1941 German British peace

Hard to see Churchill going for an offer like that.
What would the British gain from a treaty like that assuming they could trust the Germans.
 
Hard to see Churchill going for an offer like that.
What would the British gain from a treaty like that assuming they could trust the Germans.
I agree it's highly unlikely to happen with Churchill in power. What Britain would gain is the immediate end to the Battle of the Atlantic and the Blitz enabling them to earn the funds to rebuild the army and London. At best it would be a temporary peace until the Government feels the time is right to strike back. Where any potential peace falls down is that Germany knows this and would seek to impose terms Britain could not and would not accept.
 

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I agree it's highly unlikely to happen with Churchill in power. What Britain would gain is the immediate end to the Battle of the Atlantic and the Blitz enabling them to earn the funds to rebuild the army and London. At best it would be a temporary peace until the Government feels the time is right to strike back. Where any potential peace falls down is that Germany knows this and would seek to impose terms Britain could not and would not accept.
What if it was Halifax instead of Churchill
 
I agree it's highly unlikely to happen with Churchill in power. What Britain would gain is the immediate end to the Battle of the Atlantic and the Blitz enabling them to earn the funds to rebuild the army and London. At best it would be a temporary peace until the Government feels the time is right to strike back. Where any potential peace falls down is that Germany knows this and would seek to impose terms Britain could not and would not accept.

From a British point of view it looked like the Germans could win in the Soviet Union at the time.
If that happen that would leave Germany with all the resources of the Soviet Union. Now a food and resource blockade of Germany would not work.
Germany would be in a position to dictate trade terms in Europe without having to invade anyone. Thousand year Reich from the Rhine to the Urals with the British empire existing only at the pleasure of the 3rd Reich.
I suspect after the battle of Britain and the Blitz the British public would not accept such a deal. If the deal was done before the battle of Britain it would be a better deal for the British and easier to sell to the public.
I still cannot see Churchill taking it.

The reality the Soviet Union was much stronger than any one suspected at the time.
Germans do well at first but get bogged down in a long war in Soviets Union.

The Other problem is how this will affect any conflict with a Japan.

Germany might be in a positions to be pressure the British and Dutch to continue to supply Oil to Japan. This might nix the American Oil blockade on Japan.
This might mean that Japan does not fire the first shot a Pearl harbour.
FDR will have to try a lot harder to get a war with Japan past an isolationists congress.

I cannot see the Italians being happy with a deal with the British as it puts a stop to Italian dreams of an empire in north Africa and the middle east.
 
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What's in it, really, for the Germans?

A solemn commitment by the British that they won't interfere in the East? No more.

While for the British to even start considering the deal, the Germans have to vacate France, Belgium, Holland, Norway, Denmark and maybe more, as well as to recall the U-Boote.

OK, but then, who's to guarantee the British won't turn around, and, indeed, interfere, for instance by sending military aid to the Soviets? Who's to guarantee the German-friendly governments the Germans will try to leave in power in the Western countries won't be interfered with by the British, too?

The Germans will want concrete guarantees against this. Some measure of naval disarmament by the British. The possibility to interfere with any shipments by, welll, not giving up their air bases in Northern Norway. "Allied" German troops to help the French, Belgian etc. German-friendly governments to remain in the saddle. The two points above amount to not freeing the West. And it would probably be better for the Germans if U-Boote still waited out there.

In short, the Germans can't offer what the British will demand, and if they do, they will get no more than words on paper.
 
What if in early 1941 before the invasion of Soviet Russia Germany and Britain had made peace based on this article https://www.telegraph.co.uk/history...in-exchange-for-free-hand-to-attack-USSR.html

The British considered Hitler's word to be no better than Piss steam

The point of Maximum danger had passed for the British, the USA was increasingly on side and they were aware of the impending invasion of Russia

Maybe if the offer was seriously made in Late may/June 1940....perhaps then Parliament might have gone for it but even then regardless of who was PM I doubt it.
 
