Eurofed
Banned
While reading the "Explosion heard around the world" TL by Shaby, a question came to me: if WWII as we know it never occurs or is nipped in the bud in 1939-40, which Western leaders we may expect to take over in the 1940s ?
Let's assume that WWII between the Axis powers and the Entente does not occur, or it quickly ends in a compromise peace during the Phony War, due a PoD between the Munich Agreement and the end of 1939 that results in Hitler assassinated or overthrown by coup. Either a Goering-Heer alliance or a Heer junta takes over, and purges the SS radicals or the Nazi leadership entirely.
The new German leadership does not invade post-Munich Czechoslovakia, or restores the independence of Czechia as part of the peace agreement, and CZ(S) stays an independent client state of Germany. The Polish crisis is settled with a German-Polish war, or an independent Poland is restored as part of the peace agreement, that establishes the 1807 or 1914 border, entrenched by a population exchange of minorities. Germany tones down its rearmament to stabilize its economic situation. A gradual detente between Germany and the Entente powers ensues.
Now, what can we hypothesize about the 1940s Western leaders ITTL ?
In America, FDR does not have the excuse of a war in Europe to defy the two-terms precedent established by Washington. The issue is debatable, but IMO the precedent was compelling enough that he would not dare break it in a peacetime situation. The lingering impopularity of the Republican Party was still enough to make a Democratic victory the most likely outcome, even with a different candidate. Truman was of course still too much unknown, and Henry Wallace too much radical left-wing, to win the Democratic nomination.
IMO the mantle would fall on James Farley. He had a good power base in the party as a moderate New Deal man, and FDR half-promised support to him, before deciding to run for a third term himself. Of course, a Republican victory cannot be ruled out, but it would require the Democrats to screw up something seriously. Peacetime situation in all likelihood butterflies away dark horse Willkie, and the contest in the GOP would be between Dewey and Taft. Perhaps we can expect a Dewey nomination as in OTL 1944.
In Britain, TTL conditions endorse the foreign policy platform of Chamberlain, he is never discredited, but hailed as the man that ensured "peace in our time". In all likelihood, he easily manages to stay the leader of the Conservative party and PM until he dies or steps down. A general election is due in 1940, and I do expect the Conservatives to win it. Nonetheless, Neville Chamberlain is fated to die by cancer in late 1940, so a successor would be necessary. ITTL a Churchill Premiership is of course impossible (unless Stalin or Tojo cause a different kind of general war), he would stay a marginalized backbencher. Eden, although much less in the fringe, would still be hamstrung by his previous resignation from Foreign Minister. So perhaps Lord Halifax.
It is more difficult to tell how long Daladier's government in France would have lasted without a general war, but the Popular Front coalition was collapsing anyway by late 1938, due to internal dissensions related to the SCW, bitter opposition of the right-wing, and the persistent effects of the Great Depression. A general election was due in 1941, and it is anyone's guess how it would have turned out.
In Canada, I do expect Mackenzie King to stay in power without a fuss, I am not aware of any issue that would make him lose the 1940 federal election if there is no war.
Let's assume that WWII between the Axis powers and the Entente does not occur, or it quickly ends in a compromise peace during the Phony War, due a PoD between the Munich Agreement and the end of 1939 that results in Hitler assassinated or overthrown by coup. Either a Goering-Heer alliance or a Heer junta takes over, and purges the SS radicals or the Nazi leadership entirely.
The new German leadership does not invade post-Munich Czechoslovakia, or restores the independence of Czechia as part of the peace agreement, and CZ(S) stays an independent client state of Germany. The Polish crisis is settled with a German-Polish war, or an independent Poland is restored as part of the peace agreement, that establishes the 1807 or 1914 border, entrenched by a population exchange of minorities. Germany tones down its rearmament to stabilize its economic situation. A gradual detente between Germany and the Entente powers ensues.
Now, what can we hypothesize about the 1940s Western leaders ITTL ?
In America, FDR does not have the excuse of a war in Europe to defy the two-terms precedent established by Washington. The issue is debatable, but IMO the precedent was compelling enough that he would not dare break it in a peacetime situation. The lingering impopularity of the Republican Party was still enough to make a Democratic victory the most likely outcome, even with a different candidate. Truman was of course still too much unknown, and Henry Wallace too much radical left-wing, to win the Democratic nomination.
IMO the mantle would fall on James Farley. He had a good power base in the party as a moderate New Deal man, and FDR half-promised support to him, before deciding to run for a third term himself. Of course, a Republican victory cannot be ruled out, but it would require the Democrats to screw up something seriously. Peacetime situation in all likelihood butterflies away dark horse Willkie, and the contest in the GOP would be between Dewey and Taft. Perhaps we can expect a Dewey nomination as in OTL 1944.
In Britain, TTL conditions endorse the foreign policy platform of Chamberlain, he is never discredited, but hailed as the man that ensured "peace in our time". In all likelihood, he easily manages to stay the leader of the Conservative party and PM until he dies or steps down. A general election is due in 1940, and I do expect the Conservatives to win it. Nonetheless, Neville Chamberlain is fated to die by cancer in late 1940, so a successor would be necessary. ITTL a Churchill Premiership is of course impossible (unless Stalin or Tojo cause a different kind of general war), he would stay a marginalized backbencher. Eden, although much less in the fringe, would still be hamstrung by his previous resignation from Foreign Minister. So perhaps Lord Halifax.
It is more difficult to tell how long Daladier's government in France would have lasted without a general war, but the Popular Front coalition was collapsing anyway by late 1938, due to internal dissensions related to the SCW, bitter opposition of the right-wing, and the persistent effects of the Great Depression. A general election was due in 1941, and it is anyone's guess how it would have turned out.
In Canada, I do expect Mackenzie King to stay in power without a fuss, I am not aware of any issue that would make him lose the 1940 federal election if there is no war.
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