1940: better reinforced Italian East Africa

[lionhead]

Lots of questions at the end of this.

What if the Italians had more troops, planes and ships in East Africa when war was declared in June 1940?

I know the biggest problem the Italians had in East Africa was poor supply. I don't wish that away as that would make them pretty much win all of Africa, except South Africa.

With more troops though, they would conquer British Somaliland normally but lets say they have a few thousand more troops(maybe ten thousand) to advance into Kenya and Sudan. Take them away from places like Albania. Also, they would have more planes to keep air superiority and bomb enemy strongpoints and resources.

Also, as they would probably loose but only later, lets place 1 battleship(Andrea Doria) or 2(Giulio Cesare) and some more modern cruisers and destroyers into the Italian Red Sea Flottila, away from the Meds.

Would the commonwealth take away troops from Egypt to deal with the Italians in the South?

Would they take away ships from the Indian Ocean to secure the Red Sea?

Would they have to take away troops out of India or the Middle-East to help?

Can the Italians get further in Kenya like Nairobi perhaps? Would the British give up on Kenya then and have South Africa take control of it to defend their lands?

How much men would the Italians need to link with the North African Campaign from Sudan? How much do they eneed to reach South Africa?

Could the Italians threathen Congo?

Could/would they try an attack on Yemen or Mauritius?

Or, would the resulting lack of ships in the Meds and troops against Greece result in a much quicker defeat of Italia?

Wil be interesting in hearing any thoughts/frowns

 

[BlondieBC]

The problem with an isolated colony when you are a weaker navy than who will attack you is that they are very hard to defend. You really have to build a local arms industry for things like ammo and tank repair. Which means you are industrializing an African colony. Barring some odd POD's, it will not happen. I did it in my TL, but it only worked because the Great Powers ignored Kamerun early in the war and by the time it was obvious it had to be dealt with, the lacked the spare forces. Lack of spare forces is common in WW1 ATL. It will not be common in WW2 ATL since the UK is too weak to fight German land forces directly but needs to do something with its land units.

A better plan for Italy is to remove it better units and only put second or third class units in the Italian East Africa. They are more than enough to hand the locals or light British raids. And even the best units will be unable to stop an dedicated British attack.

 

[Shaby]

Any Italian power projection in Eastern Africa is limited by simple fat that the only ways to communicate with those outpost is either Suez or Gibraltar. This strategic facts are very very hard (if not outright impossible) to redress. Placing any large naval units there just means they are lost the moment Italy declares war on UK.

Central and East Africa cannot be easily attacked from Italian possessions and few more thousand men means nothing, unless they have the capability to supply them while they advance across the wastes of Central Africa. Their supply lines would be constantly harassed and advancing anywhere involves distances of hundreds of miles.

While improving infrastructure in Libya is possible, Mussolini had more to gain from improving infrastructure on the mainland (making trains run on time and autostrada) then from improving a god forsaken province. By the time it's significance became obvious, it was too late to make significant improvements.

 

[Sior]

Just more acres of prisoners for the British to hold!

 

[MikeTurcotte]

Lots of questions at the end of this.

What if the Italians had more troops, planes and ships in East Africa when war was declared in June 1940?

I know the biggest problem the Italians had in East Africa was poor supply. I don't wish that away as that would make them pretty much win all of Africa, except South Africa.

Uh, no. Italians in Ethiopia somehow take Nigeria? Somehow take Egypt? Somehow take Tanzania or Rhodesia? Using what for supplies? It's easy in Axis and Allies, well-nigh impossible in reality.

With more troops though, they would conquer British Somaliland normally but lets say they have a few thousand more troops(maybe ten thousand) to advance into Kenya and Sudan. Take them away from places like Albania. Also, they would have more planes to keep air superiority and bomb enemy strongpoints and resources.

I'll grant British Somaliland (the benefits to Italy having done that are dubious at best). What do the planes use for fuel, and what do they drop. Suez is closed to the Italian, and no land supply route exists.

Also, as they would probably loose but only later, lets place 1 battleship(Andrea Doria) or 2(Giulio Cesare) and some more modern cruisers and destroyers into the Italian Red Sea Flottila, away from the Meds.

