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Italy was not really prepared for war in 1940 and entered the war largely because it thought the war was over.
Let's assume Il Duce is more cautious. He remains neutral. After a few months, with Germany and the UK at one another's throats, he decides to be opportunistic. His war aims always were Corsica,Tunis, Djibouti, Nice, Savoy - why not use the chaos to achieve them.
So in the Fall of 1940, he seizes Djibouti and French Somaliland from the French. He doesn't declare war on anyone. He just moves in. The Vichy government protests. Hitler sends him a mild protest. The UK stays silent hoping for a conflict between Italy and Germany. After a week or two - nothing.
So - a couple of months later. Italy seizes Tunisia. This is a nastier fight but the Italian Navy dominates the sea and land forces breach the Mareth line from Libya. The fight lasts a couple of months but Hitler leans on Laval to back off. Again, nasty protests from the Vichy government and a mild rebuke from Hitler.
In succession now, Italy grabs Corfu, Fiume, several Greek islands in the Aegean and now sets its sights on Corsica.
What next?
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