1938 The confrontation with Germany

[chris N]

Rome: Mussolini had ordered the dispatch of military forces to Romania to help in the defense of that country. Trains were leaving Northern Italy for transit through Austria and Hungary to Romania. Military equipment had been flowing for some time. Italy would be sending some of its newer tank designs with its troops. El Duse had already convinced Austria to send Romania its tanks despite the fact that the newer LT-38 were just starting to come off the assembly line. Italy was standing by Romania and if Russia blinked then Italy would be the power.

Warsaw: The Romanian Ambassador had received a reply to his country's request. He had been called to the Polish Foreign Ministry to receive it. The Italian Ambassador had also met with the Polish Foreign Minister to talk about Romania and Russia. In Another part of Warsaw the lights were burning all night at the Defense Ministry. Telegrams were going out and reservist were being called up. Units on the Russo-Polish Border had gone on full alert. Trans began transporting troops to the east.

Berlin: Kaiser Louis Frederick was briefed on what the Abwehr had found out about what was going on. He picked up the phone and asked to speak with General Beck. He spoke to the General on the phone and was informed that there would be a call up of some reservist, especially in East Prussia.

Paris: The French Premier was getting up when he got a phone call something was happening in the east. Italy had been moving troops to the north and it appeared that they were going east.. The French Military attache in Vienna reported that Austria had shipped its tanks to Romania.
The French Premier shouted into the phone that he wanted answers when he got to the office.

 

[chris N]

March 18,1939 Europe was abuzz with talk of the ultimatum from Russia to Romania. The French Premier was now facing the possibility of strikes by left wing unionist if France got involved in the crisis. Great Britain's Chamberlain was upset at this latest development. Churchill pointed to the threat from the east and pointed out that he had wanted to strangle the Soviets back in 1919.

Trans were busy leaving Northern Italy for Romania. They had to cross into Austria and then Hungary before crossing into Romania. The Italians had now sent 60,000 troops to Romania. Among the forces was Italy's new armored division with tanks that while better than the tnkettes used before were inferior to the Pz III or the Czech T-38.

Berlin: Kaiser Louis Frederick was in the office i the palace. With him was Chancellor Ruphardt , the foreign Minister, Field Marshal Beck, Major Gerneral Gurderian,General Hadler( head of the staff section),Minister Speer ( he had been pardoned by the Kaiser as it was felt that only he could help to get the production of weapons up to snuff. The Minister in charge of fuel was also president.
The Topic for discussion was Romania> It was agreed that this nation was critical for the Reich. A great deal of Germany's fuel needs were supplied by Romania thus any threat to that nation was of grave concern to the Reich. To reach the country Germany would have to gain permission from Austria, Czechoslovakia or Poland to move force to that country. Austria would grant passage but the other two highly unlikely.

The army had recovered from last years disaterious war but it needed more time and the reservist would have to be recalled to the colors.
The 5th Panzer Divisionhad been transfered to East Prussia by sea and the Landwher had been called up to protect the counry eastern provience. Currently there were now 6 divisions available for the defense plus 3 fortress brigades and 3 other Landwher Brigades. Rommel was in command of the 7th Panzer Division in the west. He could with a lot of hard work have his dision on trains and heading south through Austria and Hungary in short order and the 20th Motorized infantry division could join him.

 

[chris N]

The Red army crossed the border into Romania pushing aside the Romanian defense force. They were caught aback when the Romanians and the Italians mounted a counter attack. For five days the tide of battle would swing one way and then the other. The Red Air Foce battled the Romanian and Italians for control of the skies.

Just as the Red Hammer appeared to have smashed the Romanians into submission the Poles, having completed their mobilization launched an attack from the southern part of their country into the Ukraine. It caught the Russians by surprise. The Red Army was forces to pull back or face encirclement. Romania had gained some breathing space and time to recover. the loses had been horrible. Out of 60,000 Italian troops the Italians had suffered 5,000 killed and 10,000 wounded and Romanian loses were just as great. Mussolini was sending reinforcements but the Italian government was now turning to Germany for help.

The question was would the Germans respond.

 

[chris N]

Moscow: Stalin was beside himself when he head that the Poles had dared to attack the Red Army. He had always wanted to extra revenge for the humiliation that he had suffered at their hands in 1920. He summoned his most brillant commander and ordered that he prepare for a counter attack which would crush both the Poles and the Romanians. Both would pay the price. Read army units began moving to the Polish border. This time it would include the giant monster tanks the T-28 and even some of the new KV tanks. The Red Air Force was moving a mass of aircraft to the region to deal with the Italian, Romanian and Poles.