The don't lose later, they lose immediately as the British base WARSPITE, VALIANT, RENOWN & Co at Aden. How do these Italian BBs get fuel? The result of the would be a morale-boosting British naval victory in the summer of 1940.

Would the commonwealth take away troops from Egypt to deal with the Italians in the South?

Why bother? With no supply, these troops are essentially POWs in Ethiopia. They have no ability to move, to project power, or to threaten real British interests. The British slowly whittle them down with a few CW regulars and lots of East African militia.

Would they take away ships from the Indian Ocean to secure the Red Sea?

RN Ships are deployed to Aden from a variety of locations. They are back a few months later. It has no impact on RN naval activities in active theatres.

Would they have to take away troops out of India or the Middle-East to help?

No.

Can the Italians get further in Kenya like Nairobi perhaps? Would the British give up on Kenya then and have South Africa take control of it to defend their lands?

Nairobi is a stretch. The British will give up on nothing. South Africa is an active ally. On their way to fight Rommel in Libya, South African troops may be included in the British and Commonwealth forces fighting in East Africa, as they were in OTL.

How much men would the Italians need to link with the North African Campaign from Sudan? How much do they eneed to reach South Africa?

Not the right question. The right question is how many SUPPLIED men do they need to do these things. And, of course, the prewar preparations would have been noted - and reacted to - by the British.

Could the Italians threathen Congo?

No.

Could/would they try an attack on Yemen or Mauritius?

No. Aden would be a Red Sea Sealion. Impossible.

Or, would the resulting lack of ships in the Meds and troops against Greece result in a much quicker defeat of Italia?

Yes. But the real impact is on Japan. With an earlier defeat of Italy, the British may have more ships to deploy (and die) in Ceylon.


Wil be interesting in hearing any thoughts/frowns[/QUOTE]

 

[Uruk]

Didn´t a Japanese ship bring in supplies OTL? Could it be done on a greater scale?

 

[Shaby]

Didn´t a Japanese ship bring in supplies OTL? Could it be done on a greater scale?

?? Where did the Japanese ship brought the supplies?

 

[lionhead]

Well, thanks to BlondieBC, Shaby and Miketurcotte for clearing that up

I knew it would probably be a lost cause, didn't even think about the fact it was isolated of course with no ability to resupply anyway... More is less in this case.

You can say Italy basically wasted a lot of resources to regain a simple piece of land without any important natural resources or strategic assets. They could have used those troops in Greece or Egypt.

Oh well, back to my fantasies.

 

[Mostlyharmless]

It is not completely hopeless. There might be a tipping point if the Italians can send enough aircraft, submarines and MTBs to make it very difficult for the British to move merchant ships through the Red Sea. If the British cannot send merchant ships through the Red Sea, they cannot fight a war in Egypt. They will have to attack Italian East Africa before reinforcing Egypt. As Italian East Africa contains some of the most difficult terrain in the World, they may find it difficult to win quickly. If they do not win very quickly, even the Italian Tenth Army might wake up and occupy Egypt (see http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA367611) . If that happens, then even if later Egypt were recaptured, a thoroughly wrecked Suez Canal could stop any further British action in the East Mediterranean. In addition, we may not see a Balkan Campaign etc. and for the time that the East Mediterranean is an Axis lake, we might see German troops allowed through Syria into Iraq.

ps. This is all quite impossible unless Mussolini anticipates the rapid Fall of France as otherwise he needs the aircraft at home

 

[MikeTurcotte]

Not necessarily. If you want to turn Italy's 1930's war in Africa into something that impacts WWII, then do something different and meaningful that can help the Italians.

Have them lose.

Have their 1936 invasion of Ethiopia fail. Maybe the British reinforce Haile Selassi on the sly. Maybe a sandstorm buries a division. Whatever. Doesn't matter. But turn Ethiopia into Italy's Winter War; a major power embarressed by a much smaller one, like Finland embarrassed the USSR.

