1940 - Hitler turns West - Elimination of Britain

[Jukra]

Note: I've posted about this and have been pondering about doing a timeline about this. Feel free to argue, I'll do the best I can, using Onkel Willies ploy as a helper... Let the smacking begin!

1. Decision

POD: 23 June 1940

The German Wehrmacht had achieved an unbelievable victory. France had fallen within just one and a half months of the initial assault together with the Low Countries. Now Germany was the master of almost entire Atlantic coast from Kirkenes in the North to Hendaye in South.

Adolf Hitler pondered on what to do next. Turning towards east against USSR, as had always been his plan, was yet out of the question until Summer of 1941. Meanwhile, Britain had not at least yet asked for terms of armistice. While Göring tried his best to allow his Luftwaffe to finish off Britain for good Hitler was not that assured. No country had surrendered just due to aerial bombing. Even the subjugation of Poles had required physical occupation of the country.

How about leaving Britain alone and conducting just a siege operation until Soviet Union would be crushed? While this option seemed good there was a risk that Britain and Commonwealth continuing to fight, drawing on increasingly with industrial resources of United States, might give USSR so much support that even if Communism collapsed on first day of the assault on East, a new Russia might be formed to fight on, sapping German resources. Britain should be crushed before assault on Soviet Union to leave no chances.

The elimination of Britain should be carried out during Summer and Autumn of 1941, making invasion of Soviet Union possible at latest of Winter 1941-1942. Thus the decision was made.

2. Directive No 16

The Führer and Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces,
Führerhauptquartier,
14 July 1940,
9 copies

Directive No 16: Unternehmen Maria

The German Armed forces must be prepared to defeat Britain even before the campaign against Soviet Union. The purpose of this operation is to eliminate the English mother country as a base for continuation of the war against Germany and, if it should become necessary, to occupy the entire island.

The Unternehmen Maria will have three components: War on British trade and war economy (Unternehmen Störtebeker) to disable British means of carrying out the war, Support of Italian Mediterranean campaign to sap British strength and morale (Unternehmen Sphinx) and preparation and carrying out, if necessary, invasion of Britain (Unternehmen Seelöwe).

The Army will prepare expeditionary forces to conduct an invasion of British Isles (Unternehmen Seelöwe) and support of Italian Mediterranean campaign (Unternehmen Sphinx).

The Luftwaffe will 1.) Conduct an aerial campaign to distrupt British War Economy principally by destroying British trade. (Unternehmen Störtebeker) 2.) Carry out operations in accordance to Unternehmen Sphinx 3.) Prepare for the support of Unternehmen Seelöwe.

The Navy will conduct a major part in Unternehmen Störtebeker and will prepare to transport the expeditionary force to Britain in context of Unternehmen Seelöwe.

Preparations for Unternehmen Störtebeker must be completed by 15 August 1940.

Preparations for Unternehmen Sphinx must be completed by 1 October 1940.

Preparations for Unternehmen Seelöwe must be completed by 1 August 1941.

Economic requirements in accordance to requirements of Störtebeker, Sphinx and Seelöwe shall be submitted by 1 August 1940.

 

[Hades]

Gasp! The Unmentionable Sea Mammal has been mentioned!

 

[Penelope]

The unmentionable sea mammal?!

Washes Jukra's mouth out with soap.

 

[Jukra]

3. Unternehmen Störtebeker - Destruction of British trade and war economy

Führerhauptquartier,
1 August 1941

The objective of Unternehmen Störtebeker is to destroy British trade and war economy in order to ensure or help in the subjugation of Britain. The point of gravity of operations will be against British naval communications and British naval strength as Britain is completely dependant upon seaborne commerce.

Tasks for the Navy

I. The U-boat arm will redeploy to French Atlantic coast and will carry out operations against British trade with maximum intensity until the preparatory phase of Unternehmen Seelöwe.

II. In light of the heavy casualties suffered during the Norwegian campaign the main focus of the Navy light surface forces will be force regeneration and training in preparation to prepare, and if necessary, to carry out the Untenehmen Seelöwe. Minor operations will be carried out to tie in British naval strength on home waters and in order to season the units.