Assuming the Germans get what they want, peace with Britain.
Germany now has more men, aircraft tanks to invade Soviet union.
This in some way makes things worse for the Germans as they now have a larger army in Soviet Union to supply over bad roads and incompatible rail system.
If they advance further than they did OTL the Logistics problem only gets worse.
Germans get over extended in the Soviet Union and need to go on the defensive and end up in a war of attrition with the Soviets.
Soviets are more damaged than OTL and the Germans are gradual pushed back.
Worse case the Soviet get as far as the Rhine, but with the losses they have taken getting that far struggle to control an area that large.
 
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Deleted member 1487

Assuming the Germans get what they want, peace with Britain.
Germany now has more men, aircraft tanks to invade Soviet union.
This in some way makes things worse for the Germans as they now have a larger army in Soviet Union to supply over bad roads and incompatible rail system.
If they advance further than they did OTL the Logistics problem only gets worse.
Germans get over extended in the Soviet Union and need to go on the defensive and end up in a war of attraction with the Soviets.
Soviets are more damaged than OTL and the Germans are gradual pushed back.
Worse case the Soviet get as far as the Rhine, but with the losses they have taken getting that far struggle to control an area that large.
Making this assumption there are a few things to consider:
1) Germany/occupied Europe is no longer blockaded so can import a lot based on all the captured money/resources from occupied Europe and their colonies (the latter especially, as the DEI and Belgian Congo are a huge bounty of raw materials that Germany needs). That means they can get ready for the invasion of the USSR much more easily, especially without the fighting in the Mediterranean, which consumed a lot more resources than you'd think.
2) Strategic surprise is basically gone for the invasion of the USSR, so Stalin is more likely to actually prepare for the invasion than he was IOTL, because there is little to no reason to explain a military build up in Summer 1941 on their border.
3) The German public isn't going to want to go to war again once they've been at peace for several months, something even Hitler was apparently quite afraid of. Without engineering a border conflict that ramps up and gives the Soviets more time to mobilize and prepare, it would be hard to justify it to the public (see how long the ramp up to the invasion of Poland happened). That again means no strategic surprise, which alters to some degree a campaign in 1941 in the East.
4) There is no need for an invasion of the Balkans. A victorious Germany won't have to join in on Greece and Yugoslavia is much less likely to revolt if Britain isn't in the war. That eliminates the excuse Hitler used to Stalin to explain the build up for the invasion of the USSR that summer while also saving Germany a substantial lot of resources, time, and wear and tear on equipment not to mention casualties in the process.

So both the Soviets and Germans will benefit if there is even an invasion of the USSR ITTL. I think there is an argument that Germany plays nice for a while, which ultimately kills an invasion of the USSR, because they have an empire to digest and new peacetime order to create in Europe that includes integrating the economies of the continent and their empires into their new 'European Union'. That said if there is an invasion the logistics issues are probably going to be significantly less severe even with more forces thanks to the ability to import freely and having many more trucks and other resources to throw at the problem. Plus with the Soviets knowing something is up the major fighting might happen closer to the border rather than deeper in the USSR, which means the hardest part of the fighting could well happen closer to the Axis logistical centers ITTL. Granted that is a fair bit of 'what if' that isn't guaranteed, but there is a lot of food for thought.
 
Germany/occupied Europe is no longer blockaded so can import a lot based on all the captured money/resources from occupied Europe and their colonies (the latter especially, as the DEI and Belgian Congo are a huge bounty of raw materials that Germany needs).

Germany disavowed any claim or authority over the European colonies, at least in the Far East? maybe a mistaken ploy to get Japan into the war a year earlier? (than historical)

my speculation they could have made a deal with France in 1941, with the cynical plan of having the "weaker" Low Countries pay, how much heart would UK and US have to continue a war to restore Dutch monarch?
 
4) There is no need for an invasion of the Balkans. A victorious Germany won't have to join in on Greece and Yugoslavia is much less likely to revolt if Britain isn't in the war.

You make good points I generally agree with, but the OP apparently wants the POD to be with the lone flight of Hess - Greece has fallen already.
Naturally, Hess might decide to go earlier, but one would need to research what made him decide at that time, and not earlier, in OTL.
 