Then have Italy learn from that; whatever lessons you think they should learn; a more professional force, better coordination with the airforce, the need for more aggressive unit commanders and generals, whatever. So they lose Ethiopia - big deal. What impact does an Italian Army that is 20% smaller but far more effective have? Then port capacities in Tobruk and Benghazi don't matter so much, then O'Connor doesn't wipe out the Italian 10th Army all by himself, then Greece falls in Oct 1940, and the Germans never have to invade Yugoslavia, pushing up the date for Barbarossa ...

These are much more interesting and plausible outcomes than the Italians storming Nairobi or Jo'Burg.

Mike Turcotte

 

[lionhead]

Then have Italy learn from that; whatever lessons you think they should learn; a more professional force, better coordination with the airforce, the need for more aggressive unit commanders and generals, whatever. So they lose Ethiopia - big deal. What impact does an Italian Army that is 20% smaller but far more effective have? Then port capacities in Tobruk and Benghazi don't matter so much, then O'Connor doesn't wipe out the Italian 10th Army all by himself, then Greece falls in Oct 1940, and the Germans never have to invade Yugoslavia, pushing up the date for Barbarossa ...

But how much can they actually learn in just 4 years? in OTL Greece was their Finland, and they didn't learn much.

Plus, i think they won't be able to defeat the Greeks just because of that. More effective, yet still not prepared for it, no spirit.

 

[phx1138]

Germans never have to invade Yugoslavia, pushing up the date for Barbarossa

That's a persistent myth. Barbarossa could not have gone off any sooner. The weather was awful & the roads were still muck...

 

[lionhead]

That's a persistent myth. Barbarossa could not have gone off any sooner. The weather was awful & the roads were still muck...

Wouldn't it have been launched in April or May then?

 

[Paulo Post]

Not necessarily. If you want to turn Italy's 1930's war in Africa into something that impacts WWII, then do something different and meaningful that can help the Italians.

Have them lose.

Have their 1936 invasion of Ethiopia fail. Maybe the British reinforce Haile Selassi on the sly. Maybe a sandstorm buries a division. Whatever. Doesn't matter. But turn Ethiopia into Italy's Winter War; a major power embarressed by a much smaller one, like Finland embarrassed the USSR.

Mike Turcotte

I'm pretty convinced this is what the Brits and French expected to happen anyway. Italy would try to invade and control a mountainous, roadless, and inaccessible kingdom at the end of a very long supply line, and get bogged down in a long, costly, and ultimately unwinnable war, keeping her out of the Eastern Europe/Eastern Med picture for a long time. No need to imagine sandstorms for this to happen, just a little less engineering capability.
As you point out, it might not have been so hard for the Anglo-French allies to throttle the Suez canal a little bit, at least as far as war materiel was concerned.

 

[Catspoke]

A few possibilities:

a) Mussolini has a plan. start level "War warning 1" to happen one week before war. Load up 4 merchants ships, escort them with a cruiser and quitely push them thrugh the straits of Gibralter befor war. (bring back some merchants too to Italy). Once thrugh the straits they might be hard to catch. One of the merchants is loaded wih aviation fuel. Perhaps arrange other shipments from Japan or some such place. (the level of British patrol was weak off of Somalialand in 1940).

b) Build a big air complex and load up some supply in southern Libya of aviation spares (CR42 parts etc..). Fly these to western Eithiopia someplace regularly. Try to keep the Itailian air effort up there. (CR42s could be sectioned easily and flown in transports)

c) Zeppplins!!!!, regular airship service to East Africa L59 style. Couldn't carry much but for Zepplin enthusiasts what fun.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

Bear in mind that Italy invaded Greece with an estimated 6 weeks of supplies for combat so the need for education is pretty high.

 

[Cockroach]

Also, as they would probably loose but only later, lets place 1 battleship(Andrea Doria) or 2(Giulio Cesare) and some more modern cruisers and destroyers into the Italian Red Sea Flottila, away from the Meds.

Italian Battleline at the outbreak of the war?

