1938 the glove is picked up....

Germany + USSR ?

W. Allies aren't going to tolerate the Germans, who at that point have more in common with an international pariah state like the USSR than anyone else.

Eeek that might give rise to a Nazi-soviet alliance [that sounds familiar for some reason:rolleyes:]
So just say you are right, then we have a contented Germany replete with conquests, Timoshenko is doing his thing [if Stalin doesnt have a paranoid attack over him] and everything in the garden is lovely.
That gives the USSR a second chance at Japan in the far east.
If the Diplomacy is done before anyone has a chance to intervene Nazi- Soviet alliance is pretty hard to beat despite Killer T's [so far unexplaned] massivly expanded armed forces in the U.K and empire
 
..... ..... Basically it is probably the Soviets that have the most to gain from all of this, without Hitler Germany won't jump the USSR, and without Barbarossa to throw a weakened Red Army into the grinder, Timoshenko gets to make his Red Army reforms, industry will be expanded further, and generally the Germans are a big nation duking it out with a titan, Germany is a major power, but the USSR is a superpower.
If the Soviet Union is a "titan", then Germany of that time period is a slightly taller "titan" with flabbier muscles, if Germany is a "big nation", then the Soviet union is another "big nation", just with a slightly smaller industrial base, but more weapons. Germany produced substantially more steel than the Soviet Union before 1945, it is just that Germany failed to turn this industrial potential into as many efficient weapons as the Soviet Union. One of the reasons for this failure is the highly inefficient mode of payment that the armament industry working for the German army received. Another important factor is that the Soviet Union received massive deliveries of weapons and food from the US and smaller amounts from Britain, while Germany had to deliver weapons to her allies. Please read what I wrote in an earlier post about steel production in the two countries:
During any given year between 1938 and 1944 Germany (as defined by its 1937 borders) produced more steel than the Soviet Union. If we add the various territories occupied by Germany after 1937, Germany's superiority over the Soviet Union becomes quite marked: in 1940 it was 19,1 million tonnes for Germany (1937 borders) + 10,7 million tonnes from the German-occupied areas versus 19,0 million tonnes for the Soviet Union. During the next two years in OTL the situation shifted dramatically in Germany's favor: 1941 20,8 + 11,7 for Germany 14,5 for the Soviet Union 1942 20,5 + 12,9 for Germany 10,0 for the Soviet Union.

Even in 1944 Germany produced 18,3 million tonnes and the Soviet Union 16,4 million tonnes.
The link to that post is here: https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showpost.php?p=1953750&postcount=43
 
Steel is obviously important but you can't neglect other factors, another key ingredient, the thing that fueled the very industries producing this steel, was oil from Bessarabia, a Soviet possession, in addition to grains that the Soviets sold to the Germans because by the late 30's they were the only people who were going to touch that regime with a 50 foot pole.

Keep in mind that in the early stages of Barbarossa, the industrial capacity the Soviets had was enormously devastated by the German occupation and obviously transferred over to them, Soviet industry was always strong, but it only bloomed to become the titanic force second only to the United States of America until the war was essentially won for the Soviets with German defeat only being a question of when and not if.
 
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