Suppose World War II did not break out, or perhaps it was ended before November 1940. How would this have affected the 1940 presidential election in the United States?
There are many factors to consider, of course. Perhaps Nazi Germany achieved victory in Western Europe, such as in the typical “Britain seeks an armistice following a Dunkirk disaster” scenario. Or maybe the invasion of Western Europe is a failure and Britain and France are able to defeat Germany somehow. Then there is the Pacific theater to consider. Japan’s war with China had begun two years before WWII but became a theater of that larger conflict. Even if the European war ended in 1940, the conflict in East Asia would still be occurring.
If there is no war, or if it ends early enough, then Franklin Roosevelt might decide not to seek a third term. Or maybe he would still seek a third term if the Nazis had been victorious in Western Europe and Britain had dropped out of the war; there is also still the threat posed by Japan to U.S. territories and interests in the Pacific. Perhaps FDR would still believe that only he could lead America to resist the German and Japanese threats.
If there is no war at all, or if Britain and France defeat Germany, then the Republican nomination is probably won by an isolationist, such as Robert Taft. If the Germans achieve victory in Western Europe, then the internationalist Wendell Willkie probably wins the nomination as in OTL.
In OTL, Gallup polling conducted during the 1940 election found that without the European war, voters would have preferred Willkie over Roosevelt:
When this survey asked voters which candidate they would prefer if there were no war in Europe, a majority of 53 per cent said they would prefer Willkie. For his third term Roosevelt can thank the blitzkrieg.
This polling result is one of the reasons I’m interested in this AH scenario.