III. Heavy units (ie. CA's, Panzerschiffe, Battleships and battlecruisers) will re-deploy to French Atlantic coast bases in beginning of 1941 and will carry out operations against enemy trade while transitioning. After re-deployment the operations will be carried out only in most favorable circumstances while preparing for Unternehmen Seelöwe.

Tasks for the Luftwaffe

I. Objective of air operations in Unternehmen Störtebeker is to destroy British war economy. Destruction of British morale is of secondary concern although it may come out as first priority during preparatory period for Unternehmen Seelöwe.

II. Bombing units will carry out raids on selected British industrial facilities to destroy British war economy. The priority will be as follows:

a) Targets associated with shipbuilding and naval communications, ie. shipyards and ports

b) Targets associated with production of aircraft

III. Short-range bombing units (Stuka-Gescwader, Ju-87) will concentrate on destroying British coastal traffic

IV. Selected bombing units (mainly Ju-88) will concentrate on British merchant traffic approaching or leaving Great Britain.

V. Luftwaffe units will support the Navy war effort with long-range reconnaissance and aerial defense of the naval bases.

 

[Jukra]

The unmentionable sea mammal?!

Washes Jukra's mouth out with soap.

Well, I'll try my best to avoid handwawing anything, be ready to catch on any implausibilities where ever you spot them. So there won't be Rommel in Delhi by end of the year 1940 etc... I consider good posts to be those which have good counter-arguments. Let the fight begin! (note: I know this is a Kamikaze mission... )

 

[Thinker1200]

MUST......RESIST....URGE.....TO.....KILL. Unmentionable sea mammal is UNMENTIONABLE!!!!!!!!

 

[Astrodragon]

I'm not quite sure how this differes teribly much from OTL, except that Hitler seems to have given up on attacking Russia (which was the main POINT of the whole war!!!) until 1942 at least. Thus giving the Russians at least one more year to rearm and retrain their army.

The Luftwaffe will miss out the BoB, but will carry on the Blitz. Against steady and growing night fighters with improving radar and planes. Not much difference there.

The Navy? Same as OTL, there isnt much if anything they can do they didnt already. In any case, given the number of submarines available, it is highly unlikely they can starve Britain out in less than 2 years, they simply dont have the u-boats to do it.

The Med? Well, again they helpled a lot there OTL.
An Air fleet, Paratroops, an invasion of greece, the AFrica Korps....just how much more help can be given? The bombers, after all, are going to be busy over England. They will have more (no BoB), but then the British will have a lot more planes for the same reason. And are heavily outbuilding them. They dont have the logistics to move much more than they did to NA, and at this point at least Mussolini is going to be rather unhappy at Hitler just taking over his war...

I just dont see how this gets the Germasn much, at least until the summer of 1941. At which point they have to face a much strnoger British army if they want to do unmentionable things with fat sea mammels. So at this point they lose the rest of the KM and a lot of the LW....
And of courser, during all this Stalin is grinning and rearming.

 

[Jukra]

The Luftwaffe will miss out the BoB, but will carry on the Blitz. Against steady and growing night fighters with improving radar and planes. Not much difference there.

Let's say that so will the RAF, which will be thrown into offensive tasks it cannot yet sustain...

I just dont see how this gets the Germasn much, at least until the summer of 1941. At which point they have to face a much strnoger British army if they want to do unmentionable things with fat sea mammels. So at this point they lose the rest of the KM and a lot of the LW.... And of courser, during all this Stalin is grinning and rearming.

The point is not for Germany to win but the Sealion to commence! And the elimination of Britain (if it should succeed) brings also benefits for Germany in Operation Barbarossa.

 

[Jukra]

4. Unternehmen Sphinx - Harassment of Britain in the Mediterranean and the Middle East

Führerhauptquartier,
1 August 1940

The objective of Unternehmen Sphinx is to destroy the Mediterranean as British base of power, erode British strength and morale and to secure Europe's southern flank.

