1940 - Italy Stays Neutral

The US had a panic attack when France collapsed, mobilizing every reservist & National Guardsman & setting in motion ramping the Army to 1,600,000 men in eight to ten months, along with handing the Army & Navy a blank check for purchasing equipment. When Japan grabbed French colonies in Asia the US threw a conniption and led in the imposition of economic actions that came within a centimeter of being a DoW. So, if Italy tries the same stunt with Tunisia? I'll leave the readers here to judge for themselves.

They will do between nothing and nada; Japanese troops in Indochina are a danger for the US interest and a strategic problem...Italy grabbing some French colonies in Africa are almost at 'who care?' level with an hint of 'where the devil is this place?'; plus while the Wallies had basically accepted the fact that in the end Italy will have entered the war at German side and put military and economic pression on her, the Fall of France changed everything.
The last thing that Churchill and everyone in the UK will want after Dunkirk it's the Italian dow, so while them grabbing some colonies will not make anyone (German included) happy and it's very probable that Adolf will put some pressure himselfs to contain Benny, in the end Italy will have a relative free hand (expecially if London can use her to keep the balkan free of German and Soviets)
 
Before June 1941, the Italians may have been getting some oil from the USSR - I believe that they got some that way during the embargo caused by the invasion of Ethiopia. One of the key dynamics leading up to the US involvement in WW2 was the question of how to bring the country into the war on a unified basis. FDR would really have preferred not to have a Declaration of War which barely squeaked through approval by Congress. Of course, Pearl Harbor - followed by declarations of war against the United States by Germany and Italy - solved that problem. We went into the war unified and prepared to sacrifice and see it through.
Going to war in order to prevent Italy from grabbing Vichy French colonies would not have commanded that kind of a consensus and may not have commanded majority support.
 
A few things to consider:

1. Without Italy declaring war without warning, Britain doesn't get most of the Italian merchant marine for free
2. The Italians don't really have that much fuel for fleet operations. HOWEVER, the French have almost no fuel for fleet operations, meaning they can't really 'fight back' all that much.
3. Fiume was already Italian since 1924. Seizing the narrow strip of land that connects it to Italy leads to war with Yugoslavia, as the Italians had given that up in 1924 as part of the Treaty of Rome (approved by Mussolini no less)
4. Invading any Greek territory leads to war with the UK, as Britain had guaranteed Greek independence at the same time they issued their guarantee to Poland
5. I doubt the OTL Italian army has the capacity to breach the Mareth line in anything approaching a reasonable time frame, keeping in mind that they would be forced to keep substantial forces in eastern Libya, just in case. (the distance from the border to it is about the same as the one they advanced historically into Egypt before their logistics couldn't cope anymore)

Interesting. They probably would have had trouble in Tunisia. Their army performed horribly in the early phases of the war. The alternate scenario assumes a willingness to violate treaties so grabbing the territory around Fiume and some islands in the Adriatic from Yugoslavia is a possibility. The merchant marine issue is very interesting. If Italy had delayed entering the war and gotten its transport ships back home before entering the war, the Axis would have been in a much better position to supply its forces in North Africa. Italy rushed to enter the war because it thought the war was about to end.
 
Before June 1941, the Italians may have been getting some oil from the USSR - I believe that they got some that way during the embargo caused by the invasion of Ethiopia. ...

Italy had been investing in Rumanias oil industry, tho I don't have exact numbers for imports from that nation. It appears the investment was wasted as The Soviet annexation of Moldavia led to Germany gaining control over who purchased from that source.

They will do between nothing and nada; Japanese troops in Indochina are a danger for the US interest and a strategic problem...Italy grabbing some French colonies in Africa are almost at 'who care?' level with an hint of 'where the devil is this place?'...

That was not the attitude of Roosevelt & the other warhawks. There were priorities, but keeping the French colonies out of hands of the nations on the enemies lists and accessible to US business was at the core of US policy.
 
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