Berlin: More German forces were moving by sea to East Prussia and the mobilization of the German Army continued. It was already expanding from 40 divisions to 52 and now there were plans to mobilize the next wave of 12 more divisions.


Discussion: Any feedback? How do you think that the Poles, Italians and Romanians would do? Romania had received all of Austria's Lt-35 tanks and from Germany they received 24 that had been captured and repaired. This gave the Romanians another94-100 tanks. Italy has leared from the last conflict that its tankettes are no go and it has raced ahead with the tank design that would be the mainstay of the Italian Army for most of WWII in OTL. Even with the newer tanks the Italians are not in exactly a great position.

 

[Astrodragon]

Has Stalin been leaning on the Finns in this timeline? If he has, I could see them mobilising too, although not doing anything more.

I would have thought Britain at least would be much more in support of the countries facing off against Russia. One of the reasons for letting Germany go in the 30's was the fear of Russia, now Germany looks (relatively) harmless (they slashes naval contruction, which always goes down well in the UK
I would see a lot more support, in material at least. You might well see some under-the-table support for germany if they joined in against Russia.
And whilh France has a bigger commumist party, I dont think theyd be to happy at Stalin either.

 

[chris N]

Discussion: Stalin had not yet begun to lean on the Finns. He had decided to first apply pressure to the Romanians, regaining land lost at the end of WW1 and then try to gobble up the Baltic States before turning the heat up on Finland.

Great Britain has been showing an overall lack of leadership. Chamberlain's flaws have begun to show and his days as Prime Minister are numbered. As For France the current government has shown some strength Reyaund if by far stronger than the previous Prime Minister. There looks like there could be a battle with the communist to see who runs France

 

[chris N]

France's Premier was prepared to play hardball with the unions if they should try to strike. He intended to take a page from another French Premier who when the railroad workers struck had them drafted into the army . Those that didn't show up were shot and the strike came to an end.

Germany: The Imperial War Council was called to order to see what steps Germany would take. Chancellor Rupphardt stated that he had talke to the governing parties members in the Reich-stag an they would support the Government. However, the Social Democrat Party leader expressed concern about Germany getting involved in another war less than 7 months after the last one ended. The army was increasing in size and there now was enough equipment to expand the Army to the 64 division level but it would take time to out fit the next 12 divisions fully. Field Marshal Beck recommended not commuting the army until late May.

Admiral Canarais: According to what we have learned the Russians are about to strike back at the Poles with an estimated 60 divisions. ( A Gasp went up from the Kaiser and some of the others). The Red Air Force has struck back at the Poles and have bombed Warsaw. We have reports of a monster of a tank moving with the Russian Panzer units. I estimate that the Poles will suffer badly from the attack.

Kaiser Louis Frederick: How prepared are we to deal with the Russians?

Field Marshal Beck: Curently a third Army Corp has arrived in East Prussia. Fortifications there have been improved a great deal over the past 7 months. As for the OST Wall we currently have 14 divisions facing Poland. 2 are Panzer and 2 are Motorized while the other 10 are infantry. The Ost Wall will hold.

 

[chris N]

Recap of current World situtation: Russian forces had attacked Romania after that country refused to turn lands claimed by Russia to them. The Red army then attacked and after adding additional forces they began to gain ground in Romania. Just when it appeared that the Russians would win the Poles launched an attack into the Ukraine and the Russian withdrew to prevent encirclement. Stalin was furious and order a major attack into Poland.

Russian bombers have bombed the Polish capital causing minor damage. Polish fortifications and forces hope to hold the Russians back but Poland has no idea that the Russians will be using some of their heavy tanks.

France is currently dealing with an internal conflict as the government has derided to crush the pro-communist labor movement once and for all. The French Premier has drafted the striking workers . When some refused the orders to report they were tried by Military courts and convicted of desertion and shot.

Great Britain. Labor has stated that it does not see the country has any obligation to Poland or Romania. Mr Chamberlain has remained silent while Mr Churchill urged the government to act against the Red menance.

Germany: The Imperial war council has been preparing Germany for war but so far that is it. There is concern over the situtation in Romania but little sympathy for Poland.

Czechoslovakia: country is selling weapons to Romania but has remained neutral in the war. After all Russia came to the Czech's aid in the last war.

Austria: While the Austrian Chancellor is a close friend of the Italian leader Austria remains ill equipped to go to war. It sent all of its Pz 35 tanks to Romania. Currently The Austrians only have 12 new T-38 tanks.

