1939: Britain and France guarantee Polish territory from invasion by Anybody ie Germany AND Russia

Britain and France said they would protect Poland if it was invaded by Germany. What if they had said if anybody invades Poland (ie Russia as well)? Would they go to war with Russia when Russia invades, or would Stalin not invade?
 
Before June of 1940, the Stalin of our time line seems to have overestimated the power of both Britain and France. Indeed, he seems to have based his plans on the assumption that the war between the Anglo-French alliance and Germany would continue through the summer of 1942.

Had France and Britain promised to defend Poland à tous azimuths, and this failed to deter Stalin, the French and the British could have done little more than attack peripheral areas of the USSR. As the most vulnerable spot in the USSR would have been the Pacific littoral, the French and the British would have had to take the attitude of Japan into consideration. That is, they might have had to trade support for the Japanese in China in order to assure themselves a free hand in the vicinity of Vladivostok. This, in turn, would have led to a situation in which the Chinese Nationalists sought support from Germany and the USSR.

Close cooperation between the Anglo-French alliance and Japan would not have pleased the United States, which was, at that time, both pro-Chinese and anti-Japanese. Thus, it would have been harder for President Roosevelt to provide aid to France and Britain and harder still for him to wage an undeclared naval war against Germany.

If the Anglo-French (and, perhaps, Anglo-French-Japanese) operations against the Soviets proved successful, the USSR would have deployed substantial forces to the east, both to regain what was lost and punish the Japanese. While this was going on, the Germans would have been preparing for their invasion of the Low Countries.

The proportion of the Soviet armed forces that Stalin was willing to deploy to the Far East would have depended upon the strength of his belief that a German invasion of the West would have resulted in a return to trench warfare. This, in turn, would be a function of the performance of British and French forces in the Pacific region. If the British and French performed well, Stalin would have been confident of a long war in France and Flanders and thus willing to send more forces to the Far East. If, however, the British and the French performed poorly, then he would have retained a greater proportion of his forces along his western border, to keep watch on his German ally.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Given the 'immediate' reaction GB and France showed against Germany the first 1 1/2 weeks of its invasion into Poland IOTL
... IMO nothing would change at all.

The 'odium' of the - first - agressor lays with Germany, the 'disappearance' of the polish stately authority - official pretext for Stalins invasion into Poland - would be same, the 'reacton' of the Entente powers to this as well as in the winter war ... why should it be much different ? ... only due to some less specific wording of the 'guarantees' given to Poland ?
 

hipper

Banned
in the event of any action which clearly threatened Polish independence, and which the Polish Government accordingly considered it vital to resist with their national forces, His Majesty's Government would feel themselves bound at once to lend the Polish Government all support in their power. They have given the Polish Government an assurance to this effect.

They did
 
This question presupposed that Britain actually cared about Poland for Poles sake.
September 1939, was, as far as British cared "everything going according to keikaku". Germans rolled over Poland, and in the process spend enough of their ammunition that they left west alone for next couple months.
 

Cook

Banned
This question presupposed that Britain actually cared about Poland for Poles sake.
September 1939, was, as far as British cared "everything going according to keikaku". Germans rolled over Poland, and in the process spend enough of their ammunition that they left west alone for next couple months.

Note even remotely correct; Britain signed the Anglo-Polish Agreement because they believed Poland was a serious military power, capable of making Germany to fight a protracted war in its eastern front while Britain and France fought Germany in the west and besieged Germany at sea. In short, Chamberlain and the War Cabinet planned to refight the First World War, with Poland standing in for Russia. It came as a horrendous shock to the British and French governments when Poland fell in a matter of weeks and meant the complete collapse of their grand strategy.
 
Last edited:

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
France and Britain would just go to the warderobe to fetch their hypocrisy hats. Because Poland fell they actually were in need of a new ally, and had hoped they could maybe get USSR on their side. Of course Stalin wasn't very interested at this point.
 
Note even remotely correct; Britain signed the Anglo-Polish Agreement because they believed Poland was a serious military power, capable of making Germany to fight a protracted war in its eastern front while Britain and France fought Germany in the west and besieged Germany at sea. In short, Chamberlain and the War Cabinet planned to refight the First World War, with Poland standing in for Russia. It came as a horrendous shock to the British and French governments when Poland fell in a matter of weeks and meant the complete collapse of their grand strategy.
France? Maybe. Probably. Britain? Hell no.
In open, British claimed Poland was their important ally, but during actual negotiations regarding war credit, or supplies being sent through Romania, British stalled and were generally obtuse. By 1st September Poles realized they've been had, but at this point they were committed.
 
Top