Due to joint nature of operations with our Italian allies all orders are of preparatory nature and will be subject to modification. Spanish participation in the campaign is possible and will be dealt with separate preparatory order. Case studies for Turkish participation will also be made.

Preparatory tasks for the branches of Armed Forces

The Navy will support the Sphinx by deploying technical specialists in support of the Italian Navy and by deploying a number of submarines to destroy British commerce and harass British naval strength in the Mediterranean. This effort will be of secondary importance to Unternehmen Störtebeker. The deployment will commence by 1 October 1940.

The Army will prepare to deploy an expeditionary force to support of Italian Fifth Army. The expeditionary force will consist primarily of two panzer divisions which are to be ready to transfer via rail to Italy by 1 November 1941. In addition the Army will support Luftwaffe air landing troops by specific deployments.

The Luftwaffe will:

I. Form an air landing formation of XI Fliegerkorps with 7th Flieger-Division and Army's 22. Luftlande Infanterie Division as it's core. XI Fliegerkorps will deploy to Italy and prepare for conquest of British island base of Malta with 1 November 1940 as the target date.

II. Deploy the Luftflotte 2 to support the operations in the Mediterranean beginning from 1 October 1940. Luftflotte 2 will prepare to support invasion of Malta with target date of 1 November 1940.

III. Prepare to support the Italian Air Force with technical experts.

Abwehr will, in addition to normal intelligence duties prepare to incite revolts in British Middle Eastern territories. Luftwaffe and Army will prepare a minor expeditionary force to be ready to support these measures if an opportunity comes. The exact operations will be dealt in separate orders.

 

[Jukra]

5. Cruel economic realities

Führerhauptquartier,
10 August 1940

Economic preparations for Unternehmen Maria and it's components

The objective of Unternehmen Maria is to eliminate British participation of the current war. At same time the Army and the industry must prepare for contingency in the East.

I Background

The recent pronounciations by Roosevelt mean that American industrial complex will be mobilized for battle beginning in 1942. This essentially reconfirms the earlier time table for necessity of eliminating Britain before end of the year 1941.

In sum, economic requirements in equipping the Luftwaffe will be similar in preparation for contingency in the East as in Unternehmen Maria, barring some minor technical equipment such as anti-shipping bombs.

In case of the Army the equipment technical requirements will be the same for Unternehmen Seelöwe as in contingency in the East. There will be no possibility, however, to conduct Seelöwe at same time as offensive operations in the East due to requirements on mobile forces.

In case of the Navy the specific requirements for the Seelöwe are mostly consistent for equipment which can be used in contingency in the Black Sea and the Baltic for offensive operations.

II Division of resources

The Army will release large portion of it's manpower to armaments industry startin from 1 September 1940 while simultaneously making sure it can mobilize in rapid fashion in case of a contingency in the East. The target number of manpower to be released is in region of 40%. Production of armored fighting vehicles and motor vehicles will continue as a priority (in other words, as OTL) but munition production will proceed at smaller scale until ordered otherwise.

The Navy will guide it's production as the support of Unternehmen Seelöwe with the target date of 1 August 1941. As in this short time no additional major surface combatants can be completed nor their crews adequately trained the effort will be directed, in addition to construction of various support and light combat craft, to completing the ships already under construction more rapidly. Submarine construction will continue at somewhat more limited pace. This will have an effect on submarine strength from 1 January 1942 onwards, in essence after the war has been won.

Projected additions to inventory: (captured ships, conversions and those constructed in occupied shipyards not included)

BB: 2 (as in OTL, but Tirpitz training accelerated)
CA: - (Prinz Eugen to operational use)
DD: 8 Type 1936A (against 6 OTL)
DE: 9 T-37 (against 4 OTL)
MCM: 42 M-Boot 1935 (against 20 OTL)
FAC: 80 S-boats 39 and 39/40 (against 35 OTL)
LCT: 1000 MFP's, totalling 220 000 tons. For this construction program the merchant ship construction must be curtailed until end of Seelöwe. The losses can be replaced via captured and contracted tonnage.