Hungary : Anti communist but it has little feeling of warmth for its neighbor.

 

[chris N]

The German Military High Command was currently working on the creation of a force that could be sent to Romania. Currently the VI Panzer Corp had been created. It would consist of the 5th and 7th Panzer Division and the 20th Motorized Infantry Division. Another Corp was being created and assigned to it was the 6th Infantry Division. At this point there were arguements in the Heer as to who should be appointed as the commander of both corps and who should receive command of the Army. (Okay I am now open to suggestions. Currently Rommel has gotten command of the 7yh Panzer Division),

 

[chris N]

The German High Command had assigned the reactivated 40th Infantry to the XXIX Infantry Corp. This was the force that was being organized for possible intervention in Romania. Another Division was being considered for the corp. The Army which would command this Corp and the IV Panzer Cop was now offically designated the 11th Army. There was still an arguement regarding the Corp Commander and the Army Commander.

 

[chris N]

The Kaiser's father the former Crown Prince pays a visit to East Prussia to inspect the growing German forces there and to raise the morale of the people. Mobilization has put 12 divisions in this most eastern part of Germany. Field Marshal Leeb has arrived to assume command of the Army in the province.

The candidates to command the 11th Army are now Field Marshal List, Field Marshal von Rundstedt , General Kluge and another candidate. Hans Guderian has been named as the Panzer Corp commander. Oberst Mainstein has been named as the Army's Chief of Staff.

 

[Hecatee]

Would Guderian still get a command after his capture in Austria in the previous war ?

Guderians panzer division was shattered by the attack. more than 90 tanks were destroyed and an equal number were damaged. The austrians were able to cause such a panic that they captured nearly 60 of the German machines as well as artillery pieces and most embarrassingly Hans Guderian himself.

 

[chris N]

Hans Guderian was given the command at the recommendation of the Chancellor. He had fought against Hans during the last war and found him to be a dedicated professional officer. Plus there was the factor that Hans had spent the intervening period overseeing the improvements to the Armored forces of the Reich. Still he was not everyone's top choice.

By now the 11th army had been growing in strength as more divisions from the reserve became available. The Army had gone through 2 waves of call up expanding to 62 divisions when the third wave was called up. This would bring the army to 74 fully equipped divisions.

Field Marshal List had been given command of the 11th Army which had now seen a third corp added to its strength. It currently had 2 panzer,2 motorized and 8 infantry divisions. Former General Jodl was serving now as a colonel in the 27the Infantry division assigned to this army. The General Staff had now also activathed the 18th Army which currently was given to General Kluge. It had 1 corp with 4 divisions.

 

[Geekhis Khan]

Discussion: Any feedback? How do you think that the Poles, Italians and Romanians would do? Romania had received all of Austria's Lt-35 tanks and from Germany they received 24 that had been captured and repaired. This gave the Romanians another94-100 tanks. Italy has leared from the last conflict that its tankettes are no go and it has raced ahead with the tank design that would be the mainstay of the Italian Army for most of WWII in OTL. Even with the newer tanks the Italians are not in exactly a great position.

On Italy:

They learned that the tankettes were insufficient, but as best as I can tell they were only partly involved in the "Hitler War" via "volunteers", so they probably haven't learned their real weakness: poor command and control. Their upper leadership is filled with party hacks, old-school Savoy generals stuck in a Napoleonic mindset, and sycophants to Mussie and no one save Balbo and to a lesser degree Grandi and Ciano are willing to tell Mussie what he doesn't want to hear.

Number two issue is still there too: a very limited Industry. There's no blockade and they have trade with all their neighbors, but they can only build so much. They may have learned that they need radios in their tanks and aircraft, but can they make enough? Can they make enough of the new tanks, which are still going to be no match for the upcoming Soviet big boys?

In general:

I can see the current "allies" (Italy, Romania, Poland, etc.) holding back the Soviets for a limited time, but not too long. The Soviets will not have lend-lease, but I believe they still have far more industrial capacity than the "allies". Even with better weapons and if Italy manages to get past its command/control issues they're eventually going to get swamped by sheer numbers.

Best case they hold on long enough for the larger western allies to mobilize.

 

[chris N]

Discussion: You have hit the nail on the head. Italy has a lack of industrial capacity to meet the needs of its military as well as its civilian population. The Military received the reports of its military attaches as wellas the Austrian Military regarding combat during the Austria-Czech-vs Germany war. While it has been able to move ahead with better tanks they are still no better than the ones that Italy used for most of the war.

Italy has raced to put new aircraft into service and it may be able to match the soviets in the skies. There are some capable Italian officers but it appears that all too few of them are going to the war in against the Reds.

