1940: FDR Says no

Lindbergh would probably be too controversial assuming the situation in Europe is similar to OTL. Yes, there was a lot of isolationism in the country and in the GOP, but Lindbergh's outright sympathy with the Nazis was arguably a step too far even for the mainstream of the GOP.

Also, while Taft is certainly a possibility, people shouldn't rule out Dewey as the nominee. Yes, he was young (38), and only a DA, but he was actually the frontrunner for the GOP nod that year. He was already a national celebrity, and came from a hugely important swing state (New York) - for a GOP that was desperate for a win, he might well have gotten the nomination, particularly over Taft who was seen as too conservative and too Midwestern to appeal to more New Deal-friendly states.

Dewey/Vandenberg, perhaps?

ON EDIT: I should point out that the most obvious way to get FDR out of the 1940 race is for war to have not broken out in Europe or for the crisis to have been resolved earlier. That could be anything from one of the assassination attempts on Hitler succeeding, France invading Germany in response to Rhineland militarization, or war breaking out in 1938 and being resolved without U.S. involvement. That means no FDR third term, no Willkie groundswell, and a presidential campaign focused on domestic affairs.
 
Very doubtful to me that Vandenberg would accept the second slot on the ticket, especially not with a relative tyro like Dewey at the top--and doubly so with Dewey's already-sizable ego (I forget who it was that said of Dewey that he could "strut while sitting down"). On the other hand, Lindbergh for the second slot isn't entirely outrageous: it is the vice presidency, not the top of the ticket; he'd appeal to the America First crowd; he's already a media idol. I could perhaps even see Joe Kennedy bolting the Dems to support this ticket (one should point out that Dewey was at best/most a fence-sitter on internationalism at this point; Kennedy and Lindbergh pretty much saw eye to eye on the European situation).
 
Very doubtful to me that Vandenberg would accept the second slot on the ticket, especially not with a relative tyro like Dewey at the top--and doubly so with Dewey's already-sizable ego (I forget who it was that said of Dewey that he could "strut while sitting down"). On the other hand, Lindbergh for the second slot isn't entirely outrageous: it is the vice presidency, not the top of the ticket; he'd appeal to the America First crowd; he's already a media idol. I could perhaps even see Joe Kennedy bolting the Dems to support this ticket (one should point out that Dewey was at best/most a fence-sitter on internationalism at this point; Kennedy and Lindbergh pretty much saw eye to eye on the European situation).

Right, but the GOP establishment wasn't too keen on the America First crowd. Yes, the GOP mainstream was anti-interventionist, but not quite isolationist/Nazi-sympathizer as Lindbergh was. Now, maybe if you choose an early POD, where Hitler isn't even a factor, this could work out (although then you'd also butterfly even the political appeal of outspoken isolationism), but if you're assuming something like a short-war-in-1938 scenario I think he'd be too controversial.

Anyway, the VP could be anyone, but if Dewey is the nominee, I'd expect him to be an older figure, probably from the Midwest and probably more conservative.
 
The key = FDR's favor and support

It's 1940. As the outgoing party leader, FDR would have the biggest
vote for his successor at the Chicago Democratic convention.

FDR did not want Garner and would block it. In 2008 GWB held little sway in his successor. In 1940 FDR's support is a sine qua non of the Democratic nominee.

FDR would look for a New Dealer AND someone who shared his foreign policy stance [especially toward the War in Europe].

I toss a new name into the ring for discussion sake... not coronation. There are certainly others who fit the bill to be FDR's blessed dauphin for 1940.

James F Byrnes of South Carolina was almost FDR's choice in 1944 for VP [when even FDR knew the VP really mattered].

FDR was frantic to hold onto a Supreme Court that would not overturn the New Deal. Thus in OTL Senator Byrnes got the nod in mid-41.

Byrnes would need to be paired with a non-Southern VP.
 
A bit on Wallace. Wallace likely will have a lot of recognition from his role as Secretary of Agriculture, and be popular in many farm states. (He may not be popular in the South as much as the Midwest.) On the other hand, while he was a major Roosevelt supporter, some might argue that he would not be a true Democrat, especially since his father was a Republican cabinet member (Agriculture Secretary under Harding and Coolidge, until his death).
 
As others have said, Byrnes has too much standing against him; even Labor Unions were wary of him, and their support would be crucial to any Presidential Campaign.

Wallace is in the same situation; he only made it on the ticket because FDR insisted on it, and threatened not to run if he wasn't by his side. Nothing he does so will make Wallace the nominee unless he is heading the ticket himself, and I doubt that few who would head the ticket would be willing to accept him.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
The more I look at the Republican position, the more untenable it seems without a New Yorker on the ticket.

Dewey or Taft would have to swallow their pride, and neither was any good at that. Yet a Taft-Dewey ticket is probably the only thing that might put the GOP over the top against Hull-Lucas/Farley/Guffey.
 
I'm disappointed in how little love Barkley's getting here. Is there any way at all he could win the nomination? Maybe a deadlocked convention? If so I think he would whup the pants off of any Republican nominee, particularly Taft. He'd be a very interesting war-time president, for sure.
 
Top