1941-42 Marshal Winter Demoted

Assume that the Winter of 1941-1942 is of an average sort and duration instead of much colder and longer than usual. How does this effect WWII?

If this needs to be moved tell me
 
The Germans may well encircle Moscow, and the Red Army would probably suffer badly for trying to break the encirclement. Moscow won't surrender if encircled, the Germans will have to fight street for street for it. Meanwhile, the Soviets will instead of launching their historic Winter 1941 counteroffensive, aim for clearing or at least being able to resupply the Capital.


Short of a full success in this effort, the Germans undoubtedly go for and gain a razed Moscow in 1942.


Like the Chinese in their fight against Japan, the Russian People understand that life under the Nazis would be hellish, filled with rape, medical experiments, slavery and untimely death. The Loss of Moscow, and perhaps even the loss of Stalin himself, might lead to compromises on the edges; the Russian people will beg the West for aid, perhaps even troops. It may be possible to sue for terms with Finland. Ultimately, though, they're going to fight as best they can.


Many more people will die in the East, but if the Chinese can hold on without their capitols and without major industry by a sheer hatred of the Japanese alone, so can the Soviets. WWII ends, though, as Germany recognizes that the Allies can utterly destroy their cities with single weapons.


WWII is longer, more bloody, and has cost millions more of lives. The Soviet Union may well collapse, it certainly is in no position to reject American aid to rebuild.
 

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The Germans may well encircle Moscow, and the Red Army would probably suffer badly for trying to break the encirclement. Moscow won't surrender if encircled, the Germans will have to fight street for street for it. Meanwhile, the Soviets will instead of launching their historic Winter 1941 counteroffensive, aim for clearing or at least being able to resupply the Capital.


Short of a full success in this effort, the Germans undoubtedly go for and gain a razed Moscow in 1942.


Like the Chinese in their fight against Japan, the Russian People understand that life under the Nazis would be hellish, filled with rape, medical experiments, slavery and untimely death. The Loss of Moscow, and perhaps even the loss of Stalin himself, might lead to compromises on the edges; the Russian people will beg the West for aid, perhaps even troops. It may be possible to sue for terms with Finland. Ultimately, though, they're going to fight as best they can.


Many more people will die in the East, but if the Chinese can hold on without their capitols and without major industry by a sheer hatred of the Japanese alone, so can the Soviets. WWII ends, though, as Germany recognizes that the Allies can utterly destroy their cities with single weapons.


WWII is longer, more bloody, and has cost millions more of lives. The Soviet Union may well collapse, it certainly is in no position to reject American aid to rebuild.
1. Without the extremely harsh and early winter of 41 the Germans would have conquered Moscow and probably even Leningrad - a Soviet counter offensive - should the USSR not have collapsed by that time- would have pushed the Germans back to a OTL December 41 front line. Best scenario.That means Moscow is conquered in the Summer of 42 at the latest - while at the same time Stalingrad falls because Soviet forces had been split up to protect bouth cities.That means disaster for the USSR which will likely lead to a defeat/surrender - or at least a stalemate.2. Your talking about the same Russian people that fought with the Germans even in 43/44? Hundreds of thousands of Soviet soliders volunteered to fight against the Communists - and when the Red army advanced in 43/44 Millions of people fled west with the Germans.And the Chinese didnt much fight with the Japs - they were too occupied fighting each other. China was also just too big and densly populated for the Japs to conquer and even in 44 - when they were fighting on all fronts their offensive in China nearly managed to collapse all resistance.
 
Like the Chinese in their fight against Japan, the Russian People understand that life under the Nazis would be hellish, filled with rape, medical experiments, slavery and untimely death.

First of all this is a hindsight though, many of the things only came out after the war. But most important...how does it differ from life under stalin which is hellish, filled with rape, slavery, famine and untimely death.
 
Not at all sure a milder winter would do much except reduce German casualties due to the weather.

The real damage to the advance was done by the mud, not the snow - inded, might a milder winter not extend that period, resulting ion even more problems for the Germans?
 
The Germans may well encircle Moscow, and the Red Army would probably suffer badly for trying to break the encirclement. Moscow won't surrender if encircled, the Germans will have to fight street for street for it. Meanwhile, the Soviets will instead of launching their historic Winter 1941 counteroffensive, aim for clearing or at least being able to resupply the Capital.


Short of a full success in this effort, the Germans undoubtedly go for and gain a razed Moscow in 1942.

With the Germans overextended in this effort, such a counter attack will succeed and possibly be more successful than OTL.

Remember that 'normal' Russian winters are still a very harsh ordeal, you're going to need a ridiculously warm winter for German luck to improve.
 
So pretty much this does not change the Eastern Front too much. I figured as much while lying awake in bed but nice to see some confirmation
 
wouldn't a fall of moscow have a rather huge impact, since it was a major transportation hub, and, more importantly, almost everything of importance was planned by the bureaucrats in the city. Losing most of their planning capacity (at least short and medium term) will undoubtebly hamper the soviet effort, wouldn't it ?
 
the germans where exhausted by the time they reached 20 miles from Moscow (regardless of weather) their infantry divisions where down 30% or more in the still functioning divisions; many of the panzer divisions had less than 20 tanks left; ten's of thousands of horses necessary for towing the artillery had died from exhaustion. And the army simply couldn't supply that far forward without a multi week pause which allows the russians to bring up reinforcements, Guderian's spearheads where out of fuel even before winter came and locked them in place
 
the germans where exhausted by the time they reached 20 miles from Moscow (regardless of weather) their infantry divisions where down 30% or more in the still functioning divisions; many of the panzer divisions had less than 20 tanks left; ten's of thousands of horses necessary for towing the artillery had died from exhaustion. And the army simply couldn't supply that far forward without a multi week pause which allows the russians to bring up reinforcements, Guderian's spearheads where out of fuel even before winter came and locked them in place

Thank you BW749 for bringing up what no one else has. Mud is going to come, regardless. Even if Russia has one of the mildest and latest Falls and Winters in history, the fact is the conversion of rail lines from Russian to European gauge meant railheads could only be advanced into the Soviet heartland at a pace 80% slower than anywhere else in Europe.