The Luftwaffe will continue to replenish the losses suffered during Fall Gelb. The production goal for September 1940 to September 1941 will be 10 000 aircraft. (compared to 9400 planes produced in 1941 and 12 000 in 1942, as a result of reshuffling in 1941)

 

[BlackWave]

A Sealion?

But hey; while the Reich's away, the Union will play...

 

[Jukra]

6. "Set Europe ablaze"

10 August 1940

Meanwhile, on the another side of the Channel the new British Prime Minister Churchill was also pondering his option. While in public there were fears of a German invasion and the disarmed Army frantically prepared itself for the possible assault Mr. Churchill himself was sure that the attack would not come, or if it did, it would fail. Royal Navy's margin of superiority was so large that even if an invasion did come it would be impossible to supply it. The RAF was also recuperating from Battle of France and was no inconsequential force either. On the other side of the Atlantic President Roosevel was pushing for US rearmament and stronger support for Great Britain. German threat to shipping was not yet critical but it would probably increase at great pace.

In short term what would come would be threat from the air, but thanks to British air defence effort the effects could be endured and they might even raise the spirit of defiance.

Thus Britain could, like during Napoleonic wars, continue it's traditional form of warfare "nibbling round the edges". For this purpose the British forces in the Mediterranean would be greatly strengthened. Meanwhile Britain would construct an aerial fleet so vast it could bomb Germany into submission or at least weaken it so much that by the time USA eventually came into the conflict the situation would be favourable.

The problem was that all this would require years which for British and Continental public would seem very bleak. Although offensive actions in the Mediterranean would be possible perhaps even before end of 1940 they would not be spectacular. Something more would be needed. Thus Churchill's decision to carry out the offensive towards Europe would have numerous prongs.

First, using Royal Marines splendid tradition a raiding force of "Commandos" would be formed to perform raids on German occupied continental coast to keep Germans on their toes. Second, just like Germans had used the Fifth Column to subdue resistance (Note: This is largely a myth but during WW II a very popular myth) Britain would also form it's own "Fifth Column" on the Continent by using SOE. Third, militarily most important would be continuos offensive operations by RAF against Continental Europe. RAF would gain experience and many important military targets would be destroyed. For moral reasons RAF could not just build up strength for the eventual offensive.

 

[Astrodragon]

Let's say that so will the RAF, which will be thrown into offensive tasks it cannot yet sustain...



The point is not for Germany to win but the Sealion to commence! And the elimination of Britain (if it should succeed) brings also benefits for Germany in Operation Barbarossa.

But Barbarossa cant go ahead before 1942....!

Actually, this would have a reasonable chance of working, except that I dont think a proposed C-Lion would look viable before 1942. Now, by then Germany and Italy should have the entire Med, Britain will have serious shipping issues and shortages, and loads of time to build landing craft.
The snag, of course, is that the Japanese are likely to carry on as OTL (after all, with Russia not at war going North isnt really an option any more). So once the USA enters the war.....

 

[Jukra]

But Barbarossa cant go ahead before 1942....!

Yes, but by that time (if Britain is eliminated by one way or another) Germany has also had additional year to build up it's armed forces and has sea lines of communications to help out in supply etc. Whether or not this is negated by Stalin's additional build-up is another issue.

But anyway, I've started this TL more as an exploration on the issue rather than having SS London established by end of 1941...

 

[Jim Hale]

So far so good imo. Obviously no BoB will mean less of a panic to keep churning out fighters and fighter pilots for the Brits.

However I'm not sure giving Russia extra time will bode well for the future. If Germany has forewarning of Pearl Harbour, is dropping the Japanese alliance not a bad idea?

 

[Astrodragon]

The only trouble with no BoB...is that this looks like what will happen anyway!

After all, at this point the Germans (and everyone else) thinks daylight bombing is the way to go.
So the LW is going to start out, as before, going for those targets in daylight.
Cue even heavier losses than in OTL.
Now they can go straight to night bombing, but given how rigid the Air Staffs on all sides were, I'd bet they try and supress the RAF..shades of the BoB again.
Then, when losses get too severe, go to night bombing.