Romania and Poland are co-operating but neither country had the military industry needed to fight the war. Poland has appealed to Franch for Military aid and the French are sending tanks, trucks and planes to the east. The French Premier has needed to crush the strikes by the left before he can move the country forward.

As for the British it appears that Chamberlains days are numbered and the choice will be whether Churchill or Halifax gets to be the next Prime Minister.

The real Hope of Romania is Germany. Only this country has the Military Mussle to challenge the Russians. Trouble is that there is little love for the Poles in German as a result of Danzig.

 

[seraphim74]

I think if Poland is pressed hard enough Polish government might start some secret talks with Germany about giving up Danzig and perhaps even an exterritorial highway across the Corridor. Such ideas were entertained earlier IOTL, even before Hitler put it in his demands. Now, Germans' reaction is a problem. Germany has quite well fortified eastern border and experienced army. They might very well allow Poland to fall or at least get hurt very badly because they might believe Germany itself is not so much threatened (Eastern Prussia also had some strong, while something old fortifications). So the Poles bleed the Soviets out and then Germany enters the war, beats the Soviets and gets from Poland what it wants. In Germans' opinion weak Poland is a good thing and they might demand also Upper Silesia and most of the Corridor with Polish enclave around Gdynia and exterritorial highway between Gdynia and Poland. Full return to 1914 borders is IMO out of the question and I think even Germans would have not demand it - giving up Great Poland would have been absolutely unacceptable to the Poles.

 

[chris N]

The German General Staff was paying close attention to the war taking place on the Polish-Russian Border. The Poles had shown great determination and courage but it was the opinion of the General staff's experts that it was nly a matter of time before the weigh of Russian offensive was able to breech the Polish defensive works.

The Abwher was having a difficult time getting an accurate feel for what was happening on the ground. Germany did manage to get some high altitute photo recon of the area in question, even into Russia.

There were those in the German government that desired the absolute crushing of the Polish state but neither the Kaiser nor his Chancellor thought that would serve Germany's long term interest. The Kaiser and the Chancellor did an inspection tour of the OST WALL to see how good it really was. They also inspected the 1st and 2nd Panzer divisions which had been re-equipped with the newer Panzer III with the 50mm gun and more Panzer IV.

It was now April 7,1939 and the Russian were preparing to launch a new offensive into Romania. The Romanians had just received some more LT-35 tanks fro Czechoslovakia. These would be the last shipment as the Czechs were no longer making them. The new LT-38 would soon be produced in massive numbers and the first priority would be the Czech Army and then Austria. It was estimated that the Romanians had maybe 300 tanks. The Italians had perhaps an equal number but they were armed with either the 37mm gun or the 47mm gun. Romania's only hope would be the Army Gruppen Romania as the German 11th and 18th Armies were being called.
General List was being promoted to Army Group command.

 

[chris N]

Oberst E von Mainstein left German with an Advanced team for Romania They were to check the facilities that might be needed in country and any transportation problems. The Chancellor of Austria after consulting with Kaiser Otto (although some referred to him as Archduke Otto since all he was the monarch of was Austria) was now authorizing the raising of a Volunteer force of 2 Divisions (forming a Corp within the Austro -German 18th army).

Spain also notified the government of Germany as it as willing to provide a division of Volunteers plus support staff if Germany provided the equipment. Germany accepted the Spanish offer and the 250th Infantry Division was born.

 

[Paul MacQ]

I see the Story has come a long way Chris well done and interesting.

Could Talks happen between France and Germany regarding French Taking responsibility for Supporting Poland and Germany concentrating on Romania?

Romania is militarily weaker than Poland at this time; 12 – 15 French Divisions added to the Polish Forces could mean a Stalemate situation here, most importantly by now France has the airpower to resist the Russian superiority. France has had a build up despite the Communist uprisings and would need permission of Germany to get troops there or more risky option of supporting them by sea. Romania is also more important industrially to Germany

Russian Baltic fleet might cause the Germans problems, yet the French have about the 4th most powerful Navy in the world at the time. Maybe spheres of influence French in the North and Germany in the South.

Situation for Russia it needs to get the fight over quick or it will face Stalin’s worst nightmare a united Europe against the USSR.

Italy France(still war weary after WW1) Germany and other Nations onside supporting Romania and Poland that are starting to bleed the Russians, Stalin is going to be able to raise less support at home and will be seen more as the aggressor that made war. The extremes of passions raised by Germanys OTL Barbarossa will be harder to rise.