Giulio Cesare - operational.
Conte di Cavour -operational
Andrea Doria - finishing modernization (recomissioned October 1940), still needs to work up.
Caio Duilio - finishing modernization (cannot find exact date of recomissioning but sometime between June and October 1940), still needs to work up?
Vittorio Veneto - formally comissioned in April 1940, still working up.
Littorio- formally comissioned in May 1940, still working up.
Impero - launched November 1939 but never completed.
Roma - launched June 1940, comissioned June 1942

Two Battleships fully operational, another four coming online through late 1940 to early 1941... assuming no Taranto raid. Sending any out to the Red Sea means Italy will have to virtually give up the Med for 6 months...

 

[lionhead]

Italian Battleline at the outbreak of the war?

Giulio Cesare - operational.
Conte di Cavour -operational
Andrea Doria - finishing modernization (recomissioned October 1940), still needs to work up.
Caio Duilio - finishing modernization (cannot find exact date of recomissioning but sometime between June and October 1940), still needs to work up?
Vittorio Veneto - formally comissioned in April 1940, still working up.
Littorio- formally comissioned in May 1940, still working up.
Impero - launched November 1939 but never completed.
Roma - launched June 1940, comissioned June 1942

Two Battleships fully operational, another four coming online through late 1940 to early 1941... assuming no Taranto raid. Sending any out to the Red Sea means Italy will have to virtually give up the Med for 6 months...

They would still have 4 "operating" in the Meds by the end of 1940. Still a pretty good fleet-in-being, 4 battleships instead of 6. They don't need to be fully operational. Having to spend less time and feul on ships gives advantage to planes too. More raids on Malta?

The 2 battleships send to East Africa will be lost anyway, i have realised they will be without feul pretty soon at that enclave, or be damaged against enemy ships and no way to repair them.

Air power is more important in East Africa anyway, maybe there should be more focus on that. Like Catspoke said, the problem is supplies for feul. Perhaps they can hire some privateers to hijack some tankers from Iran and Kuwait in the persian gulf and bring them to East Africa.

 

[Catspoke]

Air power is more important in East Africa anyway, maybe there should be more focus on that. Like Catspoke said, the problem is supplies for feul. Perhaps they can hire some privateers to hijack some tankers from Iran and Kuwait in the persian gulf and bring them to East Africa.

You would think that since the Germans were able to run raiders out of Europe into these waters regularly during this part of the war. That loading a merchant out of France September 1940 lets say with avaiation fuel and spare parts would have been doable. When the British surrounded Mogadishu, all the merchants in the port were able to break out because the port was unguarded (most were rounded up other places in the Ocean), but this goes to show the British had many commitments and can't guard everything at this point in the war.

But as people point out, there seems a certain lack of initiative and critical thinking in the Italian war effort that reflect Italy's attitude torward the war and how long they expected it to last when they got in.

 

[Catspoke]

Can the Italians get further in Kenya like Nairobi perhaps? Would the British give up on Kenya then and have South Africa take control of it to defend their lands?

I think your talking Lettow-Vorbeck 1917-1918 style raids, which really couldn't take any strong points, big cities, important ports, because there couldn't be more than about 2000 men traveling fast and light and living off the land to do that sort of thing. It would help if you were raiding a place with sympathetic natives, but no one is going to look at the Italians as liberators.

In OTL, the Italians did a crap job interdicting red sea traffic with the destroyers and subs they did have. Parking an Italian battleship there means like the British will have to escort the important military convoys with a Revenge type battleship, but I wouldn't expect much to happen otherwise.

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How about this, during the Battle of River Platte, the shot the just stunned Langsdorf, kills him instead. Second in command takes over the Graf Spee and instead of going to Uraguay, just dissapears into the night into the Ocean.

Damage is too much to reach Germany, so they go to the sympathetic neutrality of Mogadishu in Italian East Africa, Ship is interned (sort of), but the Germans just sort of flaunt around East Africa and energize the local italians with advice.

During Italys neutral phase, repair parts and equipment are smuggled from Italy, critical personnel are flown in. The German naval personel there realize the value of the East African base, and arrange for neutral merchants loaded with diesel fuel and aviation fuel to arrive before any Italian DOW. A few German pilots are trained to fly SM79s and flow in to help provide naval recon and to annoy any close blockading force.