1930s Germany without the Soviet Union

Deleted member 1487

Do you think the Hungarian communist revolution, or the communist uprisings in Germany, would not have happened absent Soviet involvement? I mean, the fascists had no problem rising up without the existence of a fascist great power.
They were specifically inspired by the success of the Soviet movement and were aided by Soviet agents after they happened; the context of the 1918-19 uprisings were then perceived within the context of a world wide revolution, both in the minds of the 'capitalists' and communists. Part of the Soviet offensive against Poland was to link up with the German communists and spread the revolution, as well as aid the flagging German uprising. IMHO the uprisings in German and Hungary would have happened, but been somewhat different and probably less popular than they were IOTL without a Soviet faction doing so well in Russia.
Fascism is a different ideology with a different set of motivations, especially in the societies where they took hold. Soviet communism didn't need outside influence to be the first movement to rise up, but then Russia had a very different social context than Central Europe or much of Western Europe where fascism had an easier time. German Fascism or at least Nazism did require the inspiration of the Italian model to get off the ground, or at least Hitler had claimed that Mussolini 'showed the way'. In Spain both the Nazis/Italian Fascists and the Soviet Communists were needed to help both sides of the Spanish civil war get off the ground (more so the Nationalists requiring outside support than the Republicans).

Ironically despite communist theory, it was only in more agrarian, authoritarian countries that communism could take off as a movement, while in countries that were more industrial and had more democracy communism was unable to convert the workers or appeal to the middle class, while Fascism was more appealing.

Mussolini was appointed Prime Minister amidst massive socialist unrest in Italy.
Its funny how the war turned Italy from a socialist hotbed into the fascist homeland. Mussolini himself had been a socialist until the war happened and he joined the military.
 
The question is how did Russia avoid going red. If it lasted long enough to win the war it will be a vastly different beast than if it peaced out with Germany and managed to avoid communism by either a civil war and/or simply a massive loss of territory etc.

In either case Russia wont be a pariah which changes a lot. Russo-french relations are a crucial question.

If Russia ended up with a change of government I can see them not wanting to pay their debts towards France which is a great opportunity to Germany. In this case I see a much better Russo-German relation - even better than OTL simply because even the germans werent a fan of communism. In this scenario Russia and Germany have a common interest in Poland and could agree on other partitions like Germany gets Ausgleich Russia gets the Baltics etc much like OTL. The west could react much like OTL. The difference would be that a German-Russian alliance could be real and lasting.

If Russo-french alliance survives Germany will be in a really tight spot. Even worse is a victorius Russia for Germany. France might not had the will OTL to enforce Versailles but Russia will. Germany will be in a hopeless situation even if Brittain decides to support it. As long as France and Russia remain allies and have already beaten Germany they are the masters of Europe and there is nothing to change that. I cant imagine how Germany would react to such a hopeless situation. ITTL even if Hitler is elected Russia and/or France will intervene and remove him.
 
I see two things that seem to be misunderstood here.

The NSDAP was originally a socialist and racist organization. There a reason the name translates to National Socialist Workers Party in English. Hitler & the other founding members were profoundly racist & eagerly bought off on the 'Aryan' racial doctrine. This ran at the core of Hitlers policies for Germany, both internally and in foreign relations, and ran to the end of his reign of terror. The appeal of the anti semitism and anti Slavic rhetoric ran through both the working and middle classes, and even among the wealthy. While Germany was deeply influenced by liberal thinking pre 1914 social trends and the post 1914 economic problems reinvigorated racists among the Germans. The anti Bolshivik line came to Hitlers speeches later & was intended to appeal to middle class voters who had not bought into the racial sales pitch.

Absent a Communist government in the east Hitler would have simply applied the Jewish overlords label to any other government. Instead of Jewish Bolshivik rulers & it would have been Jewish bankers/ democrats/ fascists/ whatever, ruling the inferior Slavic race in the east. The US was not Communist, but Hilters official line was the place was a mongrel race controlled by Jewish bankers & therefore unworthy as a nation. I suspect even a facist government of the former Russian Empire would have been passed off as a front for the Jewish conspiracy, overlaying a population of degenerate Slavs.
 
One of the reasons why WWI started was that Germany felt that it was only up to 1916 that they could have a war with Russia while there was still a window of possibility of them winning. They did overrate the pace of Russia's military reforms post 1908 but the basic reasoning was sound (as they discovered in 1941-5 OTL). So the German army and people would be profoundly unenthusiastic about a rematch following 25 years of Russian economic and military development.

The political leaders of the Russian Republic were all keen on economic development just differing on how to best achieve this. Denekin, Wrangel, Boldyrev, Kappel, Kornilov, Kolchak, Alexiev, Yudenich et al were all pro military and communications/logistics modernisation so, even in a worst case scenario of a military dictatorship, industrialisation would continue.
Now Russia was hurt and exhausted by WWI and there was a lot of infrastructure damage in the West-no argument from me on that. But as far as the industrial economy was concerned (mainly in Petrograd, Kiev, Moscow and Tsarityn at that point), it took the Civil War and War Communism to do serious damage - and mainly War Communism, the Civil War didn't really hit the streets of the main industrial cities. No Civil War and no War Communism, some territorial gains at Turkey's expense and a share in German reparations? Along with no murder, imprisonment or mass migration of scientists, industrialists, managers and engineers (including Zworykin, Seversky and Sikorsky) Russia would have been roughly where she was economically in 1933 ten years earlier (so even with a slower rate of industrialisation than under Stalin (which I personally doubt) they would still outstrip him due to their ten or fifteen years head start). Not to mention being more integrated in the world economy from 1917 onwards (no defaulted debts or lack of diplomatic recognition so they could buy in as well as build). By 1938/39 Russia would be at least as much, and probably more, industrialised (granted with more of their industry this side of the Urals) than OTL. They would also have a more modern and competently led army and a much better airforce with no purges (and likely some post war experience in Finland, Poland, the Baltics, Middle East and China to keep them sharp too) and very unlikely that Germany would have the inclination to take them on. Unlikely to be a lot of German industrialists bankrolling a Hitler hostile to their greatest trading partner in 1932/33 either. Nor would Britain, France or the USA be quite as accommodating to Germany as OTL if Hitler did become a serious political factor -Russia would be a massive trading partner for them too.
And finally I don't think Russia would have been as keen on the Polish corridor as the Western powers if present at Versailles. And for some reason that was the territorial loss that really rankled with the Germans. Even the Communists opposed it OTL.
 
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