Whether Britain gets involved or not Russia has the probability of facing at least twice the Man power it did OTL. And more than 3 times the industrial capacity, I am thinking even if Britain stays out of the fight they will add there industrial Might to the fight, And Hurricanes and British Bombers flying over the front in other Countries markings. (Finland you have a Boarder with the Russians want some advanced fighters if you need to defend yourself?? and hey have some Blenheim Bombers to help them. Oh short of AA guns sure have some 3” guns as a stopgap we are Getting bigger newer guns Oh we have a few Dozen Cruiser Tanks let us know how they do in the cold if you can .) No need to even fight yet spreads Russia purely having to have reserves in area just in case. Can possibly do the same with Turkey also

The USSR is a Threat to the Empire, but also the vulnerable under belly like the 70% of Russia’s oil Production is within Bomber reach of British airfields in Iraq. Unless Stalin withdraws a large Chunk of his Forces from his western Front he is very likely to be ripped apart, British Empire does not need the Baku oilfields like Hitler OTL so cripple those and the Caucasus fields Russia will become more a Horse drawn an army than OTL Germans.

British Empire can get 500-600,000 Troops into Persia (a big chunk from, India not sure infrastructure would be there to supply) and supply Air force that Russia would struggle to meet with what is happening in the Western Front.

Fighter wise this is too early for the likes of the Yak and LaG fighters (not in large production till 1941). Almost all of Russia’s air defence will be made of Polikarpov Fighters more of a match for Polish PZL’s than German BF109s. Then add French MS406 the Italian Monoplane fighters and BF109s these will all cause the Russian air force massive grief. Add later to that the likes of British Hurricanes (being produced at about 5 a day by this time and 10 a day by mid 1940) and later Dewotine D520s Bloch 152’s and Spitfires. Fighters in numbers the Germans would have cried for in OTL Operation Barbarossa.

The skies will belong to the allies because of numbers and quality. In short order, Then Russia will face an armed and ready Europe already Mobilized, but do they have the will to fight another long war, I think they will want to finally end the threat of Communism. And they chance now is better than waiting longer.

This would mean for the likes of France being finally able to fight a war that is not inside the Boarders of France and can build for a war, Britain and France each were outbuilding Germany by May 1940. Now there industries are not in such a desperate state. And both would have had trouble at home with Communists.

Stalin Backs down now or he is screwed, but if he backs down his position at home becomes very very uncomfortable. He started a war that the USSR is going to loose

 

[chris N]

The French Ambassador approached the German Foreign ministry with a proposal from the French Premier regarding Poland. The Foreign Minister woke up the Chancellor. The Chancellor in turn had the Kaiser woken up as well as Generals Beck, and Admiral Canarais. Field Marshal List was recalled to Berlin and Field Marshal Leeb was also recalled.

The German governments answer was a proposal to allow French armaments to be shipped directly to Poland From France. French aircraft would be allowed to fly to Poland. The German government also agreed to the shipment of French forces through Germany. Germany in turn wanted the rights to have a highway connection from Germany to East Prussia. It also wanted alterations to the Polish Occupation of Danzig. These were Key requirements.

The Kaiser Gave his approval for the deployment of forces to Romania, which was currently facing another Russian offensive. The Russian had now sieze most of the territory that they claimed in Romania. In Poland the Poles defensive line was breeched by the Russian monster tanks. The Polish government upon having the German demands explained to them were surprised that they were not demanding much more. They quickly agreed to the terms. Word was sent in coded telegram to Paris and then the French gave the Germans word that the term was agreed to.

French Trains were allowed through Germany to Poland . They were bearing the French Expeditionary Force . It consisted of 2 armored divisions and 2 Mechanized Cavalry divisions and 4 Infantry divisions.
More troops would be dispatched latter Aboard the trains were also supplies for the Polish army- artillery pieces, tanks, antitank guns, planes etc.

The German army forces were moving even as this happen through Austria and Hungary into Romania. The 18th Army had been joined by an Austrian Corp consisting of 2 volunteer Divisions plus the Croatian and Slovenian Brigades. the 18th Army also had attached to it the new 250th "Blue " Division from Spain. Germany had provided all of the forces with equipment. The Austrian Corp forces continued to wear Austrian not German uniforms but they left their rifles and machine gunes at home and received German equipments.

German Forces in East Prussia now totaled 12 divisions plus 6 Brigades and the forces along the Ost Wall had now reached 24 Divisions. Wave 4 of the mobilization was now to be called up and this would provide the German Army with 86 divisions.
Production of weapons was going all out.