BlondieBC
Banned
It is not completely hopeless. There might be a tipping point if the Italians can send enough aircraft, submarines and MTBs to make it very difficult for the British to move merchant ships through the Red Sea. If the British cannot send merchant ships through the Red Sea, they cannot fight a war in Egypt. They will have to attack Italian East Africa before reinforcing Egypt. As Italian East Africa contains some of the most difficult terrain in the World, they may find it difficult to win quickly. If they do not win very quickly, even the Italian Tenth Army might wake up and occupy Egypt (see http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA367611) . If that happens, then even if later Egypt were recaptured, a thoroughly wrecked Suez Canal could stop any further British action in the East Mediterranean. In addition, we may not see a Balkan Campaign etc. and for the time that the East Mediterranean is an Axis lake, we might see German troops allowed through Syria into Iraq.
ps. This is all quite impossible unless Mussolini anticipates the rapid Fall of France as otherwise he needs the aircraft at home![]()
Look at the Rail network. The UK in WW1 built railroads at a rate of 1.5 miles per day. Using trucks, you can supply Egypt via Kuwait. Not ideal. Probably not enough for offensive operation, but enough to defend.
Now if we are just closing the Suez, it is even easier. We can unload at the port at the South of Suez or Jeddah (Medina port). Either has rail all the way in, at least once you rebuild Sinai rail.
Threatening or closing the Suez has huge benefits to the Italians, but it is not the UK land force leaving. The RN will pull out of ports on the Med Coast. This will make the Med Sea an Italian lake. More supplies get through for the Italians. The job of the Italian Admirals gets much easier. New option open up such as Italian landings in Cyprus or Palestine.