unprepared opponents, eliminating both the surprise and the Allied unpreparedness greatly changes how the Pacific War unfolds for the first six months.
 

amphibulous

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Stalin being more prepared for the Germans has way more effect on the war than the US being more prepared for Pearl Harbour, because even if the US had been prepared, they'd only have done a little more damage to the Japanese and kept a few more of their battleships, but since the newest battleship there was commissioned in 1923 and none had a top speed of more than about 21 knots...

You forget that the US might have ambushed the Japanese carrier fleet. Or at least severely attritted its pilots and aircraft - and the IJN had an insanely slow replacement rate for both. You could reasonably see an IJN that cancels offensive operations, leaving European empires in the area relatively untouched.
 
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The problem with SU being better prepared (i.e. forewarned) is Stalin's tendency to constantly order counterattacks, whether situation called for it or not.

Then again, with warning air force will be warned and not suffer such casualties so such counter attacks have a better chance of success as Soviets might actually know what (and where) they are facing and will have at least some air cover. Plus if LW has to chase Soviet air force they woun't be able to offer same level of ground support.
 
You forget that the US might have ambushed the Japanese carrier fleet. Or at least severely attritted its pilots and aircraft - and the IJN had an insanely slow replacement rate for both. You could reasonably see an IJN that cancels offensive operations, leaving European empires in the area relatively untouched.
Ambush is unlikely, the Japanese were quite careful with their approach, and would have turned back if they thought they'd been spotted.

I think it also counts on how much extra warning is given, in some cases (in some parts of the Pacific say) a mere week's might not be enough to have a significant effect on the outcome of various battles.
 
The problem with SU being better prepared (i.e. forewarned) is Stalin's tendency to constantly order counterattacks, whether situation called for it or not.

The war plans in place for the Red Army in June 1941 called for local and operational level counter attacks across the front. That was one of the problems in the border battles of the first week, too many generals tried to execute the orders they found in the HQ safe box.

Then again, with warning air force will be warned and not suffer such casualties so such counter attacks have a better chance of success as Soviets might actually know what (and where) they are facing and will have at least some air cover. Plus if LW has to chase Soviet air force they woun't be able to offer same level of ground support.

This is a important point. the devastation of the Red AF machines in the first days left the German with a even larger advantage. While the training and tactical/operational capability would still have been less than the Wehrmacht, the Germans will have more to contend with on the air and ground. That translates into higher German losses if nothing else. Consider: By August the Wehrmacht had suffered a bit over 400,000 casualties, and by the end of November just under 800,000 men killed/maimed/sick/captured. If in the opening days a alerted Red Army makes it 255 more effcient in killing Germans then by December we could expect 200,000 more losses of German soldiers. In OTL 800,000 men lost followed by the winter offensive nearly routed the Wehrmacht. Would 1,000,000 men lost reach the tipping point where a January rout becomes inevitable?
 
The thing the Soviets have to watch out for is the German emphasis on encirclement, pockets, and cutting off chunks of the enemy. If the Soviets have even 48 hour notice that's enough time for officers to confer and hopefully launch coordinated counter-attacks which are more difficult to catch in a panzerbag. Saving even one of the pockets caught up in the opening days of the invasion could have serious, long-term impact on the Eastern Front.
 
The thing the Soviets have to watch out for is the German emphasis on encirclement, pockets, and cutting off chunks of the enemy. If the Soviets have even 48 hour notice that's enough time for officers to confer and hopefully launch coordinated counter-attacks which are more difficult to catch in a panzerbag. Saving even one of the pockets caught up in the opening days of the invasion could have serious, long-term impact on the Eastern Front.

Except that early counter attacks had a nasty habit of being blown to pieces shortly by German army that temporary switched to defensive and then easily destroyed remains.
 
Except that early counter attacks had a nasty habit of being blown to pieces shortly by German army that temporary switched to defensive and then easily destroyed remains.

But these would be counter-attacks that would, at least in theory, not be charging headlong into German-dominated airspace and hopefully would be minding their flanks more than they did OTL. I'm not saying they would be able to save all of the main pockets but even avoiding one or two of the bigger ones would have some pretty big impact on how Barbarossa goes. It's possible with enough warning (more than the three hours that was poorly handed down they got anyway) you could get enough small changes to derail Typhoon completely.
 
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