And a production run of 10,000 is going to be a lot less aircraft than the UK produces - 15k in 40, 20k in 41. Plus all the US aircraft.


Oh, and while its easy to build small landing craft fast - a point. You need to develop and test a design - untested designs have this unfortunate tendency to sink...
So you probably wont get quite so many by the summer.

I'm not saying this idea isnt a viable strategy, you understand, I just dont feel its all doable in a year.

 

[Markus]

But hey; while the Reich's away, the Union will play...

Exactly, a 42-Barbarossa will run into much, much more opposition and by 43 the window of opportunity has passed.

 

[Alratan]

Moreover, no BoB means that the RAF will be in substantially better shape, several promising developments wee cancelled because of the panic or destroyed by bombing.

On the North African campaign, it's worth remembering that IOTL the Germans did abou the maximum logistically possible - pushing more resources into the theatre could easily be counter-productive.

 

[BlairWitch749]

Moreover, no BoB means that the RAF will be in substantially better shape, several promising developments wee cancelled because of the panic or destroyed by bombing.

On the North African campaign, it's worth remembering that IOTL the Germans did abou the maximum logistically possible - pushing more resources into the theatre could easily be counter-productive.

the transportation net in Libya supported at maximum 4.5 German divisions and 10 Italian (after alemain) with the subsequent air superiority that would come from the commitment of an air fleet to the theater Tripoli, Bengahzi and later Tobruk could provide enough forward shipping space to equip an extra German division or two than otl. It must be remembered that the RAF was concentrating most of their strength for the BOB and defense of the home islands in mid to late 1940. Their assets in Egypt at that time were very minimal (gladiator fighter was the primary fighter for some time) Hurricaines were brought in both flying overland across africa, direct through the med and the long way around the cape but they could in no way come close to matching a German commitment of 2nd air fleet or similar.

An invasion of malta is not necessary. The German commitment of an airfleet to the theater would probably allow them to capture Alexandria and the Suez canal without much more land forces than otl. With Alexandria gone as a staging area Malta would have to be evacuated in the face of air and sea superiority or left to wither on the vine

 

[Jukra]

After all, at this point the Germans (and everyone else) thinks daylight bombing is the way to go. So the LW is going to start out, as before, going for those targets in daylight. Cue even heavier losses than in OTL. Now they can go straight to night bombing, but given how rigid the Air Staffs on all sides were, I'd bet they try and supress the RAF..shades of the BoB again. Then, when losses get too severe, go to night bombing.

Losses will be severe but this isn't the all out effort like BoB historically was. With lower tempo there's more time to learn - for both sides. Naturally this also means more RAF planes will end up in the Mediterranean after a delay which was caused by very long transfer routes.

And a production run of 10,000 is going to be a lot less aircraft than the UK produces - 15k in 40, 20k in 41. Plus all the US aircraft.

Yes, but still Luftwaffe was historically very troublesome to RAF until circa 1943, even when helped by Soviet and US air forces.

Oh, and while its easy to build small landing craft fast - a point. You need to develop and test a design - untested designs have this unfortunate tendency to sink... So you probably wont get quite so many by the summer.

Landing craft weren't exactly high-tech and AFAIK, no WW2 combatant ran into major problems when producing them even with high tempo. Naturally more refined designs were better, but principles of naval assault craft were well known even before the war. Also, by Autumn of 1941 of OTL KM was using rather high number of MFP's and Siebel crafts in the Baltic.

I'm not saying this idea isnt a viable strategy, you understand, I just dont feel its all doable in a year.

Yes, for the Reich the clock is running and by 1942 both USA and USSR have picked up speed. Historically Hitler knew this and his solution was to attack USSR first, and, as we know, he did not succeed.

Exactly, a 42-Barbarossa will run into much, much more opposition and by 43 the window of opportunity has passed.

Barbarossa wasn't succesful even in 1941 variant, why is there this fixation with Germany winning?