1940 U.S. presidential election without World War II

Suppose World War II did not break out, or perhaps it was ended before November 1940. How would this have affected the 1940 presidential election in the United States?

There are many factors to consider, of course. Perhaps Nazi Germany achieved victory in Western Europe, such as in the typical “Britain seeks an armistice following a Dunkirk disaster” scenario. Or maybe the invasion of Western Europe is a failure and Britain and France are able to defeat Germany somehow. Then there is the Pacific theater to consider. Japan’s war with China had begun two years before WWII but became a theater of that larger conflict. Even if the European war ended in 1940, the conflict in East Asia would still be occurring.

If there is no war, or if it ends early enough, then Franklin Roosevelt might decide not to seek a third term. Or maybe he would still seek a third term if the Nazis had been victorious in Western Europe and Britain had dropped out of the war; there is also still the threat posed by Japan to U.S. territories and interests in the Pacific. Perhaps FDR would still believe that only he could lead America to resist the German and Japanese threats.

If there is no war at all, or if Britain and France defeat Germany, then the Republican nomination is probably won by an isolationist, such as Robert Taft. If the Germans achieve victory in Western Europe, then the internationalist Wendell Willkie probably wins the nomination as in OTL.

In OTL, Gallup polling conducted during the 1940 election found that without the European war, voters would have preferred Willkie over Roosevelt:
When this survey asked voters which candidate they would prefer if there were no war in Europe, a majority of 53 per cent said they would prefer Willkie. For his third term Roosevelt can thank the blitzkrieg.

This polling result is one of the reasons I’m interested in this AH scenario.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Nothing earthshaking or new in this. Absent a European war Roosevelt may have been persuaded to not run for the third term.
The effects of this could be interesting, though. Indeed, if the PoD for this goes as far back as having Adolf Hitler get killed in 1923, then we might see an authoritarian and right-wing but non-Nazi German government starting from the 1930s which would still be dissatisfied with Germany's post-WWI borders.

In such a scenario, if Robert Taft wins the 1940 Republican Presidential nomination, the 1941 to 1944 time period (assuming that German rearmament still begins en masse in the mid-1930s in this TL) might be a perfect time for Germany to try militarily seizing the Polish Corridor. After all, with Robert Taft as U.S. President, we might not even see anything like Cash and Carry; thus, Britain and France would have to fight Germany all on their own (and even then, I'm not even sure that Britain would actually fight in this TL).
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Suppose World War II did not break out, or perhaps it was ended before November 1940. How would this have affected the 1940 presidential election in the United States?

There are many factors to consider, of course. Perhaps Nazi Germany achieved victory in Western Europe, such as in the typical “Britain seeks an armistice following a Dunkirk disaster” scenario. Or maybe the invasion of Western Europe is a failure and Britain and France are able to defeat Germany somehow. Then there is the Pacific theater to consider. Japan’s war with China had begun two years before WWII but became a theater of that larger conflict. Even if the European war ended in 1940, the conflict in East Asia would still be occurring.

If there is no war, or if it ends early enough, then Franklin Roosevelt might decide not to seek a third term. Or maybe he would still seek a third term if the Nazis had been victorious in Western Europe and Britain had dropped out of the war; there is also still the threat posed by Japan to U.S. territories and interests in the Pacific. Perhaps FDR would still believe that only he could lead America to resist the German and Japanese threats.

If there is no war at all, or if Britain and France defeat Germany, then the Republican nomination is probably won by an isolationist, such as Robert Taft. If the Germans achieve victory in Western Europe, then the internationalist Wendell Willkie probably wins the nomination as in OTL.

In OTL, Gallup polling conducted during the 1940 election found that without the European war, voters would have preferred Willkie over Roosevelt:


This polling result is one of the reasons I’m interested in this AH scenario.
Frankly, what I'm more curious about is a 1940 election with World War II but without the Fall of France.

In such a scenario, does FDR still run in and win in 1940?
 
Frankly, what I'm more curious about is a 1940 election with World War II but without the Fall of France.

In such a scenario, does FDR still run in and win in 1940?
Of course you only care about the Fall of France, I've noticed that it's your baby scenario.

The Fall of France happened in May of 1940, well into the presidential campaign, so any choice to run or not would have been made before that.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Of course you only care about the Fall of France, I've noticed that it's your baby scenario.

Yes, in regards to World War II, it certainly is. However, that's because it allows for significant changes in this TL without getting rid of World War II itself; in other words, this dynamic is interesting.

The Fall of France happened in May of 1940, well into the presidential campaign, so any choice to run or not would have been made before that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1940#Democratic_Party

"Throughout the winter, spring, and summer of 1940, there was much speculation as to whether Roosevelt would break with longstanding tradition and run for an unprecedented third term. The two-term tradition, although not yet enshrined in the Constitution, had been established by George Washington when he refused to run for a third term in the United States presidential election, 1796. Roosevelt refused to give a definitive statement as to his willingness to be a candidate again, and he even indicated to some ambitious Democrats, such as James Farley, that he would not run for a third term and that they could seek the Democratic nomination. However, as Nazi Germany swept through Western Europe and menaced the United Kingdom in the summer of 1940, Roosevelt decided that only he had the necessary experience and skills to see the nation safely through the Nazi threat. He was aided by the party's political bosses, who feared that no Democrat except Roosevelt could defeat the popular Willkie.[3]"

Indeed, please keep in mind that we didn't really have an action-packed primary season yet in 1940. In turn, this fact combined with FDR's incumbency allowed him to wait until a relatively late time period before making the decision whether or not to run again for a third term in 1940.
 
Frankly, what I'm more curious about is a 1940 election with World War II but without the Fall of France.

In such a scenario, does FDR still run in and win in 1940?

If Britain and France are able to turn back the German invasion and defeat Germany before July 1940 (when the Democratic National Convention occurred), then FDR would probably decline to seek a third term. The Western European democracies would have prevailed, and the Nazi threat would have been eradicated or at least greatly diminished.

If France has not fallen, but the war is still raging in Western Europe (perhaps as a stalemate) at the time of the DNC, then FDR most likely seeks a third term as in OTL. He probably still wins the 1940 election, albeit with a smaller margin of victory without the shock of the Nazi defeat of France. However, if the Germans are defeated sometime between FDR being nominated at the DNC and November, then the election could go either way.

I think that as long as the Nazis remained a potential threat to the United States, then FDR would run for a third term.

Had FDR not run in 1940, then I think Alben Barkley (then serving as Senate Majority Leader) would have emerged as a compromise candidate and would probably become the Democratic nominee. I think he would probably win the presidential election, though not in a landslide like FDR in OTL.
 
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