1939: Hitler and Mussolini attack... Yugoslavia!

It's like this: Hitler has the Czech, Musso has Albania. No war yet. Then, they attack Yugoslavia.

What reason do they have?

How fast do they win?

Will England and France do something?

If the war in Poland still comes: What changes?
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
Italy would be trying to get the territories promised to it as a part of the Treaty of London. The German minority was tiny and dispersed throughout the country, so I'm not to sure what Hitler's cassus belli would be. They would defeat Yugoslavia quickly, especially if they have help from Hungary and Ustashe. But the partisan problem would still be there. France, UK, and Poland would all be alarmed and would accelerate their military re-armament. After seeing Yugoslavia get blitzed all 3 countries would likely put their armies into permament mobilization. I'm assuming no Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, so if Poland goes up against Germany it will be able to try the Romanian bridgehead strategy. France and the UK would probably start carpet bombing German cities from day one of the German invasion of Poland. (It's likely that Germany would have done that to some Yugoslavian cities, so the Allies will have no hesitate about doing that to German cities.) Belgium will probably be more willing to cooperate with the Allies. With the extra preparation time, seeing more of Germany's blitzkrieg tactics, more German losses in Yugoslavia, and German troops held up occupying Yugoslavia, it is likely that France does not fall.
 

Deleted member 94680

Italy would be trying to get the territories promised to it as a part of the Treaty of London. The German minority was tiny and dispersed throughout the country, so I'm not to sure what Hitler's cassus belli would be. They would defeat Yugoslavia quickly, especially if they have help from Hungary and Ustashe. But the partisan problem would still be there. France, UK, and Poland would all be alarmed and would accelerate their military re-armament. After seeing Yugoslavia get blitzed all 3 countries would likely put their armies into permament mobilization. I'm assuming no Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, so if Poland goes up against Germany it will be able to try the Romanian bridgehead strategy. France and the UK would probably start carpet bombing German cities from day one of the German invasion of Poland. (It's likely that Germany would have done that to some Yugoslavian cities, so the Allies will have no hesitate about doing that to German cities.) Belgium will probably be more willing to cooperate with the Allies. With the extra preparation time, seeing more of Germany's blitzkrieg tactics, more German losses in Yugoslavia, and German troops held up occupying Yugoslavia, it is likely that France does not fall.

What extra time? Are you assuming the OP is saying the attack comes in '38? I read it as Germany attacks Yugoslavia instead of Poland in '39.

If the attack is in '39 instead of Poland, then what extra time does France and Belgium gain? The Germans will still be able to attack in '40 as OTL.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
What extra time? Are you assuming the OP is saying the attack comes in '38? I read it as Germany attacks Yugoslavia instead of Poland in '39.

If the attack is in '39 instead of Poland, then what extra time does France and Belgium gain? The Germans will still be able to attack in '40 as OTL.
Germany attacks Yugoslavia in September of 1939, when they attacked Poland OTL. Then they attack Poland in November. Without the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact Poland will probably last for at least a month. Assuming that Germany waits the same time period between attacking Poland and attacking the Low Countries and France, the Allies get one to three months of extra time.

And that's assuming the Allies just don't go all out and smash the Siegfried line when Poland gets invaded.
 

Deleted member 94680

Germany attacks Yugoslavia in September of 1939, when they attacked Poland OTL. Then they attack Poland in November. Without the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact Poland will probably last for at least a month. Assuming that Germany waits the same time period between attacking Poland and attacking the Low Countries and France, the Allies get one to three months of extra time.

And that's assuming the Allies just don't go all out and smash the Siegfried line when Poland gets invaded.

Ah right, you've added your own timeline to the OP's suggestion.

Fair enough, but would 3 months be long enough to make a difference to the French's defence? Weren't their problems more tactical as opposed to deficiencies of equipment, only exposed by exposure to Blitzkrieg? After all, the French had all of the Phoney War (8 months!) to prepare and did essentially cock all.
Come to it, is 3 months long enough for Germany to rest and re-equip after the conquest of Yugoslavia?
 

Insider

Banned
Actually three months would make difference to Polish defence as well. Even if the Germans come on 1 of November they would have to contend with lot of muck, mud, and rain. In September 1939, they were lucky, because it was clear sunny weather, meaning that the Luftwaffe could operate with ease, and there were no hindrances in logistics. Try that in November... again it happens that there actually is a spell of good weather in autumn here, but it usually comes in October.
 

Deleted member 94680

That was my idea. They attack when they have Czech and Albania, but before September. Can WW2 start in time?

Well WWII can start when they attack Yugoslavia if the WAllies decide to declare War. But would they? Didn't the WAllies engineer (to some degree) a coup in Yugoslavia to get them onto the WAllies' side?

Do you see the attack coming 'out of the blue' without a rising period of tension first? Would there be time for a WAllied guarantee to Yugoslavia before the invasion?
 
Actually three months would make difference to Polish defence as well. Even if the Germans come on 1 of November they would have to contend with lot of muck, mud, and rain. In September 1939, they were lucky, because it was clear sunny weather, meaning that the Luftwaffe could operate with ease, and there were no hindrances in logistics. Try that in November... again it happens that there actually is a spell of good weather in autumn here, but it usually comes in October.
And by that time Polish and French armies will be fully mobilized. Germans will have harder work against Poland and there is a bigger chance French attack them from behind. What worse, IIRC winter of 1940 was one of the worst in recent history
 
And by that time Polish and French armies will be fully mobilized.
Unless they decide that the danger point has past and start to demobilise their reserve units. Winter is a bad time for offensive operations and keeping the army fully mobilised damages the country's economy. It's one thing to keep the reserves in uniform while at war, or when war appear imminent, but another to do so when logic and history tell you no attack is likely.
 
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