Deleted member 1487

You make good points I generally agree with, but the OP apparently wants the POD to be with the lone flight of Hess - Greece has fallen already.
Naturally, Hess might decide to go earlier, but one would need to research what made him decide at that time, and not earlier, in OTL.
Gotcha. In that case I don't know how with that POD you get peace in May 1941. Britain has every incentive to wait out the results of the German invasion of Russia if they know it's coming. Free ally and diverted German attention.
 
The British considered Hitler's word to be no better than Piss steam

The point of Maximum danger had passed for the British, the USA was increasingly on side and they were aware of the impending invasion of Russia

Maybe if the offer was seriously made in Late may/June 1940....perhaps then Parliament might have gone for it but even then regardless of who was PM I doubt it.

indeed.
Late May/June 1940 would be a better time for a deal like that.
 
indeed.
Late May/June 1940 would be a better time for a deal like that.

Yeah, but we're back to the contents problem. What's in it for the Germans? If there is enough to make the Germans feel satisfied and safe, then there isn't enough for the British. And that's the best case. The worst case for the Germans is that the British say OK, then husband their resources without being under pressure, rearm, reorganize, plan, and wait for the right moment to renew the hostilities (i.e. once the Germans are thigh-deep in Russian snow or mud). The Napoleonic Wars were not without intermission, yet England remained Napoleon's enemy throughout.
 

Deleted member 94680

Hard to see Churchill going for an offer like that.

It’s not just Churchill, Britain is a parliamentary democracy. The Prime Minister would have to get Cabinet, then Parliament and then the Monarch to agree. If it’s hard to see the arch-interventionist Churchill (‘hard’ undersells the ASB this would be) agreeing, I definitely can’t see a majority of Parliament agreeing.

What if it was Halifax instead of Churchill?

Everything above with knobs on.

Only way it would be Halifax instead of Churchill, is if Halifax won out in the Cabinet Crisis of May ‘40.
Therefore we’re saying Halifax becomes PM just to surrender? Hess arrives May 10th, the Crisis is May 26th-28th, so Halifax is PM by 3rd of June or so? So we’re saying Halifax’s first order of business as PM with a War Cabinet is to pack it all in? I severely doubt this would go down well with a 25 man cabinet that OTL unanimously backed Churchill.
 
The Late May, early June peace is the most interesting, probably the most possible:

Such peace would include also the French (still in), and the Italians are not in, meaning mitigated armistice terms for the French and/or going straight to final peace terms. A June 1st armistice might be along the lines of:

Armistice is Front lines status quo (Paris remains French), but the British are to evacuate (peacefully leaving heavy equipment behind) the Dunkirk pocket, and the French are forced to give up Metz, Strasbourg and the key Maginot forts (without demolitions and leaving supplies intact). French to give up various other supplies (fuel, food stuffs, rail equipment) and stop armaments production until a final peace, German armistice commissions allowed in Paris, Lyon, Toulouse, Bordeaux, but not in colonies. Final peace would be 1914 boundaries (but no return of colonies).

A July peace gets harder, Britain already has made the decision to fight, and attacked the French fleet, Italy is in and will want stuff. Some POD is needed where the Germans have fixed their torpedo losses or have some aircraft not available OTL and the British feel more vulnerable, it might help if Italy did something early other than get her submarines sunk.

Post September 40, the Battle of Britain is won, its not possible, people have died in bombings, the Italians are into British colonies, will expect to keep stuff.

In a no Barbarossa scenario, late July 1941, German airpower is beginning to concentrate in Crete and Sicily, interdicting Tobruk and Malta, the war seems like it could last for years, the Japanese are threatening, perhaps the British might think of peace again (however the Atlantic really is no longer in danger after the Winter of 40-41, British air defenses are becoming more stout and taking a toll of German night bombers, Syria and Iraq are handled, Italian East Africa occupied, so reaching terms acceptable to all parties might be hard).
 
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