Blitzkrieg reaches a point where supply depots can only take you so far before the supply formations are consuming 100% of their stores just to get to their utmost range. And this is only in the steppes. Not the heavy forests of Karelia, not the world's largest single marsh in Belarus, not the Arctic Swamps of the Kola Peninsula.

When the bad weather starts, railroad conversion STOPS. It simply can't be done when the ground turns to heavy mud, and then freezes into the consistency of rock. And when the temperatures REALLY drop, the rail workers start freezing to death. Slave workers will die within minutes exposed to such conditions.:( A later Mud and Winter may advance those railheads about 120 miles or so (assuming Mud holds off for five more weeks, any more than that is really ASB), but that may be worse than OTL.

Hitler had already ordered a siege for Leningrad, he wasn't about to storm the city with the Finns being so unenthusiastic. As to Moscow? I foresee a bloodbath, fighting house-to-house in a rat war, just like Stalingrad but many times worse. Because at Moscow in '41, they are expecting the thrust at their capitol (as they did in '42, while the Germans went elsewhere). They are also more ready with a reserve force for a counter-offensive (the Siberian Army).

Encirclement of the city is out of the question. As OTL, the Germans will be fighting at the end of their tether. Just not in such an extreme sense. The end result? A line about halfway between OTL battlelines at the end of Spring Mud '42 Moscow.

Why are so many people talking about the Germans going for Round 2 for Moscow? THis is Hitler's Mind we're talking about. The bastard that was Case: Blue was Hitler's brainchild. Moscow ITTL would serve as an even greater distraction for the Soviets than OTL. And the logistical difficulties in the south will also be somewhat lessened. The difficulties were much worse in terms of rail conversion advancement in the South, as they had much further to go from their railheads than from the Center and North. In a way the Soviets did the Germans a double favor by not only launching their unwise Battle (Slaughter) of Kharkov but also giving the German rail crews more time to convert desperately needed rail lines.

As I see it, a 120 mile advanced rail network only allows the Germans to over-extend themselves all the more.:mad:
 
First of all this is a hindsight though, many of the things only came out after the war. But most important...how does it differ from life under stalin which is hellish, filled with rape, slavery, famine and untimely death.

Let's not get into this kind of pissing match again. While I agree with you that life under Stalin was truly a totalitarian nightmare, its just a historical fact that the Nazis evaporated the sympathy they might have got from the population by trying to exterminate them. Which was something that Stalin hadn't really done to his own slaves, with the exception of the Ukrainians.
 
I could see a few different outcomes.

-a truly mild winter will hurt the Nazis as it allows for the mud which strangles their supply trains and bogs down their tanks to last a few more weeks. When the mud froze their offensive picked up speed, enough to make a serious push to the gates of Moskva. A USSR counterattack as soon as the mud freezes will have the Germans off balance and will send them reeling, but not sure how far back they will go.

-A moderate winter is the best scenario for the Germans as the mud will freeze and the tanks will roll. If their casualties are reduced and they can encircle Moskva and Petrograd, they will let the cities starve before making large pushes, especially the latter. Stalingrad will fall as the Soviets pull back to the Urals as an ultimate defensive line and their factories now come into range of German mideium-range attack aircraft. There will be notably more casualties and the Russians that come back out of the Mountains in 1943ish will be hell-bent on revenge. It will be an absolute bloodbath in hte East and the war will not be over until 1946/7, by which time the Germans will be deploying 2nd generation jets, assault rifles, and probably an A9 capable of hitting London from Western Germany. With the war mot nearly as lost there will be more German troops in the West, and if their synthetic oil refineries come online their tanks and planes will be able to resupply much more effectively. It will be a devastating war probably ended with atomic weapons in Berlin, Frankfurt, Munich, and Kiel if not others. Germany will burn then get occupied and pay an even harsher penalty.
 
I figure that the better the Germans do in Typhoon, and the worse the Russians do in their winter counteroffensive, the better the Russians do by scaling back, if not cancelling, their spring offensives. And I second Usertron's comment that rail conversion is the real limit on the German offensive.
 
I figure that the better the Germans do in Typhoon, and the worse the Russians do in their winter counteroffensive, the better the Russians do by scaling back, if not cancelling, their spring offensives. And I second Usertron's comment that rail conversion is the real limit on the German offensive.

Thank you. A logistician after my own heart.:)
 
The opportunity for the Germans to take Moscow was already lost by the time the winter hit. Nazi strategy in Typhoon was dependent on the idea that the Red Army had no more reserves and was a spent force.

Hitler was wrong. The Red Army was marshalling significant reserves to defend Moscow already. Better weather that allowed the Germans to advance a little faster probably would have changed Soviet plans or the timing of the counterattack, but it would not have allowed them to take Moscow.

If Hitler had known that the Red Army was not defeated and massing large forces, he would have cancelled the attack on Moscow far earlier than he did IOTL and prepare defensive positions (which is probably the best move Hitler could have made).

For the Germans to take Moscow, we'd probably need a POD before the autumn raputista. That POD could vary depending on whether you keep the weather as IOTL, or want to go with the more moderate winter of this thread.
 
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