1937 Israel

I'd like to say No Holocaust as the Jews have a place to go and avoid the Nazis and Stalinists but I don't think the Yishuv would have had the military infrastructure to repel the inevitable Arab invasion.
 
I see three possible scenarios:

1: Germany and Isreal make a deal for Germany to send it's Jews to the newly formed Jewish state. They probably stay neutral to get more of a Jewish population, and hence become more Zionist, and the holocaust isn't as bad as OTL. (Though with a smaller Isreal I don't know how a stronger sense of Zionism would work)

2: Isreal sides with the allies and possibly gets invaded but it eventually gets liberated and things go the same as OTL (Isreal could possibly get a communist government through an election and Join the Warsaw Pact but I doubt it)

3: Same as 1 but Isreal somehow becomes facist and joined the Axis. Result: Palestine annexes Isreal. (Extremely unlikely)
 
I'd like to say No Holocaust as the Jews have a place to go and avoid the Nazis and Stalinists but I don't think the Yishuv would have had the military infrastructure to repel the inevitable Arab invasion.
Though in 1937, one would have to ask: what Arab invasion? They wouldn't have the capability at that point (they barely had it in 1948). Plus the Peel Plan could only be made to work if it had London as guarantor, in fact as enforcer. (Not that London wanted to get any deeper in than it already was, which is why the 1937 Plan was not implemented.) But suppose London decides to go full in for Peel in 1937, that creates potentially serious butterflies for relations with the Arab states (above all Egypt) and even Iran. Assuming these butterflies have no consequences for WW2, not a lot necessarily changes from OTL. There might be talks about talks between Israel and Berlin (scenario 1), but they would get nowhere; neither side could possibly trust the other. Given the utter dependence of such a ATL-Peel Israel on London, scenario 2 is most likely (though not the getting invaded part; not going to happen, Axis logistics in the Med would prevent it), which would mean Israel would acquire military cadres (plus some surplus equipment) that would give its forces similar capability to the OTL Yishuv, only perhaps earlier. (The template here is the OTL Jewish Brigade which provided the infant IDF with some key officers.) Scenario 3 is high-powered ASB.
Like you I would like to hope this would prevent the Holocaust but it wouldn't. Even assuming that the problem OTL is the Jews of Europe not having a place to go (arguable), there is the very big logistic issue of getting Jews out of Poland (by far the biggest European Jewish population) and across the continent and sea to Israel. Once the war starts and Poland is occupied, that's not going to happen. It would require (1) lots of transport resources - far more than the OTL deportations - also (2) lots of effective cooperation from other countries with no particular interest in helping (e.g. Romania, Turkey) and (3) large-scale cooperation between the opposing sides in the war - not just the small-scale stuff that happens in most wars e.g. exchange of interned diplomatic personnel etc. I doubt any of the three. All that said, an ATL Israel would probably help at the margin, if only by making it clear that the Jews were not quite friendless. One can posit, for instance, the existence of officials in Axis countries who took part reluctantly in round-ups etc and who might have been swayed the other way by a slightly different structure of incentives.
 
Plus the Peel Plan could only be made to work if it had London as guarantor, in fact as enforcer.
Ok. But what about at the end of the war? The British empire is still going to collapse, who keeps the peace then. The UN? If so would there still be a war in this TL between Palestine and Isreal? If so would it have a different outcome than OTL or would it be the same?
 
I think Peel works if the Arab portion were ceded to Jordan (as was the plan IIRC). Jordan's king was friendly with the Zionists and didn't like the Mufti very much.

The Jews of Germany, Czechoslovakia, and Austria who suffered from 1937-1939 historically would likely escape. I think a Holocaust with 2 million fewer deaths is a strong possibility.

Turkey helped Jews escape from Europe historically. I'm not sure why they wouldn't here.
 
Turkey helped Jews escape from Europe historically. I'm not sure why they wouldn't here.
I was thinking of the difference between helping Jews on a relatively small scale to the huge humanitarian effort that would be needed to get millions more out. The key thing would be the attitude of the Nazis, of course.
 
The Peel plan would require massive British involvement and that could lead to earlier development of the Haganah into the IDF. The plan also calls for the establishment of a Palestinian state which may or may not want British overlords regarding foreign or irredentist policy. The Hashemites needed the British but may have to appease the Palestinian street which while smaller in Amman at this time is not insignificant. That would be the most likely source of an Arab invasion. Also likely is perfidious Albion setting the Zionists up for a fall. The arms shipments were late , too bad. Lets send our ships throught the Suez to pick up gulf oil .
 
Why not pick a place from one of these.

mhovoI7.jpg
 
Well, it wouldn't be Israel as in OTL. It would be a "Dominion" or some such under British protection and authority, with a Governor-General. There would be no Arab invasion. Britain would stick around until after the war. By then *Israel would be too strong to attack, I think. Though see below.

The new state would have its own military force, subordinate to the British army and RAF.

As to immigration - presumably it would be open to unlimited Jewish immigration, allowing many more Jews to leave Europe and escape Nazi persecution and murder. However, it would not be a panacea. The vast majority of European Jews lived in countries where they were reasonably safe and prosperous, and saw no reason to migrate to a desert infested with hostile natives. Many saw Zionism as a betrayal of the Jewish struggle for civil equality in Europe. The most traditional Orthodox Jews saw Zionism as presumptuous, even blasphemous - defiance of God's will that the Jews remain in exile till the Messiah came. The Jews of the USSR weren't much interested either, nor were they free to go.

These people fell into Nazi hands due to the "blitzkrieg" conquest of their countries: by the time they were afraid enough to run, they were already conquered.

Nonetheless, it seems probable that many more would have gotten away. German, Austrian, and Czech Jews were allowed to emigrate before the war (at the cost of their property), and most did. Unfortunately, many found "refuge" in nearby countries that were conquered.

OTL, many Jews tried to escape via neutral countries or through less-hostile Axis countries such as Bulgaria and Italy, But with no final destination, these "pipeline" countries filled up and became reluctant to admit more refugees. If *Israel is available, they have somewhere to go, and the pipeline doesn't clog.

Also, at the start of the war, the Nazis were still mainly focused on removing the Jews, and a country was just as Judenrein if the Jews left as if they were killed. If there was somewhere for them to go, a large proportion of OTL's victims would escape - at least a million IMO.

This has huge consequences for Israel. No miraculous War of Independence victory. It's possible that the Arabs would be so enraged by the establishment of a Jewish state in the Dar-al-Islam that they would invade despite the vastly stronger Jewish state, backing off only when they have been beaten up.

Other huge consequences would be the much larger starting population of Israel, and the much higher proportion of Ashkenazim to Mizrahim compared to OTL. (Even if, as OTL, the Arab countries still expel the Jews to Israel.)

An earlier consequence would be the immense strain placed on *Israel by having to accommodate such a number of completely destitute immigrants during the war. I could see serious social strain between the refugees and the settled Zionists. The Zionists would have good intentions toward the refugees, but they could be overwhelmed, and the desperate refugees would become a devouring plague. Both sides might blame the British for not helping enough; the US might be called on to provide. There could be serious hardships: refugees living for years in tents and hovels, not enough to eat, outbreaks of disease.

Yet another consequence could be the absence of Arabs from *Israel - OTL they remian a substantial demographic and political bloc. That's if Arabs are forcibly removed from the Jewish zone, which seems to have been in the Peel Plan. (That would be another reason for an Arab war on *Israel.

Final point: The international zone with Jerusalem would be a flashpoint. If the British leave, there will be a fight unless perhaps one side grabs the area pre-emptively. But who gets Temple Mount?
 
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